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Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

nytimes.com

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Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#31

Post by newt0311 »

jhancock wrote: post #10
floozyspeak wrote: post #7

I bet he's gettin something on the side to basically step into the ring of fear here and fire the flare of "now's the time". I don't think people really dispute that now is the time. The problem is the view point. You basically have to put money in and swear not to look at it again until 2013. Because the day by day view of that investment is heart attack unfolding as the bad news isn't going away, the affects of the…

I mostly agree. You have two choices with buying American stocks now: 1 - play the day trade game and squeeze out margins as the market is wild from day to day 2 - play long, buy great deals and hold for years. The only people that can play option 1 well are serious traders that have tons of time, cash, and really know what they're doing (or just have dumb luck, but applies to anything you might do with money). The o…

Number 1 is idiotic. Historically, investors who hold shares for more than 6 months get 9 times the returns of investors who churn on a short term basis. Furthermore, there is no way to predict how stocks will behave in the short term. In the long term, we can be reasonably certain that they will appreciate. In the short term, we have no idea. Furthermore, if you are not an institutional investors, federal income taxes of ~35%, and stockbroker fees will absolutely obliterate you and if you are a institutional investor, you have too much money to be able to day trade. The only people who ever try #1 are the ones who have no clue what they are doing and usually end up broke. They need to read The Intelligent Investor by Graham.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#32

Post by newt0311 »

trevelyan wrote: post #19
floozyspeak wrote: post #7

I bet he's gettin something on the side to basically step into the ring of fear here and fire the flare of "now's the time". I don't think people really dispute that now is the time. The problem is the view point. You basically have to put money in and swear not to look at it again until 2013. Because the day by day view of that investment is heart attack unfolding as the bad news isn't going away, the affects of the…

I wouldn't buy equity or debt at this point. There are companies with massive equity holdings who have bought credit default swaps to hedge against various losses. The CDS market is worth around 800 trillion at this point. Most of these contracts will work out without causing problems. That being said, the last plunge came a day after the settlement of Fannie & Freddie for roughly 90 cents on the dollar. We do not kn…

Indeed 800 trillion is a big number. So big that I would check your sources if I were you.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#33

Post by avdempsey »

All respect to Buffet in his success and this op-ed's general message. But its simplicity reminds me of George Bush's call to "go shopping" after 9/11. Do you want to overcome fear and build America's future? Then entrepreneurs lets get building. If you don't have the self-esteem to invest in your own efforts (we need them now more than ever) then follow Buffet's advice and buy a slice of the companies that will rebuild America. If you have the chutzpah though, don't "go shopping," "get building."

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#34

Post by dmv »

richcollins wrote: post #29

Had you followed that advice after the Japanese crash of 1990, you would still be down almost 75%: http://finance.google.com/finance?q=^N225

He did not say 'buy an index fund'. In an average investing environment, the argument for buying the index and not individual stocks is sound. However, buying in this market -- and to take advantage of the blood on the street -- is the individual play. Many companies will not make it, or will not make it without massive restructuring, or with much lower market share. But for a value investor, some companies with real moats and real protection have now been priced (by the overall market) into value.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#35

Post by jumper »

ksvs wrote: post #3
haasted wrote: post #2

Short summary: "Time to talk up the market. I have already placed the money I wanted to place while it was down." :)

Not merely nasty, but false as well. He says explicitly that he hasn't finished buying.

Uh.... How does what he say prove what he will do? If he were being dishonest here, maybe he would be... I dunno, dishonest?

I personally have no idea what Buffett's really thinking, but maybe you left some points out of your argument there?

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#36

Post by dejb »

Buffet is undoubtedly a great investor. But I have a slight feeling that could be doing this more for altruistic reasons rather than personal profit. He might believe that he can inject enough confidence in the system by his reputation then maybe he can help improve things. Not necessarily by enough for his investements to pay off but to avoid a worse fate for the financial system. Remember the guy has committed to giving away most of his fortune already. Anyway it is just a theory, good luck to him either way.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#37

Post by dmv »

prakash wrote: post #13

A word of caution: Don't invest if you can't sleep soundly at night. Buffet can probably afford to lose a few billions here and there, but you probably can't.

From what I recall of the last analysis on this subject, I don't think he has 'a few billion' in his non-Berkshire holdings. The non-Berkshire holdings are basically the money he has accumulated since personally buying Berkshire Hathaway, with his fairly modest salary. He has often described that he could (and does) beat Berkshire's ROI as a small investor, which is why his non-Berkshire holdings are in the millions.

His billions, from where his net worth for Fortune are calculated, is the 30+% ownership of Berkshire Hathaway (market cap today, 180B). The rest is almost a rounding error -- except that's where all of his lifestyle expenses come from, beyond his $100K salary and misc. payments, as he doesn't sell (as far as I know) any of his BH and it does not yield a dividend.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#38

Post by ca98am79 »

prakash wrote: post #13

A word of caution: Don't invest if you can't sleep soundly at night. Buffet can probably afford to lose a few billions here and there, but you probably can't.

yeah but he is putting ALL of that billions into stocks (100%!), that is pretty damn aggressive for someone especially at his age. This is a huge aggressive move on his part, and if Warren Buffet - the richest guy in the world - is buying and thinks stocks are cheap, I personally would find it hard to sleep at night if I didn't do the same.

Re: Warren Buffett editorial in NYT: Buy American. I Am.

#39

Post by ca98am79 »

dejb wrote: post #36

Buffet is undoubtedly a great investor. But I have a slight feeling that could be doing this more for altruistic reasons rather than personal profit. He might believe that he can inject enough confidence in the system by his reputation then maybe he can help improve things. Not necessarily by enough for his investements to pay off but to avoid a worse fate for the financial system. Remember the guy has committed to g…

Dude - Buffet didn't become the richest person in the WORLD by being altruistic. Think about it.
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