Entrepreneurship's Dirty Little Secret

I've added clarifications, let me know if there is anything left unclear. (I didn't want to explain every comment, thought it would be condescending or unnecessary, but I've explained anything I thought was unclear in an edit, and can add more if anything is still unclear.

>Similarly, we need to stop encouraging entrepreneurship without acknowledging the extremely long odds of success, the numerous downsides and the fact that many of today’s entrepreneurs are tomorrow’s social welfare recipients.

Yeah for a few months. The kind of people who are going to start their own company are not the kind of welfare recipients we should care about (inner city kids and white trash) -- they are those for whom welfare was created, as temporary safety net.

Who said I wrote them off? I am writing off the author of this article. This article is about 5% substance, 30% quotes from other people, and the rest is a mixture of vague personal opinions and forewarnings about the realities of the odds against entrepreneurs from a guy who, from what I can tell, has never had the guts to start a business.

I personally don't find much value in Eric Ries advice and think he capitalized on the brand value of his education and a couple of minor business successes to write a highly successful and oft-cited book. I feel the same way about Seth Godin, Guy Kawasaki, and Tim Ferris. More power to them for building their personal brands and book sales through the insecurity of people just starting out, but I wouldn't spend too much time studying their prescriptions for success, because in reality, there is no such thing.

My point in the original post was that any author spending so much time citing startup gurus can't himself know too much about what he is talking about. It is like writing about new technology by reblogging Engadget articles.

The sense I have coming from the UK is that the US tolerates start up failures far better than we do. If you try in the US and fail, the general vibe seems to be one of, "Ok, it went wrong, brush your self down and try again, and make sure you learned the lessons". In the UK, its more like, "you evil failure, you conned every one and we will bankrupt you and stop you trying again".

So, from a UK POV, the caution this article seems to urge, seems more applicable to the UK than the US.

I highlight this because I believe failure is as useful as success, I think there is possibly more to learn from a failure. I almost feel like a few failures are essential so that lessons can be learned, and stronger new start ups emerge with stronger founders. I believe the US is way better at this than the UK, and possibly Europe.

Or perhaps I have too a rosier view of the US in this respect? Dunno.

Here's one objective way to measure fit: If you let a half assed article from someone who (I suspect) has never started a business dissuade you from being an entrepreneur, then you don't fit.

The skill to have (and it is easy for me, but it may not be for everyone) is to know what's right and what you're going to do, while at the same time separating the signal from the noise out there and integrating what the signal tells you about the market into your business.

There are a surprising number of people who think their mission in life is to "help" entrepreneurs... who think that their opinions are helpful independant of whether they are or not.

IF you remain unsure, there's nothing wrong with working for others (or working for someone else's startup) and doing your own thing on the side. Side projects can be very educational-- I learned as much from my side projects as I did from my day jobs working for startups.

You don't have to start off on your own right now, if you feel you're not ready.

Also, I don't think the chances of success for starting business are very small. I think they are probably better than 50/50. (Of the dozens of businesses I've started in my life, nearly all have been profitable.) People think a "startup" is this magical thing that is a "Scalable business", but most of the businesses I've started in my side projects have been scalable as well.

Moving to the bay area and starting a web site that has no real business model other than "sell advertising once we get to 50 million users" and high real costs making it dependent on external financing, on the other hand, is an approach that has very, very small chances.

I think the real problem is that this is the only model people seem to think exists.