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Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

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Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#31

Post by bnhjt »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10
sho_hn wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To this day so many people in Europe cannot engage in strategic thinking. Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length of an academic paper and engage its contents. That this thread is for the moment mostly hurried comments desperate to control the message shows as much. And it's tightly related to inability to do strategic thinking.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

Why single out Germany? War hawk Tony Blair condoned a BP deal after the invasion of Chechnya:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1046295978238979863

There is a pipeline from the Nord Stream terminal in Germany to the UK. Nord Stream is owned by Russia, Germany, France, and The Netherlands. Gas was resold to plenty of EU countries, including Eastern European ones.

Poland and Ukraine collected transit fees for Russian oil/gas long after Nord stream was blown up.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#32

Post by tuukkah »

Mlller wrote: post #24
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

“Eastern Europe has been parroting […] Germany stuck its fingers in its ears” Or perhaps Germany couldnʼt hear them, because their actions spoke louder than their words – a majority of Eastern European countries had made themselves more dependent on Russian gas than Germany: - Hungary: 110.4 percent - Latvia: 100.1 percent - Finland: 92.4 percent - Estonia: 86.5 percent - Czechia: 86.0 percent - Slovenia: 81.0 percen…

Your list does not illustrate what you claim. E.g. Finland was not at all dependent on Russian gas, because Finland does not use much gas, so 92.4 percent of nothing.

Meanwhile, Germany's gas imports were huge and you cannot leave 58.9 percent of your population to freeze in the winter anyway.

EDIT: Also, Finland has this in the laws:

> There is an alternative fuel obligation, so that in the event of a gas supply disturbance, other fuels can be immediately substituted.

It's as if they prepared for an event like this ;-)

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#33

Post by spamizbad »

it_citizen wrote: post #22
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. You can't possibly tell me with a straight face that your argument is "Germany didn't know that Russia invading 3 countries was bad and it hoped Russia would come around if it just kept buying gas from them and pumping trillions in their economy which Russia spent on its military would make them more peaceful" . It's sa…

I am glad Germany didn't stop trading with the US after they invaded Irak by producing fake witnesses, or the second time by fabricating proofs, or Afghanistan. Diplomacy is not black and white.

As an American: It should’ve. If a firmer hand was taken it could’ve saved thousands of lives. France and Germany wagged its finger but basically waved us through.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#34

Post by jackfoxy »

ivan_gammel wrote: post #23
ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Much more troubling: Few people worldwide have the attention span and stamina to read a text of the length off an academic paper and engage its contents. You don't need to read academic papers to know that Russia = evil. Eastern Europe has been parroting this for decades but Germany stuck its fingers in its ears and went "la-la-la-la, I can't hear you over the sound of my cheap gas brokered by our lord and savior, G…

[flagged]

The USA didn't invade Texas. Texians (Anglo Texans who had migrated) and Tejanos (Mexican Texans) alike were fed up with Santa Anna's rule and successfully rebelled, forming the Republic of Texas which lasted for 10 years, at which point the Republic accepted the American offer of annexation in a referendum. The Mexican/American war spun out of the aftermath of the annexation.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#35

Post by lxm »

tuukkah wrote: post #20

The German goverment went as far as nationalising Uniper, the big gas and energy company. Now, Russia has made an even more destructive move and seized Uniper's and Fortum's Russian subsidiaries. (Fortum lost billions in both cases.)

Was there an alternative to Uniper’s nationalization?

It was insolvent and forced into fixed price deliveries that it had to procure through suddenly expensive spot market.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#36

Post by nawgz »

sounds wrote: post #18
mperham wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article: Moreover, the country did not simply get lucky with particularly mild winter temperatures, as often alleged. The average winter temperature in the 2022/23 winter of 2.9°C was actually slightly colder than the average temperature over the four previous winters.

It's possible to have a lower mean temperature and still use less total heat. Stats, right? E.g. if the temperature is warmer at night.

Unless there's some non-linear interactions that I'm unaware of, it seems like the mean temp is the only thing you'd need to know wrt how much energy you need to use to keep it roughly at some other temp thru the season

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#37

Post by pydry »

jackfoxy wrote: post #34
ivan_gammel wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The USA didn't invade Texas. Texians (Anglo Texans who had migrated) and Tejanos (Mexican Texans) alike were fed up with Santa Anna's rule and successfully rebelled, forming the Republic of Texas which lasted for 10 years, at which point the Republic accepted the American offer of annexation in a referendum. The Mexican/American war spun out of the aftermath of the annexation.

>Republic accepted the American offer of annexation in a referendum.

A bit like Crimea then.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#38

Post by pydry »

nr2x wrote: post #25
it_citizen wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is very simplified. A lot of western countries, Germany first, believed that if we traded and opened up to those countries, they would naturally tend to adopt western values. It turned out to be incorrect. China being an even better example. But it was not a crazy assumption at the time, and coming after the fact is hindsight 20/20. Honestly, even knowing how things turned out, I am proud that the west tried.

And yet the USA and Poland were screaming at the top of their lungs to not do nord stream and the German public didn’t care. At all.

Of course they didn't care. The USA were screaming because they wanted to flog more expensive LNG to Germany and Poland was screaming because they wanted their transit fees.

The US screamed so loudly that Nord Stream exploded.

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#39

Post by tuukkah »

lxm wrote: post #35
tuukkah wrote: post #20

The German goverment went as far as nationalising Uniper, the big gas and energy company. Now, Russia has made an even more destructive move and seized Uniper's and Fortum's Russian subsidiaries. (Fortum lost billions in both cases.)

Was there an alternative to Uniper’s nationalization? It was insolvent and forced into fixed price deliveries that it had to procure through suddenly expensive spot market.

The government could have relaxed the fixed prices, and perhaps they did that anyway?

Re: Not Even a Recession: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect [pdf]

#40

Post by dragonwriter »

ChuckNorris89 wrote: post #27
ivan_gammel wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

>Russia invading Chechnya is like USA invading Texas. Chechnya was an independent country in 1991, as was Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Belarus and other ex-USSR republics post 1991. It had no right invading Chechnya.

> Chechnya was an independent country in 1991, as was Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Belarus and other ex-USSR republics post 1991.

Chechnya is different from the others; the others were constituent republic of the USSR that became independent when the USSR dissolved; Chechnya was part (and not an administratively distinct part) of the Checheno-Ingush ASSR, which was not a direct constituent of the USSR but of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, which became the Russian Federation.

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