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China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

fortune.com

31–40 of 87 posts

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#31
post #20

What a weird headline. China isn't "calling in" the loans. Nothing sudden is happening here. They are following their preset repayment schedule. The author is upset that China isn't willingly choosing to forgive billions in loans.

Meanwhile the IMF, used as tool by western capitalism, has drove countries to the ground, using its loans to pressure for all kind of unpopular ultra-neoliberal reforms that destabilized countries, driving people to extreme poverty, and shredding their social safety nets. Then there are the direct loans from those "forgiving" debtors (as per the article) which always come with all kinds of strings attached, political…

This is a completely false narrative.

The IMF is a lender of last resort. Countries only go to it to borrow when they absolutely need money and have nowhere else to go. And for obvious reasons, when countries are in such desperate straits that literally no private or public entity will lend money to them, the IMF requires fairly stringent rules so their leaders don’t just pocket the money and run away, or don’t spend it on buying elections, as opposed to rebuilding the economy. The reason the IMF has refused to allow Pakistan to draw down money from its IMF loans is because under the Imran Khan govt they spent it on oil subsidies and allowing arbitrage on the Pakistani currency (interesting that if as you say the IMF is a tool used by the west to control countries, they are the ones saying no to a country borrowing from the country, while the country is going out of its way to get money from the IMF).

It’s not a surprise that countries that can literally not raise funds from any private or public entities are expected to endure financial restraint (since it was the lack of restraint that brought them there in the first place).

But the Belt and Road loans were not to desperate countries desperately looking for funds. The Belt and Road initiative was for countries, which at the time were financially stable. Their leaders figured that getting sparkly Chinese infrastructure investment would boost their re-election chances. And as a bonus, unlike the World Bank funds (which is the correct equivalent to the BRI loans), the Chinese didn’t require you to prove the economic viability of the projects, they didn’t require you to raise additional private capital for the project, and most importantly, the Chinese had absolutely no qualms about their companies personally bribing the leaders of the recipient companies tens of millions of dollars.

In return, all these countries’ leaders had to agree to was paying higher interest rates, not creating local jobs because the Chinese would export their own workers, and not building local businesses because Chinese companies would get all the contracts. But that was a future leader and citizens’ problem, while they could stash the cool Chinese payoffs in London and Dubai.

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#32
post #22
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but also does things just to advance democracy Or so it self-advetises. "Advancing democracy" originated as an anti-communist theme, in the Cold war era fight for global influence, and after 1991 it turned into a hammer to yield against mostly Arab countries and others with resources and/or independent foreign policy. This democracy advancing didn't have issues sponsoring and supporting dictatorships (say, Pinochet…

Exactly. The democracy advanced always exactly matches the current US interests. Funny that. We’re just so damn perfect we never ever ever get anything wrong.

OP compared the US to a loan shark, you're arguing against a strawman

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#33
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Meanwhile the IMF, used as tool by western capitalism, has drove countries to the ground, using its loans to pressure for all kind of unpopular ultra-neoliberal reforms that destabilized countries, driving people to extreme poverty, and shredding their social safety nets. Then there are the direct loans from those "forgiving" debtors (as per the article) which always come with all kinds of strings attached, political…

The IMF has a history of releasing loans to clear interest payments on older loans. They also force target countries to grow cash crops instead of wheat, for example. This forces the client country to become dependent on food imports, usually from the US.

Here’s a simple question. If the IMF loans are so terrible, why do countries apply for them? And if giving out loans to countries is such an awesome tool for the IMF, why is it refusing to allow Pakistan to draw down already approved loans?

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#34
post #7
post #3

There's a weird frame to this article that seems to be painting China as a "loan shark" villain pressuring the poor debtor countries. But that's not the way loans work at this scale. If this debt is bad, it's bad, and pressure isn't going to get those RMB back. China is on the hook here, and that's extremely bad for China . At the end of the day Kenya or Zambia can just refuse to pay (it's not like their credit is gr…

I don't know what's going on behind the scenes, but if I were to speculate, they probably have a contingency plan for this scenario which involves concessions from those countries if they default. Maybe land or mineral rights, maybe something more complicated. That's just a guess from my side though.

