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North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

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Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#31

Post by dontbenebby »

mikeyouse wrote: post #21
ransom1538 wrote: post #18

Quoted post unavailable.

They very likely already have that.. they’ve detonated >50kt nukes and have mobile ICBM launchers that have demonstrated rockets with thousands of miles of range. They could almost certainly detonate a nuclear weapon in Korea or Japan. I’d put even odds on a strike on Guam, but probably not quite capable of hitting Western US.

>they’ve detonated >50kt nukes

Are you sure? Didn't they also detonate a buncha TNT to make it look like a nuke blast once?

(A weird thing to lie about.)

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#32

Post by Dylan16807 »

dontbenebby wrote: post #29
krisoft wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The second tweet in the linked thread links to the paper which inspired them: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/201... > who insist on putting their code into the public domain You say that as if there is something wrong with that.

>You say that as if there is something wrong with that. So to be clear, you an arms control expert public domaining code that aids totalitarians like Putin and the North Koreans has... "nothing wrong with that"? Some domain specific knowledge was meant to be esoteric* and there are a variety of better licenses such as CC-non-commercial that allow peaceful uses of the code without allowing it to be used by literally a…

I do not feel bad about indirectly aiding them with well-after-the-fact missile trail detection. Why should I? Why should this be difficult to do?

It can be called "military" but it doesn't help with offenses and doesn't really help with defenses either.

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#33

Post by dontbenebby »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #32
dontbenebby wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>You say that as if there is something wrong with that. So to be clear, you an arms control expert public domaining code that aids totalitarians like Putin and the North Koreans has... "nothing wrong with that"? Some domain specific knowledge was meant to be esoteric* and there are a variety of better licenses such as CC-non-commercial that allow peaceful uses of the code without allowing it to be used by literally a…

I do not feel bad about indirectly aiding them with well-after-the-fact missile trail detection. Why should I? Why should this be difficult to do? It can be called "military" but it doesn't help with offenses and doesn't really help with defenses either.

>well-after-the-fact missile trail detection.

Sorry, I missed that bit, I thought this could also be used to detect incoming missiles.

I do not want my enemies to be able to detect incoming missiles.

Sorry for posting so angrily.

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#34

Post by jvm___ »

beardyw wrote: post #7

Is it possible someone could explain as if to a small child what data can be collected from GPS which shows this effect. I don't understand.

As you walk past a school you yell with your voice, your friend nearby knows what you sound like but he hears you differently because your voice also bounces off the school wall. He adjusts the sound based on what you should sound like, the leftover bit is the shape of the wall.

You can figure out if someone moved a brick (or launched a missile) because your voice changes when it reaches your friend and he needs to apply a new change to get your voice back.

We can see the signal changes the rocket causes to the ionosphere and know that it's happened.

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#35

Post by hamandcheese »

dontbenebby wrote: post #31
mikeyouse wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They very likely already have that.. they’ve detonated >50kt nukes and have mobile ICBM launchers that have demonstrated rockets with thousands of miles of range. They could almost certainly detonate a nuclear weapon in Korea or Japan. I’d put even odds on a strike on Guam, but probably not quite capable of hitting Western US.

>they’ve detonated >50kt nukes Are you sure? Didn't they also detonate a buncha TNT to make it look like a nuke blast once? (A weird thing to lie about.)

> A weird thing to lie about.

Having the world believe you have nukes is nearly as valuable as actually having them.

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#36

Post by vkou »

ransom1538 wrote: post #18

Quoted post unavailable.

Acquiring and developing nuclear weapons seems to be the most rational thing North Korea has done in a very long time.

Neither the Iraq nor Ukraine conflicts would have happened if they were nuclear states.

An armed society is a polite society, or so I've been told many, many times.

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#37

Post by cfraenkel »

hamandcheese wrote: post #35
dontbenebby wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>they’ve detonated >50kt nukes Are you sure? Didn't they also detonate a buncha TNT to make it look like a nuke blast once? (A weird thing to lie about.)

> A weird thing to lie about. Having the world believe you have nukes is nearly as valuable as actually having them.

More valuable, in any rational sense of the term. Having them without anyone believing that you have them is more or less useless. Their only purpose is deterrence (unless you have a death wish for your population, and there are easier methods available if that's your 'use case')

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#38

Post by kadoban »

dontbenebby wrote: post #33
Dylan16807 wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I do not feel bad about indirectly aiding them with well-after-the-fact missile trail detection. Why should I? Why should this be difficult to do? It can be called "military" but it doesn't help with offenses and doesn't really help with defenses either.

>well-after-the-fact missile trail detection. Sorry, I missed that bit, I thought this could also be used to detect incoming missiles. I do not want my enemies to be able to detect incoming missiles. Sorry for posting so angrily.

To do anything about incoming missiles, you'd need extremely low latency tracking, integrated into whatever system you're using anyway. Not sure exactly you'd be worried about even if this was near-real-time.

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#39

Post by rich_sasha »

jasonwatkinspdx wrote: post #22
ransom1538 wrote: post #18

Quoted post unavailable.

NK has a working ICBM with a nuclear warhead today. It's already done. The time to stop it was back in the 90s.

Do we know they can make warheads small enough to fit on ICBMs? I always understood that is quite difficult.

AFAICT we know they have blown up stationary nukes and shot out inert ballistic missiles.

Re: North Korean ICBM launch detected using GPS

#40

Post by swagasaurus-rex »

vkou wrote: post #36
ransom1538 wrote: post #18

Quoted post unavailable.

Acquiring and developing nuclear weapons seems to be the most rational thing North Korea has done in a very long time. Neither the Iraq nor Ukraine conflicts would have happened if they were nuclear states. An armed society is a polite society, or so I've been told many, many times.

Who helped North Korea acquire nuclear weapons? Was it a wise choice? Only time will tell.
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