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The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

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Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#31

Post by bediger4000 »

mianos wrote: post #23

I think this is all a bit of an irrelevant academic discussion. If Russia were to cross into Poland, it would essentially pit the world against Russia. If you're on board with the article and believe Putin is on a historically motivated crusade of sorts, and of sound mind, it's difficult to imagine he'd initiate an invasion he has no chance of winning. The fact that Poland can't muster an armed force as sizeable as R…

> it would essentially pit the world against Russia.

Maybe not if Trump is president.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#32

Post by khokhol »

I love this quote in the tweet linked to (through another tweet) in the article:

If Tucker was a real journalist he would have pushed back on this literal debunked Nazi propaganda, but Tucker isn't a journalist, and this wasn't an interview, but one big KGB brainwashing circus.

https://twitter.com/Dispropoganda/status/1755904802368700535

The actual Putin quote (that it displays in turn) is extremely telling, and finally explains what he really means when he says -- and he does seem to really believe what he says -- that he was "forced" to start the special operation against Ukraine, due to their reluctance to accept their natural place in the greater political order in Europe.

Much like, in Putin's view, Poland in 1939.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#33

Post by yks »

Affric wrote: post #29
yks wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ultimately neither will imperial expansion. They are not solving their problems, they just loot weaker neighbors and blame everyone but themselves. In reality Russia got maybe the best hand on this planet, so they definitely as a society could choose a path to prosperity instead of replaying medieval conquests, squandering whatever demographics they have left. Stolen Ukrainian kids are also a limited resource after a…

Right, but like the article says, in Poland westernisation was set as a return to Europe. “Europe” has for centuries defined itself against Russia. The last time Russia looked to the west, rather than inwards, they got shock therapy. Beyond that Russia’s hand is so good because of the very imperialism we are all decrying. You’re arguing that the Russian body politic should shrug off its distinct characteristics and s…

If Russians don't see that their ways ultimately lead to nowhere, it does not mean that others should accept Russian logic as rational. It is logical, but axioms the system is built upon are garbage.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#34

Post by yongjik »

alephnan wrote: post #22

> But we rarely think about ethnic imperialism — an empire trying to gobble up neighboring polities because of linguistic and cultural similarity, so that it can be the ruler of a specific cultural sphere. (In fact, the British conquest of Ireland, the Japanese conquest of Korea and China) Uh no. The Yamato people wanted these countries for land and resources. Japan was never interested in extending their culture, no…

Japan's colonial policy on Korea varied over time, but they were consistently hostile against educating people in the Korean language (I mean, they wanted low wage workers for the empire, so obviously they would want them to speak passable Japanese), and toward the end it became a full attempt at erasing Korean identity, with banning the Korean language in classrooms, forcing Shintoism on Koreans, and even forcing every Korean to abandon their own name and pick up a Japanese name [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%C5%8Dshi-kaimei

> Speaking of which, the other motivation was to prevent and buffer Japan from being controlled and humiliated by a white colonizers, as was the case with China.

I mean, yeah sure, that's what Japan claimed. In the same sense Hitler was defending the great German Lebensraum from evil intruders.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#35

Post by kelseyfrog »

ghiculescu wrote: post #12
kelseyfrog wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They were all wrong

That’s a powerful diplomatic argument, and I’m shocked Putin hasn’t reconsidered now you’ve made it.

It's not a diplomatic argument and I didn't know Putin was on HN ;P

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#36

Post by crossroadsguy »

mianos wrote: post #23

I think this is all a bit of an irrelevant academic discussion. If Russia were to cross into Poland, it would essentially pit the world against Russia. If you're on board with the article and believe Putin is on a historically motivated crusade of sorts, and of sound mind, it's difficult to imagine he'd initiate an invasion he has no chance of winning. The fact that Poland can't muster an armed force as sizeable as R…

Before that happened I could not even rationally imagine a major European nation will be invaded, and to a great extent overrun, in 2022 and the world would just say - “Tough luck. We feel bad. And yes of course we condemn it. Please let us know if we could be of any help. I am sure better things are waiting for you after this”.

This is the specialty of China and Russia. Keep pushing the buttons, keep testing the limits. One inch at a time, one border at a time and then, well, push a little more.

People proclaiming ‘an attack on Poland will go nuclear’ are probably blissfully choosing to ignore that nuclear war is mutual destruction without discrimination and with a sense of finality.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#37

Post by [deleted] »

doubloon wrote: post #5
pc_edwin wrote: post #2

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict. Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication. A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and soverei…

the reason their economy, birth rates, and military go into the toilet is because of their shitty rulers stole the money and spent it on whores and cocaine instead of education and infrastructure, not because they lost territory or sovereignty or any of this shit. if putin was rational and sophisticated his country would not be flushing itself down the toilet. russia used to be a mathematical, scientific, technologic…

[deleted]

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#38

Post by scrubs »

hollerith wrote: post #17
frozenport wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Putin != Russia It was, and has always been a war to maintain a kleptocratic autocrat.

Navalny has always maintained that Crimea should be part of Russia, as did Yeltsin, so there goes your theory that the cause of the war is the idea that Putin is an especially bad leader.

Claiming? That's talk. Taking it then allows indeed begs pushback that need not recognize any normality or consistency in any russian claims. Russia also decided Ukraine should be its own country then changed their mind. So ... so much for that

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#39

Post by vondur »

mianos wrote: post #23

I think this is all a bit of an irrelevant academic discussion. If Russia were to cross into Poland, it would essentially pit the world against Russia. If you're on board with the article and believe Putin is on a historically motivated crusade of sorts, and of sound mind, it's difficult to imagine he'd initiate an invasion he has no chance of winning. The fact that Poland can't muster an armed force as sizeable as R…

The Russian's don't have enough troops to invade and hold Ukraine, they'd need twice as much to invade and hold Poland. The US should have had at least 300k soldiers on the ground to prevent the chaos that enveloped Iraq after the dissolution of the Iraqi government.

Re: The Ukraine war is ultimately about Poland

#40

Post by tsimionescu »

ChatGTP wrote: post #9
pc_edwin wrote: post #2

Interesting read. The underlying point here is what many of us have been saying since the beginning of the conflict. Putin is not some crazy drugged up megalomaniac. Morality aside, his moves are clearly rational and shows a high level of sophistication. A small window of opportunity opened up just after covid. Russia got a chance to make its last stand against the rapid decline of its sphere of influence and soverei…

Many people don't seem to realize how existential this is for Russia What was existential for Russia? If they had of just remained peaceful and sold resources to the rest of the world, nothing would've happened to them, there was nothing existential about it. Maybe Putin is a paranoid lunatic and thinks people were out to get him, but there is no way there was some secret western plot to invade Russia or anything lik…

No one was about to invade Russia, not today. But NATO is by definition an alliance created against Russia, and it has a long history of trying to initiate regime changes in its enemies.

You have to remember that Russia is a federation, one with much deeper internal divides than the USA. The closer we are to Russia, the easier it is for us to fund, train, and arm Russia's separatist elements.

If NATO was officially present if Georgia, do you think it would ignore any pleas for help from chechen separatists trying to defend themselves from the butcher running them? Or would we actively work to try to make Chechenia an independent country, over the next 10-20 years?

And Chechenia is far from the only vulnerable place.

Note that I am not saying this would be a bad thing for the people of Chechenia. It is quite likely what a lot of them want. But if Russia were funding, arming, and training the IRA, or Texas's secessionist fringe, would the USA or UK be happy to allow this? No, empires are fundamentally built out of people who try to maintain their empire.

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