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DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

gizmodo.com

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Re: DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

#31

Post by HeatrayEnjoyer »

bradknowles wrote: post #28
alexwhb wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in the short term that definitely makes sense, but long term… I think we’ll see more and more jobs be automated away. Look at what Amazon is doing with their new wheelhouse robots. In 2 to 5 years that’s going to become mainstream. Maybe sooner.

Wheelhouse robots? Could you be more specific? Amazon has been using robots in their fulfillment centers for years now, and there are plenty of public videos out there on those processes. But I don't see how this would replace the use of humans in other critical aspects of fulfillment center operations.

Their new robots are dexterous and able to automate much more complex tasks than the existing bots.

Re: DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

#35

Post by salawat »

xnx wrote: post #26
alexwhb wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So true. And unemployment doesn’t take into account disenfranchised workers, which is significantly higher than it has been in recent history.

What's the measure of disenfranchised workers? I couldn't find any good source.

That would be the basis measurement of the population of working age people not requesting and or not eligible for unemployment benefits, champ.

Re: DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

#36

Post by imartin2k »

drooby wrote: post #34

Any technology is fundamentally a labor replacing tool. Isn't that the whole point of "technology"? Society will adapt. As it always has. Most Americans no longer work on farms or factories either.

Also, demographics and other changes (in many developed countries at least) mean we really need more labor replacing tools, as there’s simply a lack of human labor supply in many areas.

Of course, if the labor replacing process is too rapid, then that could become a problem.

Re: DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

#37

Post by alexwhb »

bradknowles wrote: post #30
alexwhb wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So true. And when autonomous driving finally get to the safety levels where society accepts it… that will be a shocking number of jobs taken. Also Amazon is going to start selling their self checkout technology to stores… so most cashiers will definitely be out of work in the next decade if not sooner.

What we know of the current Amazon technology is bad enough that Amazon keeps closing stores. It's just not profitable enough to keep them open. Now, maybe what they're thinking is that these stores were just a training exercise and known to be unprofitable from Day One, and now those training exercises are over so they can start shutting them down. Dunno -- I have no inside information on this. But I wouldn't be loo…

Fair point, but then again… self checkout sucks!! And it’s everywhere. point being maybe it doesn’t have to be very good if it saves companies money. I hope that I’m wrong, but I honestly wouldn’t be surprised

Re: DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

#38

Post by alexwhb »

bradknowles wrote: post #28
alexwhb wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think in the short term that definitely makes sense, but long term… I think we’ll see more and more jobs be automated away. Look at what Amazon is doing with their new wheelhouse robots. In 2 to 5 years that’s going to become mainstream. Maybe sooner.

Wheelhouse robots? Could you be more specific? Amazon has been using robots in their fulfillment centers for years now, and there are plenty of public videos out there on those processes. But I don't see how this would replace the use of humans in other critical aspects of fulfillment center operations.

Sorry autocorrect. i meant warehouse. Have you seen these? https://youtu.be/ZWonAz7Kczs?si=a0yF-YRRmXYsYj-Q

They are not the robots I assume you’re referring to that move the crates of orders around that roll on the ground.

Re: DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

#39

Post by alexwhb »

xnx wrote: post #26
alexwhb wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So true. And unemployment doesn’t take into account disenfranchised workers, which is significantly higher than it has been in recent history.

What's the measure of disenfranchised workers? I couldn't find any good source.

I believe the technical economic term is “discouraged workers”. Someone correct me if I’m wrong.

This is a useful resource on aspects not included in the unemployment metric: https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0609/what-the-un....

Re: DeepMind Co-Founder: AI Is Fundamentally a "Labor Replacing Tool"

#40

Post by impossiblefork »

aatd86 wrote: post #6
huitzitziltzin wrote: post #3

More than a year into ChatGPT and… unemployment is at historic lows. I don’t remotely see the present generation of LLMs as being “labor replacing tools.” I’m aware of empirical work which shows them to be useful complements to human judgment, not substitutes for the same. I’m also aware of one study showing (iirc) less work for illustrators on an online job board. That latter case is the only case im aware of where…

I'm always wondering when people speak about (un)employment. Like ok non-farm payroll numbers may look good but what kind of jobs, for what kind of pay? Logically, employment may increase while people's standard of living may get worse at the same time? Is there somewhere more specific data? Other than that, I think I remember an article claiming that the introduction of thr personnal computers led companies to be ab…

Unemployment mostly has to do with matching and coordination problems.

AI or increases in labour supply doesn't typically result in reduced unemployment, rather it acts to push down wages. An increase in labour supply could even lead to people bidding over each other with time, so that the result is that people work more rather than less.

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