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Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

kevinchen.co

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Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#31

Post by ta8903 »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #13

"Now let’s compare these distances with the capabilities of various sensors:" Many cars monitor rotational speed of the tires in order to determine whether a wheel is slipping. A Model 3 can detect whether a tire is new or old based on tread depth, something I learned the hard way. If trucks were outfitted with rotational encoders on all tires, 'slipperiness' could be monitored periodically by, for example, tapping b…

>trucks run in fleets and on routes

Makes me wonder if it would be more efficient to run trucks as "convoys", maybe consisting of competing companies along predetermined routes. And you could have an ultralight canary car go an appropriate distance along the front to ensure that in the worse case, it is the one that crashes.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#32

Post by kevinchen »

mxwsn wrote: post #22

Whoa hold on, table 1 of stopping distances is calculated for 2.5 second reaction time which is 10x longer than conventional human reaction time. Then the stopping distances are compared to radar/lidar/camera to argue that AVs can struggle to stop within detection range. It's possible a computer might need 2.5s to make a decision to stop. But the current analysis isn't based on that. This analysis seems really suspec…

Author here. the shorter reaction times you mentioned are collected under ideal conditions, like the person knows they are being tested and only needs to push a button or whatever. In driving, the reaction time is end to end, including perception, decision-making, and actuation (moving your foot, pressing pedal all the way, shifting, etc.)

Also recommend checking out the citation. It is an accepted value used in American highway design.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#33

Post by crazygringo »

Edman274 wrote: post #26

I often see logic along the lines of "if autonomous vehicles are safer than people, then let's deploy them" and that logic straight-up does not fly in the real world. In the real world, among the techno-pessimists, that is an outrageously low bar. Most accidents and deaths that happen because of human drivers occur because the driver was doing something illegal, which means the bar that we have for even humans is hig…

> but I really don't feel like society will accept anything other than trucks / vehicles that are able to operate under all conditions

Trucks are different because they're just for transportation of goods. As challenging weather arrives they can just wait at the nearest rest stop, pull over on the shoulder, etc.

Your shipping will be delayed, but outside of that I don't think society will care. Totally acceptable as long as weather delays only last as long as a storm does.

That's different from rideshare where people do expect to be able to call a Waymo even if it's snowing lightly.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#34

Post by twoWhlsGud »

silvestrov wrote: post #10

If he thinks driving cars in cities is the easiest problem, he does not have experience driving a car in a European city with lots of cyclists and pedestrians. Driving a car in inner Copenhagen is a stressful situation due to the insane number of cyclist you have to watch out for, see https://youtu.be/FaySp9i2zMA?t=113

This observation holds a lesson for cycling advocates in other countries, I think. My happy experiences of cycling in Copenhagen are only partially due to the reasonably good infrastructure. The care that drivers take (thus producing the stress S above notes) is also a big part. Good infrastructure together with careless drivers doesn't deliver a good cycling experience.

Also one of the things autonomy tech could deliver is better driving aids to ease some of that stress (it's not a slam dunk because it is easy to create driving aids that present a false sense of security).

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#35

Post by thriftwy »

11thEarlOfMar wrote: post #13

"Now let’s compare these distances with the capabilities of various sensors:" Many cars monitor rotational speed of the tires in order to determine whether a wheel is slipping. A Model 3 can detect whether a tire is new or old based on tread depth, something I learned the hard way. If trucks were outfitted with rotational encoders on all tires, 'slipperiness' could be monitored periodically by, for example, tapping b…

Trucks operating in fleet on the same route are called "the railway". That's what that your driverless fixed route trucks will have to compete with.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#36

Post by jdewerd »

Edman274 wrote: post #26

I often see logic along the lines of "if autonomous vehicles are safer than people, then let's deploy them" and that logic straight-up does not fly in the real world. In the real world, among the techno-pessimists, that is an outrageously low bar. Most accidents and deaths that happen because of human drivers occur because the driver was doing something illegal, which means the bar that we have for even humans is hig…

So it's OK to have more deaths so long as we can punish someone with no expectation that doing so will fix the problem? I suspect you are right, but I don't think it reflects well on us.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#37

Post by gumballindie »

Autonomous driving vehicles advocates are as ignorant of reality as are those thinking ai will replace competent programmers.

The trick in driving is not straight lines and clear weather. It’s rainy, snowy, foggy, conditions that make it challenging. Edges cases are the real difficulty, as with everything.

I suppose when your knowledge of the world is limited by a few multiplayer notepad interactions everything is simple.

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#38

Post by twoWhlsGud »

hutzlibu wrote: post #28
silvestrov wrote: post #10

If he thinks driving cars in cities is the easiest problem, he does not have experience driving a car in a European city with lots of cyclists and pedestrians. Driving a car in inner Copenhagen is a stressful situation due to the insane number of cyclist you have to watch out for, see https://youtu.be/FaySp9i2zMA?t=113

Now imagine all those cyclists and pedestrians would also drive a car, would also be on the road at the same time. You think driving would be less stressfull then?

Yes, I tell my driving friends who complain about some nut they saw cycling - "Well, would you be happier if he did that in a Chevy Suburban?" :)

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#39

Post by kevinchen »

silvestrov wrote: post #10

If he thinks driving cars in cities is the easiest problem, he does not have experience driving a car in a European city with lots of cyclists and pedestrians. Driving a car in inner Copenhagen is a stressful situation due to the insane number of cyclist you have to watch out for, see https://youtu.be/FaySp9i2zMA?t=113

Thst video looks fairly sparse and well structured by SF standards? eg interactions starting at 9:00 https://youtu.be/TOV0ndPr0Dk

Many examples of high pedestrian density in https://youtu.be/P6sw4EKegp4

Re: Autonomous trucking is harder than autonomous rideshare

#40

Post by kevinchen »

Edman274 wrote: post #26

I often see logic along the lines of "if autonomous vehicles are safer than people, then let's deploy them" and that logic straight-up does not fly in the real world. In the real world, among the techno-pessimists, that is an outrageously low bar. Most accidents and deaths that happen because of human drivers occur because the driver was doing something illegal, which means the bar that we have for even humans is hig…

I agree achieving human safety equivalent is the minimum bar. Ex: We can all agree that if your system is below human safety, it is definitely unacceptable.

That’s not the argument being presented though. For example Waymo claims to exceed human performance by a large margin: https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperfor...

(Again, one may disagree about the methodology or the conclusions of the study. Just want to point out it’s not the argument being presented.)

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