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How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

economist.com

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Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#31

Post by nordsieck »

javajosh wrote: post #6

When these types of things are funded one always gets the sinking feeling that the money is just getting stolen and/or wasted by savvy insiders who know how to write grants or who know the right people. In fact, I think that's a reasonable assumption and some proof is required to show that it is not the case.

> When these types of things are funded one always gets the sinking feeling that the money is just getting stolen and/or wasted by savvy insiders who know how to write grants or who know the right people.

That's definitely the feeling I get when I see the grants that get given out for Broadband to underserved areas. So much money gets spent on infrastructure for not much actual benefit.

Hopefully these fabs don't follow down that road. If nothing else, it'll be a lot easier to check and see if the objective were achieved, compared to broadband which is inherently much more decentralized.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#32

Post by gorjusborg »

bob1029 wrote: post #18
vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

Careful. The cost of a fab makes it very difficult for competitors to start up. Working in a field with only a few competitors seems attractive, but you risk specializing in skills that only few businesses worldwide can leverage.

I used to work in semiconductors and transitioned to software when I realized how precarious that was.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#34

Post by addfgionio »

photochemsyn wrote: post #25

America's basic socioeconomic structual model is highly flawed and any company wanting to do manufacturing here will see obvious disadvantages compared to Europe or Asia. 1) Employers are responsible for employee health coverage, inflating employee costs by a significant degree. The rationale for this model among the investor class is that it makes employees dependent on their employer and limits the power of unions,…

>Construction and operation of new manufacturing facilities relies on a robust domestic infrastructure system, but American infrastructure (railroads, electricity grids, ports, etc.) is woefully decrepit in many areas and lags behind China and Europe. Again the reason is nobody wants to pay for it,

A whole lot of people want to pay for it. The problem is that a minority doesn't, and they've been able to ruin things for the rest of us.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#35

Post by dpflan »

bob1029 wrote: post #18
vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

I'm definitely interested in how the communities build up to support this long term, assuming best conditions. I'm curious about investment into education that can lead to further economic developments (e.g. rise in engineering education due to factors like proximity to tech jobs that can persist, i.e. working at a fab (in any capacity) is good job/career to learn/work towards).

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#36

Post by Spooky23 »

bob1029 wrote: post #18
vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

I've been thinking about moving out to that area. Building these fabs will do amazing things for the local community & economy. It is also likely the most resilient part of the TX power grid...

It’s the worst business to work for.

You’ll work 60 hours a week for shitty pay, and be the Yoda of some tool. In 10 years there will be a new magic tool. Then you start learning the Starbucks menu.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#37

Post by hospitalJail »

edgyquant wrote: post #4

At the very least it’s several hundred billion dollars worth of real. We’ll have to see if the policy sustains itself or not.

Does that include the several hundred billion dollars from CHIPS act?

That was a sad moment last year, I am extremely concerned we Zombified our tech sector.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#38

Post by bee_rider »

User23 wrote: post #29
gostsamo wrote: post #24

Surprisingly few people engage with the main points of the article. It is pointed out how much money are spent, but the article is about how profitable those fabs will be. The author is conservative in judgments, but they ask a few questions worth considering, mainly: are the fabs big and efficient enough to offset the slower build, which is also more expensive, for lower volumes of production.

The real question is how unprofitable will it be to remain dependent on Taiwan in the face of the inevitable conflict coming with China. US and Europe based fabs could literally lose money and require subsidies and still net out as less expensive.

Competition is inevitable, conflict, no at least I hope not. Of course, we (the US) can’t make them decide not to attack Taiwan, but our countries have managed the tricky situation so far.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#39

Post by shubb »

vel0city wrote: post #13

Judging by all the construction I see at the fabs around me, the people I see moving in to get the new jobs working at the fabs or related businesses, I'd say its pretty real to me and those around me. https://www.ti.com/about-ti/company/ti-at-a-glance/manufactu... https://news.ti.com/blog/2022/09/29/tis-new-300-millimeter-w... https://dallasinnovates.com/finisar-considers-3-billion-semi... https://www.dallasnews.com…

One of the interesting lessons of the past few years is that supply chain lead times are a thing and policy doesn't just happen because central planning says it should.

So, if there is a bubble in the chip supply pipeline, auto manufacture doesn't happen. If there is undersupply of precursor chemicals it takes a while to make vaccines at scale...

What you are talking about makes me think of the very long lead product that is skilled people. A significant proportion of fab employees are genuinely highly skilled workers who need a specialised physics degree and then additional training in order to optimize yields and things like that.

I think they can build the buildings and buy the machines but unless a lot of Taiwanese are willing to get on a plane and move to the US, it is going to take a long time to be able to replace their labour at the required scale.

Re: How real is America’s chipmaking renaissance?

#40

Post by 1980phipsi »

_8j50 wrote: post #5
adamanz wrote: post #3

https://archive.is/jmpBa

Thanks, but can't get past captcha. 12ft.io blocked it and archive.ph doesn't work on my browser due ri ssl error. Anyone know other sites?

I've been having problems with them since yesterday.

I had a little luck with archive.org/web, but it's not quite as stream-lined.

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