Help me Hack the Lottery or, the worst $90 investment ever

Post by joezydeco » Sat, Mar 24, 2012, 1:39 AM UTC

EvanKelly wrote: post #25

shocks wrote: post #16

http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2011/07/broken-lotteries/ Here's a great article on lotteries, particularly Cash Winfall. CWF was a particularly broken lottery. In a certain season it was possible to purchase enough tickets (say, $100,000 worth) to (almost) guarantee a profit. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_Lottery#Cash_Win...

If I remember that article correctly, I think it's arguable as to whether the lottery was "broken". The lottery commission was aware about the increased odds, but they created a higher odds game due to user feedback. Massachusetts still made money off of the game (though a smaller margin than other games). I would argue that a lottery's goal is to make money while providing entertainment, and not necessarily create a…

Post by mitchellhislop » Sat, Mar 24, 2012, 1:56 AM UTC

Tichy wrote: post #11

mikecane wrote: post #5

You don't want theoretical help. You want real-world help. Hang out at the counter where tickets are sold. You're bound to encounter someone who asks what serial numbers the tickets end in. Take that guy out for a drink and find out what he knows, how he knows it, and if it ever worked for him. I've seen several people ask about the ticket serial numbers and not buy, but scratch-offs aren't my thing, so I didn't both…

Could be those people are just superstitious and only want tickets including their lucky number, or something like that.

Post by EvanKelly » Sat, Mar 24, 2012, 1:57 AM UTC

joezydeco wrote: post #31

EvanKelly wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I remember that article correctly, I think it's arguable as to whether the lottery was "broken". The lottery commission was aware about the increased odds, but they created a higher odds game due to user feedback. Massachusetts still made money off of the game (though a smaller margin than other games). I would argue that a lottery's goal is to make money while providing entertainment, and not necessarily create a…

Changing the odds isn't the same as changing the expected value. Cash Windfall modified the EV of the lower prizes by increasing the value.

Post by stfu » Sat, Mar 24, 2012, 2:03 AM UTC

Tichy wrote: post #10

I don't think it is a given that every lottery can be hacked. I would also like to recommend this PG essay: http://paulgraham.com/wealth.html

Post by noal » Sat, Mar 24, 2012, 2:29 AM UTC

mckilljoy wrote: post #32

nullflux wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That same site has an interesting article on Martingale betting systems: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/ IIRC, a martingale strategy will eventually destroy you because it requires an exponentially sustainable bankroll to maintain the same risk of ruin. Also, 3,650 hands is far too small of a sample size for a game with such a small edge and you are probably just witnessing positive variance. See wh…

Yes, Martingale's doesn't raise your expected value above zero/negative for any games of chance. Towards infinity, it won't change your outcome -- you will still eventually loose all your money. If you factor in the times the player went bankrupt, your win percent probably won't look so hot.