31–40 of 275 posts
If battery growth is exponential, but mining of ore isn't, that's a pretty big red flag imo. Once raw material production hits a wall, prices go back up, profits droop, advancement declines. After a while there'll probably be a new OPEC for batteries. Batteries are here to stay, but the growth rate isn't.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stationary systems for grid scale storage have amazing options - e.g. Form Energy - that needn't rely on power density benefits of Lithium chemistries. I wouldn't be surprised to see this sector dominate the GWh/yr chart in the next 6 years.
It's difficult to see any of the alternatives displacing batteries for short-term storage. Batteries aren't a good fit for long-term storage, which is where alternatives should be competitive. But that market is essentially 0 right now.
If battery growth is exponential, but mining of ore isn't, that's a pretty big red flag imo. Once raw material production hits a wall, prices go back up, profits droop, advancement declines. After a while there'll probably be a new OPEC for batteries. Batteries are here to stay, but the growth rate isn't.
[0] https://www.mprnews.org/story/2023/02/10/rusty-batteries-cou... [1]https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/29/electric-cars-powered-b... [2]https://samcotech.com/is-it-possible-to-extract-lithium-from...
This is a great set of charts and analysis, although I have two problems with it. 1. On the chart of energy density, I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. It's much higher, and even though extrapolation is dangerous, I'd like to see how long it could take to reach parity given some of the different forecasting models they mention. Specifically regarding their mention of air travel, I'd like…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
It is a little bit for a bunch of reasons, but how does improving battery storage change the generation mix?
Not an expert, but the biggest downside from renewables seems to be the swings in production. Solar is obviously not useful at night. Wind comes and goes. Batteries and other forms of energy storage to normalize distribution are more important for renewables than fossil fuels.
The cleanest candidate (Hydrogen-from-electrolysis) suffers from storage and distribution issues. These can be overcome, but at high cost.
The easiest (batteries) suffer from a combination of storage and distribution issues (heavy batteries have to be transported, you can't pipe them around, energy grids have power transmission costs/depend on batteries to work, an ouroborian problem) as well as toxicity issues.
Given that batteries cannot indefinitely become cheaper, and likely that demand will outpace supply, clean hydrogen, not batteries, seem the logical ultimate choice.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think. Electric vehicles are around four times as efficient as petrol. In a petrol car, only 20% of the energy is converted to motion. In electric cars, this is around 80% (with some variation dependent on regenerative braking). I wrote about this extensively in a previous article: https:…
Batteries aren’t just used in cars man. Really hard to beat propane or diesel for heat in the wilderness right now.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Batteries (High capacity chemical) are terrible for long term storage, namely they are toxic: https://www.mountsinai.org/health-library/poison/dry-cell-ba... https://medlineplus.gov/ency/article/002805.htm https://batteryuniversity.com/article/bu-703-health-concerns... And cannot always be easily recycled: https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-09/Lithium-I... In addition to general concerns about chemical a…
"Batteries are terrible for long term storage, namely they are toxic" Only some are toxic. But can you name the poison or danger with saltwater batteries? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sodium-ion_battery
This is a great set of charts and analysis, although I have two problems with it. 1. On the chart of energy density, I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. It's much higher, and even though extrapolation is dangerous, I'd like to see how long it could take to reach parity given some of the different forecasting models they mention. Specifically regarding their mention of air travel, I'd like…
> I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. Petrol's higher energy density doesn't matter as much as people think. Electric vehicles are around four times as efficient as petrol. In a petrol car, only 20% of the energy is converted to motion. In electric cars, this is around 80% (with some variation dependent on regenerative braking). I wrote about this extensively in a previous article: https:…
However, assuming that the renewable generation cost curve continues to improve exponentially then the most likely outcome for a carbon-neutral or carbon-negative future will be using electricity to manufacture high density combustible fuels out of atmospheric carbon, effectively using it as a high density "battery" for use cases that demand high energy density.
To the extent that your analysis is relevant to the concerns of the poster, all it means is that batterys are actually ~4x better than the raw energy density would indicate. As to the specifics, Wikipedia claims petrol is ~12,888 W*h/kg or ~24x the battery energy density in the article, so ~6x better with respect to car motion. Note that the current curve has only gone from ~100 W*h/kg to ~500 W*h/kg, so we would need to see density growth comparable to the last 30 years to happen again.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Stationary systems for grid scale storage have amazing options - e.g. Form Energy - that needn't rely on power density benefits of Lithium chemistries. I wouldn't be surprised to see this sector dominate the GWh/yr chart in the next 6 years.
It's difficult to see any of the alternatives displacing batteries for short-term storage. Batteries aren't a good fit for long-term storage, which is where alternatives should be competitive. But that market is essentially 0 right now.
This is a great set of charts and analysis, although I have two problems with it. 1. On the chart of energy density, I'd like to see the the energy density of petrol for comparison. It's much higher, and even though extrapolation is dangerous, I'd like to see how long it could take to reach parity given some of the different forecasting models they mention. Specifically regarding their mention of air travel, I'd like…