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Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

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Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#32
post #28

Some people bring a cult-like mentality to the discussion of diversity and related issues. Dissent is not welcome, unpleasant facts and observations explained away often in contrived ways. Why is it so hard to imagine that maybe there are meaningful group variations within the human species?

Why is it so hard to imagine that maybe there are meaningful group variations within the human species?

The worst things humans have ever done to each other have all centered around the notion of "meaningful group variations within the human species". Without hard science, it's a scary and dangerous place.

Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why is it a problem?

It's only a problem if you care about things like injustice, inefficiency, and wasted potential.

It's only wasted potential if you're sure that a career in technology is superior to any other career or goal in life.

That's certainly not true. I'd be curious to see the reaction of you telling a woman who is satisfied with her life that she's wasted her potential.

Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#34
post #10

I don't get this. Maybe it's because I'm a white male, but it still doesn't make sense to me. Why is there such a resistance to the idea that there might be differences in what groups of people are interested in at any given time? Not an issue of genetics or competence, but a complicated web of social influences that make people less likely to be interested in one path or the other? If there are truly unjust and disc…

What is more, the more barriers are removed the harder and more convoluted it gets to explain any such differences.

If we assume there aren't any differences between men and women, but speculate on what the world would look like with significant differences, what would the distributions be like (as compared to today).

On the reason why, I would say the level interest is very tied up with ability in any case. What is more innate ability probably causes interest. I don't think it is a scientific statement to say it is only a social phenomenon (or vica-versa).

Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#35
post #10

I don't get this. Maybe it's because I'm a white male, but it still doesn't make sense to me. Why is there such a resistance to the idea that there might be differences in what groups of people are interested in at any given time? Not an issue of genetics or competence, but a complicated web of social influences that make people less likely to be interested in one path or the other? If there are truly unjust and disc…

I have similar thoughts. But also, it bothers me that the imbalances in tech are considered to be somehow more pathological or worse than the imbalances that exist in all kinds of other professions. We seem to be the only profession flogging ourselves over this issue (I'm sure there are some others, but I doubt there are many).

Are people in nursing worried about the field underperforming as a whole because it has so many women?

Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#36
Edward de Bono once talked about how words become loaded with emotional connotations and value judgements to the point where it is hard to argue for or against certain positions.

Eg: You can make an argument for or against a mixture of two things in differing ratios, but the moment you use the words "balanced" and "unbalanced" to represent the two states, the it is harder to argue for the "unbalanced" side. Likewise for "core" vs "surface" (de Bono's example) Who would want to argue against balance, 'core', or in this case, "diversity"?(What are you, some kind of bigot?).

"Diversity" is automatically assumed to be a positive, before the argument on whether it is desirable begins, and there isn't a value neutral or value positive word that is its opposite.

Specifically in this post, there are plenty of value laden words - 'diversity', 'meritocracy' etc put together to slant in a particular direction. Not much solid argument or content there - the power of the argument comes instead from the values attached to the specific words used, which makes it a bit iffy - Martin is a gifted writer and clear thinker - this just isn't one of his better efforts.

[Due Disclosure: I know Martin from my days at ThoughtWorks. I respect him immensely and think he is a very impressive person, who has given me a lot of very useful advice on many occasions.]

Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#38

I hate to pick apart Fowler -- probably a good way for folks to call me an idiot -- but I have to. here are (roughly) 50% women in the world, so we should expect the ratio for women in computing to be 50% - unless there's real evidence that some other ratio is natural.[2] So far there's no such evidence. But, er, doesn't the observation that the actual ratio is different evidence constitute "evidence"? Aside from dir…

Is he arguing that since a certain type of rhetoric has been used to ill purpose in the past that it should be looked upon extra critically now? All rhetoric should be looked at critically, and there's nothing wrong with being extra critical of rhetoric that's historically dubious. What's your initial response to the phrase "separate but equal"?

...there's nothing wrong with being extra critical of rhetoric that's historically dubious.

Yes there is. It biases our thinking.

Here is a non-controversial example of this: "Millikan measured the charge on an electron...got an answer which we now know not to be quite right...It's interesting to look at the history of measurements of the charge of an electron, after Millikan. If you plot them as a function of time, you find that one is a little bit bigger than Millikan's, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, and the next one's a little bit bigger than that, until finally they settle down to a number which is higher.

Why didn't they discover the new number was higher right away? It's a thing that scientists are ashamed of - this history - because it's apparent that people did things like this: When they got a number that was too high above Millikan's, they thought something must be wrong - and they would look for and find a reason why something might be wrong. When they got a number close to Millikan's value they didn't look so hard. And so they eliminated the numbers that were too far off, and did other things like that..."

(The narrative comes from Richard Feynman.)

If we look on some hypothesis extra critically, and others only reasonably critically, we will bias our views towards the beliefs which we apply less scrutiny to.

(See also this discussion, where I defend a paper claiming to prove the existence of ESP: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2068699 )

Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#39
post #35
post #10

I don't get this. Maybe it's because I'm a white male, but it still doesn't make sense to me. Why is there such a resistance to the idea that there might be differences in what groups of people are interested in at any given time? Not an issue of genetics or competence, but a complicated web of social influences that make people less likely to be interested in one path or the other? If there are truly unjust and disc…

I have similar thoughts. But also, it bothers me that the imbalances in tech are considered to be somehow more pathological or worse than the imbalances that exist in all kinds of other professions. We seem to be the only profession flogging ourselves over this issue (I'm sure there are some others, but I doubt there are many). Are people in nursing worried about the field underperforming as a whole because it has so…

If we keep going with your excellent point, it's not hard to see a hypothetical argument for aiming to make everyone in the world equally interested in everything.

Proponents of this theory in tech jobs don't seem to understand this. They just see that if the numbers don't add up to a perfectly even split, there's something nefarious going on.

Re: Martin Fowler: The Fallacies and Reprocussions of Diversity Imbalance

#40

I hate to pick apart Fowler -- probably a good way for folks to call me an idiot -- but I have to. here are (roughly) 50% women in the world, so we should expect the ratio for women in computing to be 50% - unless there's real evidence that some other ratio is natural.[2] So far there's no such evidence. But, er, doesn't the observation that the actual ratio is different evidence constitute "evidence"? Aside from dir…

Not only does he make the logical fallacies you suggest, but he also ignores plenty of evidence that there might be natural causes: For instance, there is plenty of evidence women are less likely to be very good (or very bad) at math: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/321/5888/494.summary http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21038941 There is also evidence women are more risk averse, making them less likely to work in…

I was told I'd never be a programmer because I didn't get good marks in math and physics, that was sixteen years ago. Let's kill the myth.

I can't see any reason why being genuinely good at math is more important to effective programming than being good at chemistry (layers and sequence), biology (complex systems) or languages (building meaning from abstract or incomplete signals). You do not need to be good at late high-school math to understand Big-O.

I suspect people who are good at or passionate about math are far more likely to stroke their ego with premature optimisation.

Also, there's a vast difference between aptitude for maths, and performing well in maths tests. Attention to detail, regard for the education system, interest in the topic all play a part.

    > There is evidence women avoid computing because
    > they are intolerant of geeks
I see a different pattern that goes in mostly the reverse direction. Young men are a strange bunch, but young nerds in particular tend to act bizarrely towards women, and are therefore undesirable to be around. It can be more effort to deal with someone bizarre (has feelings but is draining) than someone who is just a bastard (quickly tell them to get stuffed). If you sense a concentration of draining people - avoid!
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