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AI is about to change how you use computers

gatesnotes.com

31–40 of 91 posts

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#31
> And depending on how much information you choose to share with it, the software will be able to respond personally because it will have a rich understanding of your life.

That understanding will belong to some company whose interests and goals are not yours.

This will not bother most people. Most people are willing to use GMail, even though it snoops on their private emails and uses that info for advertising purposes.

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#32

The writing is on the wall. It's not right now, but it will be in my lifetime. What are some AI-proof(ish) industries we can jump into after software engineering is drastically reduced?

Is it though? It is not having a significant impact in most fields, despite all the hype. Companies will use it to continue to make customer services worse so they can spend less money on it. People writing marketing copy that no one wants to read anyways will lose their jobs. Semi-competent software engineers will use it instead of searching Stack Overflow five times per day and still write questionable code.

To be clear, I'm referring to LLM. Obviously ML is used for a lot of analytics, but I also think that most of the hype around ML has died down as companies realized that not every problem has a ML solution. In a few years the same will happen with LLM.

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#33

Is this motivated reasoning from the perspective of an OS vendor? It seems like intermediating the user's intent using AI has the same hazards as intermediating the internet through a single search provider... i.e. it'll happen, but will tend towards benefiting larger interests, leaving the experience a little less rich than before.

Of course it's motivated. Make something seem useful so you can sell it to people and/or give it to them for "free" and monetize their data.

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#34
An agent is an amazing idea, and it would add enormous convenience - if implemented well.

But we're a long, long, long, long, long way away from agents. What we have now aren't even precursors to agents, more like very distant cousins to an ancestor.

In order to make what he's talking about, you'd need true general artificial intelligence operating at a human's level or above.

And if we have that, the entire world is going to change regardless - personal assistants will be insignificant in comparison.

It's difficult to predict when a breakthrough like that would happen, but I doubt it'll be within the next 200 years.

What we have now isn't even a stepping stone in the right direction, it's just smoke and mirrors that looks like it is if you only look at it on a surface level.

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#36

> The real shift will come when agents can help patients do basic triage, get advice about how to deal with health problems Yeah could you f**ng not? I pay taxes and insurance to get proper medical guidance, not answers from a bot. Public healthcare in the uk is nearly dead anyway and their patch fixes are to use “virtual” nonsense, while private healthcare is riddled by “ai” that does nothing but annoy customers. Ba…

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10425828/

Use of GPT-4 to Analyze Medical Records of Patients With Extensive Investigations and Delayed Diagnosis

"Six patients 65 years or older (2 women and 4 men) were included in the analysis. The accuracy of the primary diagnoses made by GPT-4, clinicians, and Isabel DDx Companion was 4 of 6 patients (66.7%), 2 of 6 patients (33.3%), and 0 patients, respectively. If including differential diagnoses, the accuracy was 5 of 6 (83.3%) for GPT-4, 3 of 6 (50.0%) for clinicians, and 2 of 6 (33.3%) for Isabel DDx Companion"

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#37

> And even the best sites have an incomplete understanding of your work, personal life, interests, and relationships and a limited ability to use this information to do things for you. Good, that's how I would like it to be!

This is how I would like it to be only because I can't trust it to treat my information well. If it was a trustworthy system, this would be an incredible capability.

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#38
post #5

Every Bill Gates article reads as a ChatGPT generated fluff piece. Coincidence...?

We're talking about the guy who missed the boat on the Internet and had to rewrite part of his book and change the direction of the company when it was obvious that MS couldn't just ignore it.

Re: AI is about to change how you use computers

#39

The writing is on the wall. It's not right now, but it will be in my lifetime. What are some AI-proof(ish) industries we can jump into after software engineering is drastically reduced?

AI will never write software for the same reason professional chefs will never be replaced by robots. Sure, certain parts of our jobs (the fast food equivalent work) will be assisted, and then replaced, with AI help. Ops is already benefitting from AI assistance with things like log correlation and managing incidents, and all of that is great! But the fact is that AI will still require the input of humans to solve problems, and specifying a problem completely enough that a machine can write the code for it is equivalent in effort to just writing the code yourself.

I see the introduction of AI to the SWE workforce as roughly equivalent to the introduction of digital kitchen scales, thermometers, etc. to professional kitchens. It's going to help us up our game, which is awesome! It's going to make a lot of the boring, mechanical stuff simpler so we can focus on the creative aspects of our jobs. But a burger flipping robot isn't replacing a michelin star chef anytime soon, and AI isn't replacing you anytime soon.

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