Am I the only one with “99 Luftballoons” in my head?
Nena probably got an extra $5 in royalties this month from the large number of people who immediately thought of that song.
U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
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Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#32I wonder what the cost to take down the balloon was for the US (including monitoring it) vs. the cost of the balloon for China. If the ratio is something greater than 10:1, then I would say China got a pretty good ROI on a small investment.
It was probably a much higher ratio than that. Wouldn't be surprised if it was actually 1000:1. On the other hand, the military is constantly in need of new drills to keep everyone's skills sharp. This was a pretty good one for them with no negative outcomes beyond whatever data might have been collected and sent back to China.
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#33I wonder what the cost to take down the balloon was for the US (including monitoring it) vs. the cost of the balloon for China. If the ratio is something greater than 10:1, then I would say China got a pretty good ROI on a small investment.
I really do wonder if this is them testing that they can reliably and cheaply get high-altitude balloons to the U.S. mainland. In the event of a military conflict, I can imagine them swarming us with these. They must cost far, far less than the average American military aircraft. If our air power becomes partly tied up defending Taiwan, dropping bombs from craft like these might be an effective strategy to demoralize the U.S. population. I commented this above but I feel it's worth repeating here: the only casualties in the U.S. mainland during WW2 were Japanese balloons dropping bombs on the west coast[1].
I also wonder if this operation will end up backfiring. Suddenly, lots of people in the U.S. have Chinese aggression on their mind. Knowing Americans pretty well, I would expect this to actually increase public support for the defense of Taiwan. Inshallah.
1. https://amp.smh.com.au/world/north-america/when-japanese-bal...
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#34Am I the only one with “99 Luftballoons” in my head?
It was supposed to be a warning, not a handbook!
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#35I actually think it might just be a stray weather balloon. If they considered it a security threat they would've downed it before it reached continental US. Overall it's a fair resolution. It's a good political move to raise public awareness of tensions with the PRC (you'd be surprised how many people don't know). Downing it is mostly symbollic and completes the safety narrative.
I’m not in the defense industry neither know how the Chinese spy agency works but I guess there are more covert ways to spy than sending a 20ft ballon half way around the world.
I expected this to be some dude’s project that got blown out of proportion.
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
I don't know about that, those were spotted by the civilians using not exactly high tech gears.
That doesn't meam that the military didn't spot it first but just didn't tell anyone.
It would be pretty absurd to believe the US military is not tracking every inch of its own air space.
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#37Earlier quoted context omitted.
What information could the balloon collect that satellite or cars on the ground not collect? Air samples?
Possibly an Operation Sea-Spray[0] like biological weapons test? Not sure how they would do it exactly, but possibly some sort of stimulant in the form of an extremely fine powder. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Sea-Spray
Im almost certain that they would have heavily tested and analyzed the balloon and its payload as soon as it got near the US to ensure that there were no unusual emmisions coming from it.
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
The trick is to shoot it down in a way it falls slowly so you can retrieve it and see what is in it, although, I suspect our intelligence agencies have a pretty good idea already. I have no idea of course, but one thing I thought would be a Stingray, at that altitude you could intercept thousands of cell calls. I doubt that's what it is but the other thing is if it has any radio jamming capabilities or other things o…
It would be fairly rudimentary (in context!) to fit such a device with sensors against certain intrusions (e.g. loss of balloon pressure) which would then trigger near-instant self destruction of electronics. I would be quite surprised if such a high tech spy device did not have such contingencies as part of it's design. And suspect it's probably one of the reasons why the risk of an overland shootdown wasn't taken -…
True, although, evidence of offensive transmitters is difficult to completely destroy, heavy heat sinks and so forth. Simply erasing memory does not obliterate such clues.
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#39I actually think it might just be a stray weather balloon. If they considered it a security threat they would've downed it before it reached continental US. Overall it's a fair resolution. It's a good political move to raise public awareness of tensions with the PRC (you'd be surprised how many people don't know). Downing it is mostly symbollic and completes the safety narrative.
Why is everything a narrative these days? That word comes up with ridiculous frequency.
Do we believe we are part of some kind of Truman show experiment?
As for it being a weather balloon, it seems they must be floating a lot of these balloons lately to check the 'weather'.
Re: U.S. military shoots down suspected Chinese surveillance balloon
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
The trick is to shoot it down in a way it falls slowly so you can retrieve it and see what is in it, although, I suspect our intelligence agencies have a pretty good idea already. I have no idea of course, but one thing I thought would be a Stingray, at that altitude you could intercept thousands of cell calls. I doubt that's what it is but the other thing is if it has any radio jamming capabilities or other things o…
I doubt it was to get a day of cell phone intercepts since it would be far easier and stealthier for China simply send a Stingray-type device to one of their thousands of industrial espionage agents already operating in the U.S. to drive it around in a van in whatever area and time period they are targeting. In fact, I suspect they (and others) already do that. I think the purpose for sending the balloon was primaril…
The radar and RF on approach might make sense. I just don't see how a provocation test makes any sense though. It is hardly like America is not willing to use military force.
Really, a mistake on the part of China feels like the Occam's razor explanation to me.
It is just very hard to see the risk/reward calculation to do this intentionally with spy networks both on the ground and in space.