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Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

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Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#31

Post by chiefalchemist »

photochemsyn wrote: post #22

IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007... https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1... forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent " reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession sinc…

The IMF is as much a political organization as it is a financial one. With a HQ in Washington, DC they're certain to drink the same water as all the other political BS artists. They're also not going to toss the World Bank, the Central Banks, etc. under the bus.

The point is, there's a difference between proper forecasts and (what amounts to) propaganda.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#32

Post by Enginerrrd »

photochemsyn wrote: post #22

IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007... https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1... forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent " reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession sinc…

It's complicated because the forecasts of the system themselves can have some effect on the system they're forecasting.

Because of people chasing alpha in the markets, any forecast with too much predictive power will tend to alter the system in ways that reduce its predictive power

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#33

Post by dkjaudyeqooe »

willcipriano wrote: post #20
toomuchtodo wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People leaving the workforce is definitely good for wages, we agree on that, and to get higher wages labor will have to organize. I just haven't seen any data that immigration (regardless of type) is contributing in any meaningful way towards keeping wage inflation down. I didn't flag your comment btw, I thought that was a bit aggressive by whoever did that considering the comment content, but I don't have permission…

Labor and housing. The only places in economics where supply/demand is never a factor. Such a convenient way for the universe to arrange itself for the people in power who want immigration huh?

Immigration is a reality, it always has been. There is no broad support for cutting off legal immigration, it's uncontrolled immigration that most people object to.

The US has always had huge levels of immigration and probably always will.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#34

Post by themagician »

cj wrote: post #12
ulfw wrote: post #6

Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years

On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…

Things are different now. The reality is that probably close to 80-90% of self-described software engineers face permnanet unemployment as they will be replaced by low paid "prompt engineers", likey from India. It's already happening and it's happening at scale. The top 10% will see enourmous income gains as they will be the only people left who actually know what they are doing and how to correct mistakes that can't be corrected via prompt. If you are great you are good. If you are average you are !@#$ed.

The shift is happening fast. It won't be measured in years, but weeks and months. By year's end everything will be different. In 24 months entire career paths will be obliterated and there is no time to retrain. It's a cotton gin moment.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#35

Post by [deleted] »

photochemsyn wrote: post #22

IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007... https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1... forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent " reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession sinc…

[deleted]

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#36

Post by EduardoBautista »

AlotOfReading wrote: post #23
cj wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…

What do you consider "unrealistically high", because I find that hard to apply to what I'm seeing. For example, I was recently contacted about a bay area principal engineer spot for 150-190k. To give some context, a fast food place near my house has signs in the window offering 160k+ for managers. Maybe fast food is paying exceptionally well these days, but I have my doubts.

I cannot imagine the stress of being a fast food manager. I wouldn't survive a week.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#37

Post by hef19898 »

AlotOfReading wrote: post #23
cj wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the flip side, tech was booming during Covid when a ton of people in retail, restaurants were affected. All industries and all sectors can’t always be booming without there being a perpetual bubble. We have trouble finding good engineers to hire, so I’m skeptical when I hear people having trouble finding engineering jobs. My assumption (could be wrong) is a lot of people having trouble getting work haven’t adjuste…

What do you consider "unrealistically high", because I find that hard to apply to what I'm seeing. For example, I was recently contacted about a bay area principal engineer spot for 150-190k. To give some context, a fast food place near my house has signs in the window offering 160k+ for managers. Maybe fast food is paying exceptionally well these days, but I have my doubts.

Depends on the chain, management at McD and Burger King was always rather well paid. Also high turn-over high pressure.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#38

Post by bee_rider »

ulfw wrote: post #6

Soft landing except for us in tech who have been unemployed for months or years

We’ve been telling people for years that a STEM degree is a free ticket to the middle class and studying humanities is a total dead-end. It wouldn’t be that surprising for there to be too many programmers (in some sense; if you ask management there will never be enough as long as we have any negotiating leverage). This is a broader problem than the recent COVID-induced troubles.

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#39

Post by complianceowl »

photochemsyn wrote: post #22

IMF economic forecasts are of little value, as everyone should have learned from 2008. Let's see what the IMF forecast in 2007... https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sores1... forecast: "World growth to slow in 2008, but still expected to remain solid at 4¾ percent " reality (Fed report 2013): "From peak to trough, US gross domestic product fell by 4.3 percent, making this the deepest recession sinc…

> If climate scientists made forecasts that were this ridiculously off base in the wrong direction, the whole field would be laughed out of the room. How is it that the neoclassical econometric modelers at the IMF aren't? It's more like astrology than science.

I have to say, this made me chuckle. Climate scientists have gone from warning us that we're entering an ice age, to warning us that the globe is warming too much. They've consistently gotten their forecasts wrong concerning rising sea levels, and their forecasts concerning when the world would end. It's pure alarmism, extremism, and is the cause for the increasing eco-terrorism we are seeing.

Anyone that would like a little more info can watch this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2Yms_-vgbU

Re: Global Economy Approaches Soft Landing, but Risks Remain

#40

Post by screenobobeano »

I think we all need to thank China. They basically made recessions a thing of the past by just making them illegal. I doubt one ever happens again considering how easily the government responded to this one. They have a technocratic view of the economy and it’s the correct one.
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