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Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

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Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doing all the work and taking all the stress only to have the EU remove a chance of growth and exit is a problem that I never want to have. I went through some failed startups, and at least that was our own fault, but still I never want to do that again. I don't know what I'd do in this situation.

Why is "exit" always the goal? Why not go on growing?

Why is "growing" always the goal? Why not go on sustaining?

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#32

To be frank, I am more worried about the fact that they raised $385M from US investors at the seed stage. That speaks volume about how much it really is an EU company. Good luck to EU for retaking control of this ship.

385M USD is way too much for EU investors. They usually invest 10x-100x less. So the alternative without US investors would be to have no startup of this kind - great job, that will really help EU grow!

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#33
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of that is that you're taking a fixed number of companies. So if Europe has more, but smaller companies, the value of the top-40 would be lower than if they had fewer but larger companies. To me the first sounds healthier, everything else being equal.

Also, lots of large European companies are privately held. For example: IKEA, Schwartz group (Kaufland, Lidl), Bosch, Aldi...

All 70 year old companies is not helping your point.

US has new upstarts like Tesla and Nvidia, which at their prime, add like 1 IKEA per fortnight to their market cap.

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#34

To be frank, I am more worried about the fact that they raised $385M from US investors at the seed stage. That speaks volume about how much it really is an EU company. Good luck to EU for retaking control of this ship.

385M USD is way too much for EU investors. They usually invest 10x-100x less. So the alternative without US investors would be to have no startup of this kind - great job, that will really help EU grow!

What makes US investors so uniquely ambitious and generous? I'm starting to appreciate the US financial sector more and more.

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#35
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is "exit" always the goal? Why not go on growing?

Why is "growing" always the goal? Why not go on sustaining?

Because sustaining is a job, and it's a very hard job. The shareholders might not like that job or want to do a different one, or they just can't do it. Or the market is going down, but someone could use the IP/assets/team.

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

385M USD is way too much for EU investors. They usually invest 10x-100x less. So the alternative without US investors would be to have no startup of this kind - great job, that will really help EU grow!

What makes US investors so uniquely ambitious and generous? I'm starting to appreciate the US financial sector more and more.

The US investors just have so much more disposable cash they can risk. EU investors are looking for safety because losing 100M EUR means they lost literally everything. Their "risky volatile investments" part of the portfolio is 1-5M EUR in total, usually even less - and split that between at least 3-10 startups. And there's much less people with money overall, so you can't raise large enough VC funds.

The usual EU investor is simply going to buy some real estate instead of participating in VC funds - still great returns, very low risk. The more progressive ones will maybe try some real estate development projects. No need to think about this software thing. The angel investors I met with that had portfolios of 5-20M EUR wanted to invest 20-50K EUR into our startup, definitely not more.

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#37
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This move from MSFT is clearly perceived as aggressive from EU given how fragile EU sovereignty in AI is at this point. If EU wants to own its AI future, that’s not a great way of getting started.

I thought EU had money a lot more than €15M (Microsoft investment), actually a lot more than €1.8B (Mistral valuation). Why didn't EU make an offer? If EU wants to own its AI future, it has enough money to buy one. They decided not to.

The EU generally doesn't act on the market like that. This isn't China or Soviet Russia after all, we are still operating under a form of capitalism. The EU does offer grants, but those are generally meant for projects that wouldn't get money on the free market

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#38
post #25

Love it as a consumer because Mistral is probably not doing any more open weights if they get tangled with Microsoft. But man, as a business owner in EU, this would just make me not want to build an AI startup in EU

Time will be the ultimate judge but Mistral's Co-founder/CEO is still committing to be a leading provider of open weight models [1]: > Clarifying a couple of things since we’re reading creative interpretations of our latest announcements: - We’re still committed to leading open-weight models! We ask for a little patience, 1.5k H100s only got us that far. - We have a reselling agreement with Microsoft, that we’re very…

Statements like these are only a momentary snapshot. As soon as sufficiently money is at stake the board might change their tune overnight. The whole Altman-fired-from-OpenAI-then-reinstated drama should be warning enough.

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#39

Love it as a consumer because Mistral is probably not doing any more open weights if they get tangled with Microsoft. But man, as a business owner in EU, this would just make me not want to build an AI startup in EU

I mean, the FTC would absolutely look into this agreement if you did it in the US. Regulators "looking into" things is not a thing we should be upset about, that's why they exist.

Re: Europe probes Microsoft's €15M stake in AI upstart Mistral

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is "exit" always the goal? Why not go on growing?

Perhaps the founders want to remain there and grow, perhaps they want to focus on something else or retire. Perhaps the plan always was to sell after X years - I don't see anything wrong about that, still better to innovate&sell than just buy stock&sell IMHO. You can't attract investors if they can't sell in case the investment is successful. This is severely limiting and a terrible situation to be in - especially if…

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