I now come to realize that if you don't want to drive it's better to have public transport. For the real fun part of owning a personal vehicle: sport car, road-trip... I doubt you would want a robot to take over.
Self-driving as a case study for AGI
31–40 of 199 posts
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#32"AGI: An autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable work." -- what an obscenely depressing reduction of a fascinating field of inquiry. who the hell snuck in and redefined the science of thinking machines to this sad and reductive get rich quick crap?
Preach,my friend! This is the most reductive and disgusting distillation of the human experience I've read here recently...and I've followed quite a few EA threads as their founders were imprisoned ;)
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#33As a driver you not only see cars. You apply theory of mind to each car, assigning a personality to each moving car, even if you can't see the driver.
Let's see you see a car full of bumps, marks and broken lights. You might think: this car has crashed before, I am going to avoid it. Or a car with racing parts and decals and tinted windows, you know that car likes to accelerate faster than usual and may be unsafe to be around. Or you see a SUV with baby on board stickers, you'll know that if you are going to crash you may try to crash that car last because it has babies inside, etc...
So humans don't see objects they see the whole situation, unconsciously even.
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#34I now come to realize that if you don't want to drive it's better to have public transport. For the real fun part of owning a personal vehicle: sport car, road-trip... I doubt you would want a robot to take over.
You can already experience self driving cars by taking an Uber or a taxi, or being chauffeured if you are richer. None of that is new, the self driving aspect just promises to make those experiences perhaps more accessible (or at the very least, not less accessible than they are now). For example, I took a taxi to and from work every day when I lived in Beijing, which came to about 100 kuai/day for a 20-30 minute drive each way, which is affordable to a lot of people (although only possible due to cheap labor). I wouldn’t mind being driven to work here in the states, although it isn’t really economically feasible (and perhaps should be replaced with direct public transit if that was time competitive, which it isn’t, but could be).
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#35I don't things like "full self driving" are meaningful (and probably also AGI), because in reality it isn't a binary thing, rather it's a spectrum of power based on error rate and problem space coverage. Waymo self driving works within a defined subset of the problem space, we can stick a goalpost in the sand in term of the known problem space and error rates and say that represents "full self driving" but the realit…
It's not like people can generalize either. There are lots of famous drivers who ended up dead while driving.
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#36IMO a chatbot is sufficient to demonstrate AGI. I think the chinese room problem is as good as anything. Of course, there isn't much money in teaching a bot that only knows english chinese. EDIT, Wikipedia page for context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room
Try, "ChatGPT, what do you think about this song"... LLMs do not constitute "AI" let alone the more rigorous AGI. They are a GREAT statistical parlor trick for people that don't understand statistics though.
> LLMs do not constitute "AI" let alone the more rigorous AGI.
I have a textbook, "Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach," which covers Language Models in Chapter 23 (page 824) and the Transformer architecture in the following chapter. In any field technical terms emerge to avoid ambiguity. Laymen often adopt less accurate definitions from popular culture. LLMs do qualify as AI, even if not according to the oversimplified "AI" some laymen refer to.
It has been argued for the last several decades that every advance which was an AI advance according to AI researchers and AI textbooks was not in fact AI. This is because the laymen have a stupid definition of what constitutes an AI. It isn't because the field hasn't made any progress, but instead because people outside the field lack the sophistication to make coherent statements when discussing the field because their definitions are incoherent nonsense derived from fiction.
> They are a GREAT statistical parlor trick for people that don't understand statistics though.
The people who believe that LLMs constitute AI in a formal sense of the word aren't statistically illiterate. AIMA covers statistics extensively: chapter 12 is on Quantifying Uncertainty, 13 on Probabilistic Reasoning, 14 on Probabilistic Reasoning Over Time, 15 on Probabilistic Programming, and 20 on Learning Probabilistic Models.
Notably, in some of these chapters probability is proven to be optimal and sensible; far from being a parlor trick it can be shown with mathematical rigor that failing to abide by its strictures is not optimal. The ontological commitments of probability theory are quite reasonable; they're the same commitments logic makes. That we model accordingly isn't a parlor trick, but a reasonable and rational choice with ledger arguments proving that failing to do so would lead to regret.
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#37Something tells me Karpathy rarely uses the “FSD” in his Tesla. He barely mentioned Tesla FSD in the blog despite being a key leader in the project. Perhaps he’d like to forget about it all together.. Maybe Elon really screwed the project by forcing the use of video cams and Karpathy is still salty about it.
Actually if you read the blog he addresses Waymo and Tesla's strategy. He says the barriers to Tesla scaling are software and Waymo needs to scale hardware. He then implies that software will win the scaling race
LIDAR is rapidly falling in price, which will enable lots of interesting applications even if Tesla’s bet pays off.
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#38Just the quiet disappearance of jobs, as has happened in so many other areas.
This is often said, but isn’t labor force participation at the lowest level ever? And aren’t a good fraction of jobs so called bull shit jobs that could be eliminated with often a positive net result, particularly gov etc.
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#39"AGI: An autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable work." -- what an obscenely depressing reduction of a fascinating field of inquiry. who the hell snuck in and redefined the science of thinking machines to this sad and reductive get rich quick crap?
Its not really about "get rich", its about giving people the ability to bypass the middleman for pretty much anything that they rely on.
Re: Self-driving as a case study for AGI
#40IMO a chatbot is sufficient to demonstrate AGI. I think the chinese room problem is as good as anything. Of course, there isn't much money in teaching a bot that only knows english chinese. EDIT, Wikipedia page for context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room
Try, "ChatGPT, what do you think about this song"... LLMs do not constitute "AI" let alone the more rigorous AGI. They are a GREAT statistical parlor trick for people that don't understand statistics though.
LLMs are not capable of passing the chinese room test, fairly trivially.