31–40 of 71 posts
The performance of the stock market is more related to the money printing by the federal reserve than anything else. Modern economics seems to deny this, and thus will make articles like this.
M1 and the Fed's balance sheet are down since 2022, though. What "money printing" do you mean?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
M1 and the Fed's balance sheet are down since 2022, though. What "money printing" do you mean?
The $4T that businesses got handed in march 2020, aka 20% of all USA currency ever printed. Don't think they aren't still playing with it.
Interest rates are high now, so in theory investment in the stock market should be lower (and it was for a long time - see all the people investing in treasuries to get the great and safe returns)
The stock market in America just seems to have the same function as the property market in China, it's the primary thing everyone dumps their wealth in. If one looks at stock market capitalization versus real economic output the ratio keeps creeping up. So either there's some miracle returns in the future or it's just more and more divorced from the fundamentals.
Sooo, back to gold then?
if technology continues to improve productivity, then the market will continue to rise accordingly.
Google and Amazon maybe.
Experts predict 'good times will not last', and yet with a few exceptions like 2008 or 2022, prices tend to go up anyway. There is little evidence to suggest market timing works. Stock prices seemed overextended in 1996 and yet would go up for another 4 years.
This method seems to work pretty well: https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-gr... Unique in that it seems statistically verified. Here’s an up-to-date version of the projection: https://financial-charts.effingapp.com/
Experts predict 'good times will not last', and yet with a few exceptions like 2008 or 2022, prices tend to go up anyway. There is little evidence to suggest market timing works. Stock prices seemed overextended in 1996 and yet would go up for another 4 years.
>Experts predict 'good times will not last', and yet with a few exceptions like 2008 or 2022, prices tend to go up anyway. There is little evidence to suggest market timing works. It took a long time for me to accept this. Go back and look at the S&P historically for any date you'd like, and it always looks like we're teetering on the edge of an abyss. That's just the nature of economic growth.
* Predict that the good times won't last * When the economy is stable, keep posting that the bad times are around the corner * Repeat until an economic situation occurs (it does not matter how long, just keep repeating) * When an economic situation finally occurs, then say: "See. I predicted this."
Congrats, you are now an economist.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Is that why it is rising?
Its mostly hype, if AI shows real improvements, chatgpt would need to cost a lot more than $30/mo, considering it takes thousands per user per month.