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Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

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Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#31
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is false. The Wagner column is 500 kms away from Moscow.

Hard to say what the videos in Moscow are of then if that’s the case.

Russian (state) controlled vehicles there for security? Can you link to sources?

The (very few) videos that I've seen look like Russian state vehicles.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#32
post #4

Will current regime resort to use of nuclear weapons against Wagner formations as they approach Moscow? After all, the state and the power regime are facing an existential risk.

Seems unlikely tbh, he will turn into a martyr, and irradiation of NATO countries will trigger A5.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#33

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

"So far this is not a coup, as there has been no bid to seize power from the government."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66006880

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#34
post #28
post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He explicitly claimed he is not against Putin, but against military leadership. So, it is totally not a coup per Prigozhin. It is kind of elementary school level of logic if you ask me, but it is the logic/argument Prigozhin is using.

So by this logic this is just a mutiny? To become a proper coup they would have to replace the government and the president who if I understand correctly is formally the leader of the military. In order to do that they should be marching towards the capital. Since this is what appears to be in progress, is it unreasonable to call it a "possible coup in progress"?

Not sure about mutiny, because he is not a soldier, technically. He is the leader of illegal but tolerated private mercenary company. (Yep Wagner are theoretically illegal per Russian law)

I am definitely not blaming anyone for calling it "possible coup" or "coup" or even "an attempt to start civil war". The original intent was to explain that coup in quotation marks is also alright term to use.

Edit: every single time I write "wagner are technically illegal in Russia" I get downvoted in HN. It is pattern at this point. So, guys, if that was reason for downvote, yep they are illegal per Russian law.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#35
post #30
post #27

This is off the hook. @mysaigin says the AN-24 shoot down is old... oh well. If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.

source?

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672528514547953664?s=20

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#36

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

Personally, if this was a coup, I’d say Wagner would have taken control of important infrastructure by now (e.g. the Kremlin, state tv, military depots, Putin / defence minister). Or been killed/arrested himself.

This feels more like a civil war. It might not last long of course. We’ll see.

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#37
post #27

This is off the hook. @mysaigin says the AN-24 shoot down is old... oh well. If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.

[deleted]

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#38
post #27

This is off the hook. @mysaigin says the AN-24 shoot down is old... oh well. If nothing else Putin's prerogatives just experienced a sudden realignment. Going to be hard to continue prosecuting the Ukraine invasion.

Is that actually confirmed? As in, is there a reason to believe it happened and that it is not some old video from elsewhere resurfacing? (People always post old videos on twitter claiming they relate to current situation.)

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#39
I am curious on how this will reflect on the Ukraine invasion: as far as I understand, Wagner was a huge source of soldiers on the front lines.

I am sure this coup, however it will ends, is a major source of distraction from the war. Meanwhile, Ukraine is pushing east: will they be able to use this coup to liberate some territories?

Re: Russia 'Coup' Live Forecast

#40

I wonder why they added quotation marks around "coup" in the headline? Is there anything nonstandardly-coupish about a military commander engaging in armed rebellion to overthrow the standing government? Seems to perfectly fit the textbook/dictionary definition of "coup".

If January 6th disorganized mob breaching into government building can be considered a coup, then organized military force taking control over 2 major cities in Russia is definitely a coup.

One of them attacked a governmental body of a country. The other one still has not. That is why it is in quotation marks.
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