Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
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Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#32Theres just so little value in the stuff being produced. Its absurd. Where are the people who are designing actual tangible items? Why is so much of this stuff only fluff and entertainment?
# Factor 1
The first is the fact that the people who have disposable income already own more tangible items than the ultra wealthy of our cave dwelling ancestors did. In terms of value.
# Factor 2
Since people already own most of the tangible things needed to live a comfortable life, consumer focused companies need methods to find the specific consumers that are currently interested in buying tangible things, or who can be convinced to be interested. They then need to profile these people and then present them with messages engineered to elicit feelings of hope for fulfillment (I say hope, because often the fulfillment does not come). This is describing classic consumer research and classic advertising. This is currently a costly process*.
U.S. ad spending grew 6.5% in 2010 to $131.1 billion, according to new data from Kantar Media.
# The Result
A huge market has been created. A very real market. As an aggregate our private information and attention (market research & advertising) is quite valuable. Not to say this market is so vast it eclipses all others. Facebook is valued at over 100 Billion according to some. Selling tangible goods like oil or Apple products seem to still be larger than this market. So a few individual markets are larger than social networking market?
We live in a world where the ability to line people up, study then and then use psychological tactics to hook into their desires and wants, on an aggregate, is worth more than the products on an individual case are worth.
# An Analogy
If this is hard to wrap your brain around, think of this analogy. Imagine a world where the automobile, plane, boat etc were never invented and no roads exist. However a few Rail Road companies exist. The FB RR, the Twitter RR, Instagraam RR and the Pinterest RR company. The FB RR just bought Instagram RR. Companies like Coca-Cola sell tangible products (sugar water) And before the 4 mentioned Rail Roads existed Coca-Cola did quite well selling its sugar water. It has become a billion dollar business. By way of Pony Express (Television, magazines, research groups) many people have chosen to buy Coca-Cola. However, from its point of view it could sell more and hiring men to carry large sums of sugar water long distances on horseback is expensive. And worse now that Rail Roads are popping up in small towns competing companies such as Pepsi, Jones soda, etc are delivering their sugar water for cheaper.
The truth is if no Rail Road existed and no Pony express, you or I would be fine. We would drink water, we would tend our farm and trade carrots for apples. Which we would use to make apple juice. Evolutionary speaking we don't need Coca-Cola. And the heads of Coca-Cola know this. If they don't start paying the FB, Twitter, Instagram and Pinterest RR to ship their sugar water to local towns people will stop buying Coca-Cola. A billion dollar business is at the mercy of these 4 Rail Roads. But it’s not just Coca-Cola. There are millions of businesses in the same boat.
So yes, social networks provide intangible goods to you and I, however, to consumer focused companies they are essential for Sugar Water Co to be a billion dollar company in today's economy.
The result is a gold rush, and though you may feel morally against this gold rush, you can’t deny it’s not real money, real value being created. A better mouse trap has been built. It creates wealth. In this case this mouse trap tracks you, analyzes you and convinces you to spend your money on Sugar Water. This is a tanigable, valuable and desirable good to many rich people.
Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#33Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#34'Premonitions of a bubble on the verge of popping do not ruffle those who are bullish on real estate. In Miami, Ron Shuffield, president of Esslinger-Wooten-Maxwell Realtors, predicted that a limited supply of land coupled with demand from baby boomers and foreigners would prolong the boom indefinitely. "South Florida," he said, "is working off of a totally new economic model than any of us have ever experienced in the past."'
It seems like a lot of the same kinds of thinking in Justin's article, "we might be in a bubble, but for you it doesn’t matter. The reality of the world is that software, specifically Internet enabled software, is becoming a part of every business. Marc Andreessen said “software is eating the world,” and by that he meant that as time goes on, every industry is becoming a software industry...You want to be in the tech game, because in time it will be the only game in town."
Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Because the parts of the economy providing food and housing take up a small fraction of the total work available to be done. The rest of the work (ie surplus) can go to one of three things: 1. "Storing food for the winter". R&D to prepare us for challenges we'll face in the future. Ex: alternative energy research. This sort of thing is extremely difficult to fund in a capitalist society. We need more of it. 2. Waste.…
Accounting and practicing law is a waste?
I'm not saying they're not necessary. But if the economy were a mechanical system, law and accounting would be the friction between the belts and the wheels that produces waste heat.
Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#36On the other hand, there might come a time where software becomes so important and pervasive that it won't make sense anymore to call yourself a software engineer or a software company. I'm guessing there was once a time where the next big thing was to become a mathematician. However, mathematics has grown so central to so many fields that very few people nowadays call themselves mathematicians or dream of building m…
Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#37Justin is fundamentally missing what people are saying the bubble is. From my perspective, no one is arguing that high tech and programming won't be more and more important in the future. "Anyone who tells you that you shouldn’t be in tech, or that the current market situation will create an oversupply of people in tech, is doing you a massive disservice." Who is saying this? I don't think anyone is trying to dissuad…
Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#38proof positive we're in a bubble: http://wag.com/ . http://pets.com/ is back!
Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#39Justin is fundamentally missing what people are saying the bubble is. From my perspective, no one is arguing that high tech and programming won't be more and more important in the future. "Anyone who tells you that you shouldn’t be in tech, or that the current market situation will create an oversupply of people in tech, is doing you a massive disservice." Who is saying this? I don't think anyone is trying to dissuad…
I'm not a big fan of protecting people from themselves. Who are you to tell me I shouldn't be allowed to invest in a startup because I'm too dumb to make that decision for myself? Whether or not you are right about the bubble is besides the point.
Re: Maybe we're in a bubble but it doesn't matter
#40When I read things like this, I have to wonder if the people saying it are really naive or sheltered enough to believe it: "You want to be in the tech game, because in time it will be the only game in town." Well, no...because tech won't be big enough to employ more than a relatively small percentage of the population. And it won't matter that companies want to pay tech workers to help automate people out of jobs. Be…
It's an especially odd statement coming from the founder of a company that employs people to run errands for other people.