It's hard to find a calculator/data source that takes dividends into account, but it looks like if you bought an S&P500 index fund in May 2022 you'd be up around 18% depending on which day you purchased. So not very dramatic IMO
Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
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Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#32Separately, retail investors also outperform the S&P on average: https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/who-you-calling-dumb-mone...
> The average individual-investor stock portfolio has risen about 150% since the beginning of 2014, according to investment research firm Vanda Research, which began tracking the data nine years ago. That beats the S&P 500’s roughly 140% during the same period.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#33I’ve looked into this- basically when the congress member purchases or sell stock they have a month or so before they have to report it. It makes live trading impossible. But it is interesting to go back and see who knew what , when.
Do they have to report the actual day of the trade? It seems possible to backtest their trades too.
From what I remember, no, just that it was executed, and within 45 days of the transaction being completed, or 30 days if notified, and only for trades > $1,000.
So you only know that within the last 1.5 months a trade was executed for any particular representative
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#34Honestly, I'd be shocked if HFT firms hadn't integrated all this knowledge into their algorithms ages ago, removing any potential alpha. More likely I think is just that the market has gone up significantly since May 2022, and good stocks disproportionately do very well in an upmarket. For instance, QQQ, is up 31% in the same time period.
If this were true you would expect an announcement effect for disclosures. Testable.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#35It's hard to find a calculator/data source that takes dividends into account, but it looks like if you bought an S&P500 index fund in May 2022 you'd be up around 18% depending on which day you purchased. So not very dramatic IMO
Looks like VFINX returned 8.8% since 2022-05-01. How did you get to 18%?
https://totalrealreturns.com/n/VFINX,VBMFX,USDOLLAR?start=20...
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#36@dang, can you change the display for (threads.net) to be like twitter, where it shows the username to the right of the post title? For example, threads.net/@quiverquantitative
Typing "@dang" does not actually do anything. Write to the mods using the Contact email at the bottom of the page.
Completely unrelated by I just wondered if GP knew that “@“ doesn’t have any functionality but used as a sort of etiquette symbol.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#37not very useful. no comparison of S&P 500 and it stops in early 2023 and starts in 2020. a 3 year backtest that ends in early 2023 and ignores the bull market that began in 2023 is enough to prove anything.
The post says “The market has been flat during the same time period.”, which is not true.
The market was roughly flat between when the strategy went live (in may of 2022) and when the post was made.
The backtest goes back further though, which is what is shown in the graph. Could be improved by having a line on the graph showing when it went live.
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#38It's hard to find a calculator/data source that takes dividends into account, but it looks like if you bought an S&P500 index fund in May 2022 you'd be up around 18% depending on which day you purchased. So not very dramatic IMO
May 2022 was peak "we're headed for a recession" dooming
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#39That is almost 3X to 4X times higher returns than most bonded investment managers.
Kind of sad really, but it is easy money for that 3% high-risk section of a portfolio =)
Re: Trading bot that buys stocks bought by politicians is up 20% since May 2022
#40Radical proposal: Rather than trying to police leakage of insider information, level the playing field for both politicians and fed employees by creating a dozen or so national mutual funds of at least 1,000 equity positions each that intend to model the US economy as a whole. Anyone can invest in them, but all US Federal employees and immediate family members are required to liquidate all other positions and hold on…
There are significantly better options here, e.g. by moving assets into a blind trust while in office.