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Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

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Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#31

Post by superduper2 »

billiam wrote: post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

> but it was in 1993, when my grad school professor Ilya Prizel pushed back against all the End of History BS and said Russia would eventually assert itself in the middle of Europe, if desperately. He was dead right.

I don’t know, it seems like great powers are prolonging the war in Ukraine’s favor right now.

> less institutional capacity

IR always bankrupts itself on trying to find gold in shithole countries.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#32

Post by landoftheice »

soledades wrote: post #26
hangonhn wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had just started reading Mearsheimer's book (The Tragedy of Great Power Politics). It's quite depressing to say the least. My plan is to finish it and then read a critique or a competing viewpoint. What would you recommend as a follow-up as a critique of Mearsheimer? Thanks in advance!

Timothy Snyder is a historian who has written on extensively on the history of Ukraine ( Bloodlands ) and Putin ( The Road to Unfreedom ). I'm not familiar with The Tragedy of Great Power Politics , but Dr. Snyder makes some strong counterpoints to the Mearsheimer way of thinking on Ukraine in this [1] podcast and others. He has also given a timely history on modern Ukraine [2], but I have not got around to listening…

No post body was provided.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#33

Post by eyelidlessness »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #24
eyelidlessness wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over the long term, though, it moves left. Opinions in 1800 were far further right than far-right of today. 1800 is a weird baseline to pick, but even so I’m skeptical.

1900 works too. I was omitting an explicit mention of slavery, but a woman’s right to vote might be a better base.

1900 is even weirder to be honest. The shorter your time scale the more debatable the shift. Since 1800, despite abolition of chattel slavery, slavery has been constitutionally protected as punishment for crimes and along with it came the carceral state. Since 1900 there have been many voting rights expansions, and a continuous program not just to curtail voting rights but to undermine the concept of the validity of elections themselves.

On a short enough scale, the trend line is probably what we’d call “leftward” today. But on a longer scale I don’t think that’s the case. Not that Marx would approve of this appropriation of his analysis (because it wouldn’t support his theory of progress either), but it was a “primitive communism” which came before feudalism and eventually capitalism.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#34

Post by pstuart »

eyelidlessness wrote: post #21
arise wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The window is bifurcating. The political left and right have moved so far apart that "middle ground" ideas appeal to very few and the extremes have more viability.

There basically is no political left to speak of and there hasn’t been one for decades. There is a bifurcation, but it’s largely a drift between a broadly rightward shift across political mainstreams on the one hand, and an increasingly contentious concept of who is allowed to exist and to what extent they can exist unperturbed.

The downvotes without refutation are a pity.

The Left is effectively absorbed by civil liberty issues (LGBQT+, abortion, and immigration come to mind). Those issues are worthy of support but they're pathetically easy to demonize by the Right.

And there's the fact that Trump broken countless political norms so the Left is still stuck in "the old ways" and has effectively brought a knife to a gun fight.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#35

Post by sdwr »

peatmoss wrote: post #20
arise wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The window is bifurcating. The political left and right have moved so far apart that "middle ground" ideas appeal to very few and the extremes have more viability.

Wedge issues have really split us irrationally. Group A tells scary bedtime stories to their children using caricatures of an average Group B position as a way to maintain in-group discipline. What seems to be new now, is that Group B has taken to espousing Group A's caricature as a way of proving their group identity. "Group A says we eat babies. I eat more babies than anyone else, proving my Group B bonafides!" If…

First time I've heard this, great point. (The baby eating thing, not ranked choice voting)

I think extremism is a sign things are bad, but haven't gotten worse. Like, normal communication has broken down, but nothing has escalated to the really scary place where everyone shuts up.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#36

Post by DanHulton »

superduper2 wrote: post #31
billiam wrote: post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

> but it was in 1993, when my grad school professor Ilya Prizel pushed back against all the End of History BS and said Russia would eventually assert itself in the middle of Europe, if desperately. He was dead right. I don’t know, it seems like great powers are prolonging the war in Ukraine’s favor right now. > less institutional capacity IR always bankrupts itself on trying to find gold in shithole countries.

"prolonging the war in Ukraine’s favor" is a phrase that sounds _very_ loaded, politically.

Would love to hear you explain a bit more what you mean by that.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#37

Post by int_19h »

billiam wrote: post #16

It never ceases to amaze me how experts at something can't resist trying to be experts at everything. His examples from political science are just so off, but I have to concentrate on his example of Mearsheimer. Far from being one step or two ahead of the crowd, Mearsheimer's problem has been that he's still standing back in the 1980s. His realpolitik approach was refreshing and appealing for the time whensomewhat ph…

I don't think it was inevitable for Russia to end up so firmly in the anti-West camp. Back in 1993 - and, really, all the way until the end of 90s - it was very much at the crossroads.

The mistake is claiming that the path it ended up choosing, it chose because of something the West did or didn't do. It was all about choices that people made - and back then, elections in Russia still meant something - in response to concerns at the time. Which were mostly domestic: economy, crime, terrorism (in Caucasian regions).

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#38

Post by lmm »

landoftheice wrote: post #32
soledades wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Timothy Snyder is a historian who has written on extensively on the history of Ukraine ( Bloodlands ) and Putin ( The Road to Unfreedom ). I'm not familiar with The Tragedy of Great Power Politics , but Dr. Snyder makes some strong counterpoints to the Mearsheimer way of thinking on Ukraine in this [1] podcast and others. He has also given a timely history on modern Ukraine [2], but I have not got around to listening…

Quoted post unavailable.

We tried appeasement back in the '30s, it didn't go so well. There are cases where the right thing is to fight to the last man is appropriate. I certainly hope we don't reach the point of western nations having to draft the likes of me and send us to defend Ukraine, but if it comes to that then it beats letting Russia take what they want. Once you start doing that there's no end to it.

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#39

Post by int_19h »

landoftheice wrote: post #32
soledades wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Timothy Snyder is a historian who has written on extensively on the history of Ukraine ( Bloodlands ) and Putin ( The Road to Unfreedom ). I'm not familiar with The Tragedy of Great Power Politics , but Dr. Snyder makes some strong counterpoints to the Mearsheimer way of thinking on Ukraine in this [1] podcast and others. He has also given a timely history on modern Ukraine [2], but I have not got around to listening…

Quoted post unavailable.

So far it looks more like Russia is self-destructing in Ukraine, so why would Ukrainians yield?

Re: Overton's window creates opportunities for the brave

#40

Post by AnimalMuppet »

landoftheice wrote: post #32
soledades wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Timothy Snyder is a historian who has written on extensively on the history of Ukraine ( Bloodlands ) and Putin ( The Road to Unfreedom ). I'm not familiar with The Tragedy of Great Power Politics , but Dr. Snyder makes some strong counterpoints to the Mearsheimer way of thinking on Ukraine in this [1] podcast and others. He has also given a timely history on modern Ukraine [2], but I have not got around to listening…

Quoted post unavailable.

Thus spoke Chamberlain.
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