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International Security and Estonia 2023

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Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#31

Post by girvo »

actionfromafar wrote: post #24
yostrovs wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Merkel was widely misquoted. Here's what she actually said. Note that she referred to Ukraine getting more time in order to mature enough to maybe join NATO, not to be able to fight Russia on its own: "I thought that the introduction of NATO accession of Ukraine and Georgia, discussed in 2008, was wrong. The countries did not have the necessary prerequisites for this, nor was it fully understood what the consequences…

Yes. You may dislike Merkel for her strategic decisions regarding fossil gas (I do), but there's no need to misquote her. That reads like a solid take to me.

I mean the simplest reason to misquote her is to muddy the waters and spread disinformation, so “no need” I don’t think quite holds. For some of the commenters here it seems they do have a need to do just that.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#32

Post by jnsaff2 »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #26
engineer_22 wrote: post #4

For context, Estonia is a NATO member with significant Russian minority population

And a former USSR country (although not willingly), and it shares a border with Russia, and it's the most remote NATO country. That said, if Russia does try anything, that will escalate the conflict and get NATO involved directly.

> a former USSR country (although not willingly)

this is a weird construct, we were not willingly part of soviet union, not not willingly former

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#33

Post by tokai »

paganel wrote: post #15
tokai wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who broke the Budapest memorandum? Russia was all alone in that. It's impossible to make an agreement with Russia, as a state actor or not, while being sure that Russia won't break it the second it is beneficial for them. Claiming the contrary is pure ideology.

> It's impossible to make an agreement with Russia Other people have mentioned it bellow me, but see what Merkel herself ("accused" of being on Putin's side, funnily enough) had to say about the Minsk accords.

Others has also cleared up the lies and misquotes. Why do you jump directly to tangent lies, instead of dealing with the main argument - that we are where we are because of Russia not upholding its promises?

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#34

Post by girvo »

dmpk2k wrote: post #16
duxup wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If someone in Russia could just remove Putin it would save a lot of Ukrainian and Russian lives.

There is the mistaken understanding that this is all just an artefact of Putin. It's not. Most of the Russian elite agree with this war, since they (collectively, including before Putin) have been warning that they will not allow Ukraine to join NATO since the 1990s. This is all well documented. All the bluster about "denazification and demilitarization" and helping the DNR/LPR aside, this war is entirely about NATO.…

It’s not, and hasn’t ever really been, just about Ukraine “joining” NATO, because that was never on the cards. It still isn’t, even despite all of this. There’s a lot more to it.

Also you’re incorrect in your assessment of most of the Russian elite thinking this war was a good idea, that’s just not true, or you’re making the mistake of taking statements by them at face value, which my Ukrainian/Russian extended family will be the first to tell you to be careful of.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#35

Post by another2another »

luckylion wrote: post #22
another2another wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that. They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) on th…

> They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) And to be clear here, "their stuff" is (in their eyes) everything that was once part of the Soviet Union. Most of it is currently out of reach, but not attacking Poland next is a tactical decision acknowledging EU/Nato firepower, it's not because "we don't see a reason to attack a neighbor".

Exactly, and that's why most of Putin's vitriol and propaganda is directed against NATO, because it's a real impediment to them taking it all back.

It's also interesting to see how strongly the Baltic nations and Poland are pushing to support Ukraine, since they lived long enough under the Soviet heel and they definitely don't want to get back to that.

I have no idea what's up with Hungary though.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#36

Post by nordsieck »

another2another wrote: post #14
paganel wrote: post #5

[flagged]

>Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table. I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that. They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) on th…

>> Russia seems to believe it can “bomb” Ukraine to the negotiating table.

> I doubt Russia wants any such thing, they just want their toy back in their pram and the good feeling that having Ukraine under their heel gave them, as well as any useful resources Ukraine might have - agricultural land, seaports, raw materials. Stuff like that.

In a technical sense, I can agree with you. The opening weeks of the war showed that Russia ideally wanted to do to Ukraine what the US did the Iraq in 1990-1991. If they had their druthers, they'd conquer the country without damaging any infrastructure. The only trouble is that Russia's military doesn't have that capability.

And Russia is perfectly willing to fall back on plan b: use artillery, drones, and missiles to level literally every building in the country as they try to conquer it 1 square meter at a time.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#38

Post by tokai »

another2another wrote: post #35
luckylion wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They don't want to negotiate with anybody, they just want their stuff (back?) And to be clear here, "their stuff" is (in their eyes) everything that was once part of the Soviet Union. Most of it is currently out of reach, but not attacking Poland next is a tactical decision acknowledging EU/Nato firepower, it's not because "we don't see a reason to attack a neighbor".

Exactly, and that's why most of Putin's vitriol and propaganda is directed against NATO, because it's a real impediment to them taking it all back. It's also interesting to see how strongly the Baltic nations and Poland are pushing to support Ukraine, since they lived long enough under the Soviet heel and they definitely don't want to get back to that. I have no idea what's up with Hungary though.

>I have no idea what's up with Hungary though.

The more autocratic a country is the more it is sympathetic to Russia. Autocrats like that autocrats can take what they want.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#39

Post by actionfromafar »

girvo wrote: post #34
dmpk2k wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is the mistaken understanding that this is all just an artefact of Putin. It's not. Most of the Russian elite agree with this war, since they (collectively, including before Putin) have been warning that they will not allow Ukraine to join NATO since the 1990s. This is all well documented. All the bluster about "denazification and demilitarization" and helping the DNR/LPR aside, this war is entirely about NATO.…

It’s not, and hasn’t ever really been, just about Ukraine “joining” NATO, because that was never on the cards. It still isn’t, even despite all of this. There’s a lot more to it. Also you’re incorrect in your assessment of most of the Russian elite thinking this war was a good idea, that’s just not true, or you’re making the mistake of taking statements by them at face value, which my Ukrainian/Russian extended famil…

It also depends on what you mean by elite. The social elite in Moscow or St Petersburg does not run the show. Neither does the military. The security apparatus does.

Re: International Security and Estonia 2023

#40

Post by actionfromafar »

jnsaff2 wrote: post #32
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And a former USSR country (although not willingly), and it shares a border with Russia, and it's the most remote NATO country. That said, if Russia does try anything, that will escalate the conflict and get NATO involved directly.

> a former USSR country (although not willingly) this is a weird construct, we were not willingly part of soviet union, not not willingly former

I think the former (not willingly part of) is the intended reading, referrring to how the Baltics were forced into the Soviet fold, as opposed to how some other constituent republics joined. (Not to belittle the foul play of the creation of Soviet Union in general, either.)
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