They already repossessed a port in Sri Lanka

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The important context is that these loans were given with the expectation that the recipient would eventually default. These loans are backed by resource rights, and would also giving China considerable leverage to demand the right to create ports / military bases, etc. Anybody paying attention has seen this coming miles away (example: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.04.014 ), but such loans are too tempting…

Sure, but wouldn’t China be relying on those countries willingly giving those things (ports, resources, etc) to them? Why would any country do that?

If the debtor country doesn't cooperate the lender has all manner of soft and hard power to fall back on. They can fund political opponents or instigate coups to install a puppet government. Organize sanctions, train guerilla fighters, or even overtly start a war.

Needless to say, China is not exactly a pioneer in this space...

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#36

What a weird headline. China isn't "calling in" the loans. Nothing sudden is happening here. They are following their preset repayment schedule. The author is upset that China isn't willingly choosing to forgive billions in loans.

The important context is that these loans were given with the expectation that the recipient would eventually default. These loans are backed by resource rights, and would also giving China considerable leverage to demand the right to create ports / military bases, etc. Anybody paying attention has seen this coming miles away (example: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.04.014 ), but such loans are too tempting…

No, this is not true.

The loans were not made by special investment banks but regular banks of China, if they are not repayed it will be havoc.

They expect the loans to be repaid, and are definitely in trouble now that there are defaults.

Also the terms were less generous than IMF etc..

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The important context is that these loans were given with the expectation that the recipient would eventually default. These loans are backed by resource rights, and would also giving China considerable leverage to demand the right to create ports / military bases, etc. Anybody paying attention has seen this coming miles away (example: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.04.014 ), but such loans are too tempting…

Sure, but wouldn’t China be relying on those countries willingly giving those things (ports, resources, etc) to them? Why would any country do that?

Sri Lanka handed over a port to China to pay off debt..

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/world/asia/china-sri-lank...

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The IMF has a history of releasing loans to clear interest payments on older loans. They also force target countries to grow cash crops instead of wheat, for example. This forces the client country to become dependent on food imports, usually from the US.

Here’s a simple question. If the IMF loans are so terrible, why do countries apply for them? And if giving out loans to countries is such an awesome tool for the IMF, why is it refusing to allow Pakistan to draw down already approved loans?

The comment you're responding to is typical cope from corrupt, inept, and poorly-run countries looking for excuses on why they remain poor. I see this in my country (Nigeria) too...that somehow it's the IMF keeping us poor, not our stupid leaders and an equally stupid populace voting them in.

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#39
post #20

What a weird headline. China isn't "calling in" the loans. Nothing sudden is happening here. They are following their preset repayment schedule. The author is upset that China isn't willingly choosing to forgive billions in loans.

Meanwhile the IMF, used as tool by western capitalism, has drove countries to the ground, using its loans to pressure for all kind of unpopular ultra-neoliberal reforms that destabilized countries, driving people to extreme poverty, and shredding their social safety nets. Then there are the direct loans from those "forgiving" debtors (as per the article) which always come with all kinds of strings attached, political…

Every loan comes with conditions. No one is forcing countries to take those IMF loans. They always have the option of living within their means.

Re: China is calling in loans to dozens of countries from Pakistan to Kenya

#40
post #3

There's a weird frame to this article that seems to be painting China as a "loan shark" villain pressuring the poor debtor countries. But that's not the way loans work at this scale. If this debt is bad, it's bad, and pressure isn't going to get those RMB back. China is on the hook here, and that's extremely bad for China . At the end of the day Kenya or Zambia can just refuse to pay (it's not like their credit is gr…

This explains why the debt is bad for Pakistan, Kenya. > In Pakistan, millions of textile workers have been laid off because the country has too much foreign debt and can’t afford to keep the electricity on and machines running. > In Kenya, the government has held back paychecks to thousands of civil service workers to save cash to pay foreign loans. The president’s chief economic adviser tweeted last month, “Salarie…

Perhaps Pakistan should cancel their nuclear weapons program and stop funding terrorists. That would probably free up some money to pay for electricity.
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