Is this the year end factor ? Generally there is less recruitment towards end of the year (On top of the generally gloomy market)
Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
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Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
Had an interview a couple weeks ago which, unfortunately, didn't work out. Will do.
-- remember - it's a sales game - learn about how a sales funnel works - apply to your job search - X applications - turn into Y interviews for Z job --
Yep. I start a new job on Monday. Job hunting turns into a funnel quick - slow at the beginning, so you apply to everything - but at a certain point you start getting overwhelmed with interviews and you become more discriminating about what you allow into the beginning of the pipe.
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#33Important! If it is offline, please refer to this image until I get it back online: https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/ElMG6yee19KT.png?o=1
As the Dash frontend wasn't able to handle the traffic I have replaced the dynamic dashboard with static HTML, sorry for that. I will replace it with the real dashboard when I am able to handle the traffic.
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#34Is this the year end factor ? Generally there is less recruitment towards end of the year (On top of the generally gloomy market)
I don't think so, note how last year, there was still a small job post increase from middle of November until end of December.
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#35This is very, very disheartening. Finishing my degree in exactly 2 weeks.
My experience is that the degree doesn't matter that much if you have experience. So if you have no experience yet it might be tougher.
Hiring will probably pick up again next year, though. I hope you find something.
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#36In my area, COVID stats are updated by the local public health agency daily, but often deaths are only included in the death data a month after the death occurs. So the COVID death data is good only for dates that are about a month old. Is there any thing similar going on here? Is the data for the past few weeks of the plot [1] as reliable as the data in July?
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#37This is a great project! But I would caution against being quick to interpret these numbers until you actually accumulated many years of data and are able to compare it to other macro economic variables such as the unemployment rate or changes in wages. Right now, you only have a few months of data, and it might be the case that this just happens every few months and doesn't mean much.
That's the point of time series -- you need to accumulate them over long periods of time and then you start processing them to understand them better to see if they are leading/contemporary/trailing predictors of what you really care about -- in this case, the tech job market.
So keep it up! But also wait a bit before using it :)
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#38For me, the OP's interpretation is very questionable or at least hasty. The first reason that comes to mind is that there is less recruitment at the end of the year. Because in the above statistics (due to lack of data?) only the data within the year is possible, such rhythms are not recorded.
I talk to HR people from different companies (in Berlin) from time to time and they still complain about the lack of skilled workers. Lastly, there is an armada of economic institutes in Germany that do not foresee a "job market crash" either. Jobs are a lagging indicator and the German economy is still growing. Only next year will there be a slight recession.
P.S.: For a good statistical analysis, the data source should be mentioned (which website), different sources (e.g. different portals, different source). A data lake otherwise does not make much for an alarmist analysis.
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#39Important! If it is offline, please refer to this image until I get it back online: https://gcdnb.pbrd.co/images/ElMG6yee19KT.png?o=1
Re: Tell HN: The German job market is crashing
#40Interesting! Are you planning to keep recollecting data for the year 2023?
> the major job offer portal in Germany for over one year
I hope that's Linkedin. Because if it's another site like Monster, StepStone or similars, I'm afraid the data is probably garbage. I don't know a single engineer in Germany who uses anything but Linkedin (well, many engineers use niche job boards like remoteok, or directly use the company's career section... but no single one uses Monster/StepStone/Glassdoor, because they are total crap)
Edit: the data source seems to be stepstone.de. That's unfortunate. Is there any chance to run this against Linkedin for 2023? That would be awesome!
(https://github.com/petracarrion/job-market-analytics/commit/...)