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Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

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Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#31

Post by robryan »

kenjackson wrote: post #20
moocow01 wrote: post #8

I think the shortage of software development skills really has to do with the lack of there being enough people who get impassioned with this kind of stuff. When I step out of my bubble I realize that its really difficult to find cultural-personality fits for what building software requires. Most people are just not like 'us' for better or worse. Most people don't get giddy over implementing a new algorithm or buildi…

I think the shortage of software development skills really has to do with the lack of there being enough people who get impassioned with this kind of stuff. I was at a party recently I was asking someone about their work. I was really interested in how they solved certain problems, etc... We were probably only talking a minute or so when she says, "Can we not talk about my job and ask me about my car or some great me…

Yeah lots of people don't want to talk much about their work outside of work. I think it comes down to whether someone is passionate about it or it is just a pay check. Of course some could love their work but just get sick of talking about it.

As you say I am interested in how other industries solve problems, particular how technology is being applied to help (or hinder) their workflow. Often people who work in other industries just accept workflow processes for how they are and aren't really interested in thinking about how they could be improved. Not that someone working at a big company really has the power to enact these kinds of changes but they are interesting to discuss.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#32

Post by robryan »

aiscott wrote: post #26
kenjackson wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the shortage of software development skills really has to do with the lack of there being enough people who get impassioned with this kind of stuff. I was at a party recently I was asking someone about their work. I was really interested in how they solved certain problems, etc... We were probably only talking a minute or so when she says, "Can we not talk about my job and ask me about my car or some great me…

I don't like talking about my job because it's so esoteric from most people's perspectives. I think a lot of people at least have some small idea about what programming is about. I'm a digital ASIC designer. Next to nobody you randomly meet has any clue what that is about. It actually sucks in a lot of ways because talking about work is an ice breaker, even for people that don't like talking about their work. For me,…

Having an unusual profession can be an ice breaker to, as long as you don't expect the other person to really grasp what you are doing day to day. I guess you can just simplify it to say you make device x work when a button is pressed or something depending on what you are actually designing.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#33

Post by matwood »

capkutay wrote: post #14
moocow01 wrote: post #8

I think the shortage of software development skills really has to do with the lack of there being enough people who get impassioned with this kind of stuff. When I step out of my bubble I realize that its really difficult to find cultural-personality fits for what building software requires. Most people are just not like 'us' for better or worse. Most people don't get giddy over implementing a new algorithm or buildi…

"When I step out of my bubble I realize that its really difficult to find cultural-personality fits for what building software requires." I absolutely agree with this statement. When programming, you'll always hit brick walls; times when you're stuck and feel like there's nothing you can do about it. That's when your genuine interest in programming and serious attention to detail must get you past the hurdles. It's n…

This is key. I solved a problem the other day and a non-programmer co-worker asked me how I knew the answer. I had to explain to him that I didn't know the answer and through research, thinking about the problem, and some good old trial and error I found the answer.

I think most people today think school is suppose to teach them F(x) so that they can just go out in the world and apply F(X) over and over and make a living. They are missing the point that they need to be creating F(x), G(x), etc...

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#34

Post by j45 »

Programming is as much an art as a science.

It's as much the ability to find the dots as it is being able to connect the dots to make a usable picture.

I think some of the more basic, entry level, spec-based maybe development could become available for the masses, but until we do a better job of training people to engage and develop both heir creative artist and creative scientist, I'm not sure.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#35

Post by ZoltonVonMises »

danso wrote: post #30
ZoltonVonMises wrote: post #22

I certainly hope it does not become the next mass profession. I don't understand people that want everyone to learn to code. Its simple supply and demand, friends. As the supply of coders goes up, demand for my services go down.

Maybe that would be the case in other professions...but as a coder, I would LOVE to have more people involved in it. I think programming is one of those areas in which a rising tide lifts all boats. I find that most of my time is either dumbing things down (i.e. printing the output of a relational database into a flat spreadsheet or worse, a PDF) for those who barely understand basic Excel or attempting to parse such…

I definitely understand. I'm just looking at it from a purely economical perspective. Sure, as the mass's technical prowess goes up, my ability to create cool things also goes up, but as the mass's technical prowess goes up, the earning potential in programming goes down.

Any time a resource becomes less scarce, it's value drops.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#36

Post by jcizzle »

I don't think programming in its current form will become similar to unskilled labor. The important part about the examples at the beginning of the article (construction, factory workers) is that there were engineers (smart experts) behind the innovation that simplified a task so that an unskilled laborer could do it.

Can programming become so dumbed down that anyone could do it? Sure, there are plenty of tools out there that are "App Makers" for whatever platform/genre you want. But are those tools churning out apps that make a company? I haven't seen one.

