If everything stood still with nothing more than GPT-4 we are a few years ago from realising the disruption of just that alone
This time, it feels different
31–40 of 249 posts
Re: This time, it feels different
#32The haiku at the end is not a haiku, technically. As a non-business person, I imagine that folks would typically want some correctness guarantees, which seem near-impossible with today's LLMs. What kind of business use-cases do they enable? Probably a failure of imagination on my part, but I can't think of many tasks that can be done consistently well by AI that can't also be done with simpler software.
I’m both a business person and an engineer. I recently did a short workshop where a marketing guy took us through using GPT and Midjourney to iterate through new business ideas. In the 4 hours of the workshop, a bunch of mostly non developer people generated about 500 business ideas using GPT, took the top ideas, and turned them into business pitches. A couple of people in the room thought the idea their promoting came up with was good enough to run with.
This sort of stuff is fuzzy, even without AI. In many ways it’s about exploring the knowledge space rather than seeking specific answers. None of this requires correctness because there are no correct answers to begin with.
Even in computing, correctness is not always important. I recently asked GPT to produce a bunch of names from the Austin Powers universe in order to populate a demo database. I asked for them in JSON format and in 20 seconds I had what I needed. There is no wrong answer for that, either.
Re: This time, it feels different
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the 70s the top 1% couldn’t even conceive of the power they’d have in their pockets one day. Today both billionaires and the rest of the world can have access to that same power. We’re all carrying the same phones in our pockets after all.
Power to search the internet != Food and housing.
Poor people benefit from lightbulbs too.
Re: This time, it feels different
#34imagine what better, faster, more “intelligent” systems to follow in the wake of what exists today would be capable of doing
Is this a given? Sure it will continue to improve but by how much? 200% or 2%?
That’s the question. Anyone could’ve measured my height when I was 14 and predicted that I would be 35 feet tall today. But human bodies have limits.
What are the limits of LLMs? It’s somewhere between ChatGPT-4 and the “digital god” that I’ve heard some proclaim is right around the corner.
The boring but very possible answer is ChatGPT-4 might be near the pinnacle.
Re: This time, it feels different
#35Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…
You've also lived through many technologies that failed to achieve mainstream adoption despite demonstrating comparable levels of hype.
I'm constantly resisting the urge to write "MongoDB is webscale" whenever these threads show up.
For the uninitiated: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1636198. The original video is gone but it lives on YouTube: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b2F-DItXtZs.
Re: This time, it feels different
#36Geez another article on the AI Spookiness? How many is that this month now? Most of these articles border on science fiction and involve a lot of projection. While I am concerned in some ways with AI, particularly in mass surveillance and public manipulation via bots, what else can we do other than be reactive to _real_ AI applications when _deployed_? Then we start to discuss proper policy towards AI. Until we see s…
Very well written article. Author talks about his own journey in this space from usual skepticism to belief and why it feels different this time. But it certainly is very well written. I doubt if a LLM can write like that.
Re: This time, it feels different
#37I look forward to Atlas getting a voice interface and responding GPTChat style. That will cement it for most of us, that there's something new under the sun.
Until then I expect the denial and explainers (It's just another technology! Like phones!) will have the floor.
The discussion is healthy because we'd like to anticipate changes before they swamp us. It's important to speculate. The denigration of speculation is less helpful.
I'm happy to watch from the sidelines. But I sure pay more attention to the folks trying to imagine the future, than the folks claiming nothing will change.
Re: This time, it feels different
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
In the 70s the top 1% couldn’t even conceive of the power they’d have in their pockets one day. Today both billionaires and the rest of the world can have access to that same power. We’re all carrying the same phones in our pockets after all.
Power to search the internet != Food and housing.
Rich people benefit from poor people too
Re: This time, it feels different
#39> I have come across people who do programming, legal work, business, accountancy and finance, fashion design, architecture, graphic design, research, teaching, cooking, travel planning, event management etc., all of whom have started using the same tool, ChatGPT
if I found out my lawyer/account/tax advisor/broker had fed my privileged information into ChatGPT I'd be reporting them to their regulator and they'd be struck off
Re: This time, it feels different
#40Every few years a new technology goes mainstream and quickly changes the world around us rather fundamentally. I’ve lived through the web in 1995. Google in 2000. Web 2.0 in 2005. Smartphones in 2009. Now it’s generative AI in 2023. Every time, there’s an argument about whether it’s the end of the world or a total nothingburger. Every time, industry leaders are knocked off their perch. Every time, there are surprise…
Your timeline is interesting. I've heard people complain about nothing new happening. So I like seeing it laid out like that, so regularly every five years. Then not for fourteen.
I still think it's rubbish for people to demand two revolutions a decade or they get bored but I understand the scope a bit better.