it'll be fun to see the pikachu face when engineers are expected to do more, with the aid of these tools, but are not paid any more money.
If they’re able to produce twice the work in half the time, wouldn’t it make sense to pay them less?
Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
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Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#32I think OpenAI has a defensible moat by having the first movers' advantage. As the ease of producing written content declines, we can expect the amount of written content to increase in a consummate fashion. Due to OpenAI's position, a vast majority of the newly generated data will come from OpenAI's models. When it comes time to train new models with superior network structures or with new data, no one else is going to be able to differentiate human-generated text from LLM generated text. OpenAI's training data should become far superior to others.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#33The non-public moat is big multiyear government contracts with dark money. And there is room there for both players :)
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#34I disagree with this. It's too expensive to train high quality models. For example I don't see how anyone would make an open-source GPT4 unless OpenAI leaks their model to the public.
No one has created even something closed-source that is equal to GPT4.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#35[deleted]
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#36There is a huge (non-public) moat. It's big multiyear government contracts with dark money. And there is room there for both players :)
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#37Having enough scale to perpetually offer free/low-cost compute is a moat.
The primary reason ChatGPT went viral in the first place was because it was free, with no restrictions. Back in 2019, GPT-2 1.5B was made freely accessible by a single developer via the TalkToTransformers website, which was the very first time many people talking about AI text generation...then the owner got hit with sticker shock from the GPU compute needed to scale.
AI text generation competitors like Cohere and Anthropic will never be able to compete with Microsoft/Google/Amazon on marginal cost.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#38Can someone dumb this down for me because I don’t understand why this is a surprise… people are getting excited and collaborating to improve and innovate the same models that these larger companies are milking to death
Basically, if I understand correctly, the "status quo" was that the big models by OpenAI and Google that are much better (raw) than anything that was open source recently, would remain the greatest, and the moat would be the technical complexity of training and running those big models.
However, the open sourcing led to tons of people exploring tons of avenues in an extremely quick fashion, leading to the development of models that are able to close in on that performance in a much smaller envelope, destroying the only moat and making it possible for people with limited resources to experiment and innovate.
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#39>Research institutions all over the world are building on each other’s work, exploring the solution space in a breadth-first way that far outstrips our own capacity.
BroadMind beats DeepMind!
Re: Google “We have no moat, and neither does OpenAI”
#40what this proves to me without a doubt is that silo'd and proprietary iteration i still very clearly also a massive disadvantage. i really hope companies internalize that. if they just keep scooping up and hiding open-source improvements they very well may still be left behind.
the final quote from the doc:
> And in the end, OpenAI doesn’t matter. They are making the same mistakes we are in their posture relative to open source, and their ability to maintain an edge is necessarily in question. Open source alternatives can and will eventually eclipse them unless they change their stance. In this respect, at least, we can make the first move.