The thing about software is that it is a ton of small pieces put together to create something new and unique. Factory workers put together a ton of small pieces, but to create something that has already been invented. A car, for example, has a specification created by smart people and put together by unskilled workers and machines.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#37

Post by stevecooperorg »

Nitramp wrote: post #23

Citation missing, but I've read a paper that claimed rather convincingly that you need a certain mindset both to be good at programming and to enjoy programming (unsurprisingly, this comes hand in hand). It's not really problem solving, it's rather a specific kind of structured thinking. It's the attention to detail and the will to think through every aspect of an issue, to find a complete solution. That's also a use…

I agree with you: what we think of as 'pro' programming -- writing large programs in formal languages and running it past an interpreter/compiler -- is probably only something the few will really get into.

However, there's a couple of exceptions to this idea I'm not sure how to handle.

MS EXCEL : It's a programming experience, of a sort, and is incredibly popular. I think it uses similar skills to writing code, but is just much more 'gentle' on the brain. There's a programming nature in excel formulae;

    =SUM(A3:A14) / COUNT(A3:A14)
if you see what I mean...

BASIC : Back in the 80's, everyone and his dog had a go at BASIC programming. Most of my friends and their dads got their hands dirty typing in programs from magazines. It suggests that getting lots of people involved in simple languages might be feasible.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#38

Post by danso »

ZoltonVonMises wrote: post #35
danso wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe that would be the case in other professions...but as a coder, I would LOVE to have more people involved in it. I think programming is one of those areas in which a rising tide lifts all boats. I find that most of my time is either dumbing things down (i.e. printing the output of a relational database into a flat spreadsheet or worse, a PDF) for those who barely understand basic Excel or attempting to parse such…

I definitely understand. I'm just looking at it from a purely economical perspective. Sure, as the mass's technical prowess goes up, my ability to create cool things also goes up, but as the mass's technical prowess goes up, the earning potential in programming goes down. Any time a resource becomes less scarce, it's value drops.

Sure, though I'd argue that maybe you're too shortsighted. If you were one of the few literate people at the time of Gutenberg, you might have a good start on everyone else...yet if that kind of literacy ratio never improved within a generation, I'd argue that you might have ended up poorer. Especially if you had the hankering to be more than just a reader...few literate people means few reasons to write books/pamphlets.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#39

Post by crpatino »

zyb09 wrote: post #21
moocow01 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry but I have to completely disagree that someday all we will need is just coders. Code is just a way of getting a computer to do something specific. So what should a computer do? Usually a computer should do something identified as valuable. So who figures out what is valuable? Typically everyone else... business people, researchers, administrators, doctors, analysts, etc. Having just a bunch of coders would be e…

true, although the point I was making is that sooner or later fields like agriculture, energy, manufacturing, transportation, logistics and others will be completely automated and just require coders to operate. That leaves some other fields, but these are huge parts of the economy. That's not gonna happen tomorrow of course, but we'll gradually get towards is and coder demand is just increase steadily over time.

I do not think this is accurate either. Just because something is possible (and it is a big IF to say that it is possible to reach 100% automation, economy wide) does not mean that it will end up being that way.

Consider, let's say, manufacturing. We have pretty much nailed down the details of how to automate a factory. Still, we do not see that the world manufacturing has been dominated by the most technologically advanced countries. When you automate, you have to pay upfront for your robots (with a ROI measured in years). With human operators, you defer payment until after you have collected the benefits of their labor (in terms of finished product inventory, not revenue). Not that it has not been tried, car companies tried to pull it off in the 70's, because in the books it looks like the robot is an asset, while the payroll is a liability. But they all discovered the hard way that cash is king and have been struggling with imminent bankruptcy ever since.

Instead, the big powerhouses are less advanced countries with large pools of young workers and weak labor laws. There a manufacturer can get started with much less capital and pay as it goes, instead of building these huge, high-maintenance, illiquid capital investments. And when the market shifts (and it always does) they can retool an pivot much faster too.

Apply the same logic to economic activities where bussiness processes are not throughly documented or even understood (like crafts and professions), or those which depend on contingent uncontrollable factors (like agriculture), and you will see that the idea of a fully automated society is beyond human reach.

Maybe if we manage to build a super-intelligence to solve all these problems for us, we may have a chance, or maybe there are fundamental limits that just cannot be overcome. But in either case, as of today, I think this is more science-fiction than actual science.

Re: Could Coding Become the Next Mass Profession?

#40

Post by Stormbringer »

Nitramp wrote: post #23

Citation missing, but I've read a paper that claimed rather convincingly that you need a certain mindset both to be good at programming and to enjoy programming (unsurprisingly, this comes hand in hand). It's not really problem solving, it's rather a specific kind of structured thinking. It's the attention to detail and the will to think through every aspect of an issue, to find a complete solution. That's also a use…

Well, that may be true to an extent. The other day I was working with some code that was adequate for most purposes, but didn't meet my rigorous standards (hence: attention to detail and thinking through every aspect of the issue).

So I put on my "old age and treachery" hat, aka my puzzle solving hat, and came up with a better solution one that was:

shorter

simpler

more robust

The experienced programmers I know call this cheating, hence the "old age and treachery" (from "old age and treachery beat youth and beauty every time").

Smarts, puzzle solving and intelligence are all a critical part of that. And that's the thing that is the 10x multiplier that makes all your 'average' (median) programmers look distinctly below 'average' (mean).

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