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Germany Falls into Recession

cnn.com

31–40 of 203 posts

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#31
post #18

Actually the biggest blow was not the energy costs, but the interest rates. They went from 1-2% now at 4-5, even 6% for real-estate ( new building and old ) while the prices are still at last year level. For other types of financing, I had a "good" offer which went to 12% interest. I felt like in a 3rd world country. With such expensive money, nothing will be done. The construction economy is really going dow from mi…

The energy cost might be the cause of that interest rate though.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#32
It's going to be tough for Germany to resume economic growth without a strong chemicals industry. Much of that depends on cheap natural gas for profitability. Germany can import gas from other sources to replace Russian pipelines that have been cut off, but costs for those new sources are too high to make most bulk chemical manufacturing profitable. We will probably see those industries migrate from Germany to places with cheaper gas supplies.

https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/inside-germanys-indust...

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#33
post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

stagflation...its in Germany, coming to the US...there is only one way out: we get poorer

The US is not getting poorer nor is inflation still out of control

> The US is not getting poorer

then why am I being asked to bail out a generation's college loans?

then why is food bank use at an all time high?

then why are more six-figure earners reporting to be living paycheck-to-paycheck?

then why is personal credit card debt at an all time high?

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#34
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The ECB has a real problem with asymmetry. Can't cut rates just for Germany. It's as if a single currency and a single central bank for 25 different economies with different levels of debt, doesn't really work that well in every situation. > At the same time there's high inflation in Austria Inflation in Austria is now mostly due to greedflation. If you cross the border into Germany the same goods are suddenly cheap…

A monetary union without a fiscal union doesn't really make sense, imo. The US (mostly) works because states run balanced budgets(if you ignore underfunded pensions) and the federal govt corrects trade imbalances by taking money from some states and sending it to others. Economists in the EU must have understood this and if I had to guess they assumed a fiscal union would develop at some point?

> A monetary union without a fiscal union doesn't really make sense [..] Economists in the EU must have understood this [..]

They almost certainly did, there are two other groups who may not have done - European politicians ... and European voters.

Although it's more likely that politicians did understand it, but were reluctant to talk about, at least in front of the voters.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#35
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Was it really a benefit? The only benefit is belief that Germany won't let euro fail and will bailout anybody no matter how shitty situation is. On the other side, this prevents fixing root causes. Why fix anything and make people angry if you can ride the wave, hope for the best and in worst case someone will bail you out? That's why we have this massive inflation. No real value is created, yet everybody is flush wi…

>That's why we have this massive inflation. No real value is created, yet everybody is flush with the money. Indeed. Most of EU's economic growth since the 2008 crash was just printing money and propping up assets. A bunch of wealthy boomers buying expensive houses from one another does not mean actual economic prosperity. We just printed our way into prosperity but Covid supply chain disruptions, the energy shortage…

And lots of money poured into various „EU-funded“ (= money pulled out of thin air) programmes. All sorts Bs training that creates no wealth. Sure, topics may read nice on paper. But does it create any value? All while basic economy is going down the drain.

Who cares if everybody and his or her dog can discuss emotional intelligence, yet we end up relying on China more and more? Both to import crucial stuff and export crappy extravaganza nobody else is buying.

The green whatever plan is great example. Let's fuck over our farmers and kick out remaining manufacturing. Just to pretend we're soooo environment-friendly. And then import fuckton of stuff from far away. Thankfully there will be CO2 import tax. But CO2 regulations is not the only thing curbing local economies while faking low CO2 reports in far away countries may be a lucrative industry...

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#36
post #18

Actually the biggest blow was not the energy costs, but the interest rates. They went from 1-2% now at 4-5, even 6% for real-estate ( new building and old ) while the prices are still at last year level. For other types of financing, I had a "good" offer which went to 12% interest. I felt like in a 3rd world country. With such expensive money, nothing will be done. The construction economy is really going dow from mi…

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

Homeowners who do have low interest loans will probably also devote much of their disposable income to paying down the principal in anticipation that rates will rise later. That means less spending on home improvements, consumer products, vehicles, travel, etc which will act as a further drag on economic growth.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#37
post #18

Actually the biggest blow was not the energy costs, but the interest rates. They went from 1-2% now at 4-5, even 6% for real-estate ( new building and old ) while the prices are still at last year level. For other types of financing, I had a "good" offer which went to 12% interest. I felt like in a 3rd world country. With such expensive money, nothing will be done. The construction economy is really going dow from mi…

The energy cost might be the cause of that interest rate though.

What correlation do you see to get to that conclusion?

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#38
post #18

Actually the biggest blow was not the energy costs, but the interest rates. They went from 1-2% now at 4-5, even 6% for real-estate ( new building and old ) while the prices are still at last year level. For other types of financing, I had a "good" offer which went to 12% interest. I felt like in a 3rd world country. With such expensive money, nothing will be done. The construction economy is really going dow from mi…

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

If things continue, in 5-10 years, dollars will be worth 50 cents, and it should be MUCH easier to pay your mortgage.

And, I'll eat my hat if we don't get back to ZIRP sometime in the next 10 years.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#39
They shouldn't be shutting down nuclear. Build more nuclear reactors. That will provide more clean energy and a lot of jobs. Modernize the grid. Make it a smarter grid that is more resilient to harm. These projects pay for themselves quickly and are easy to finance with how much wealth Germany has.

Re: Germany Falls into Recession

#40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a brief interaction with a real estate agent a few months back and he told me they really have trouble selling houses now at those interest rates. The run on housing apparently has dialed back significantly. He also mentioned that he thinks in around 5 and 10 years time the market might be flooded with houses people bought at low interest rates because they will not be able to pay their mortgage at these new in…

If things continue, in 5-10 years, dollars will be worth 50 cents, and it should be MUCH easier to pay your mortgage. And, I'll eat my hat if we don't get back to ZIRP sometime in the next 10 years.

Atleast for the past few decades, salaries have increased less than what's needed to compensate for the change of value of the currency. Meaning the amount you make each year will on average be worth less.
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