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Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
31–40 of 51 posts
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#32I think the article (unintentionally) makes a better argument that these companies are trying to create megafires? It presents a bunch of startups, most about detecting forest fires earlier, coordinating faster fire department responses, preventing ignition sources, etc. Then it goes on to explain how Megafires are largely caused by a buildup of fuel because we extinguish every small fire and prevented people from do…
Most experts agree that 3 things are required to end megafires: Landscape management, community resilience and fast & aggressive suppression. It's a layered approach - similar to infosec models. No one layer is an effective solution. Some of the examples in the article are focused on suppression (since that is a bit easier to grasp) - but there are some really exciting examples that exist outside of that. BurnBot, fo…
firetech has been heavy on the 'suppression' here in California. Its step-children include aggressive surveillance, controlling the movement of people whether they own property or not, increase in fines and legal entanglements for those in fire-prone areas, and I would argue a fertile breeding ground for secretive behind-closed-doors deals regarding public information and public budgets.
ref: https://www.amazon.com/Scorched-Worth-Destruction-Government...
so what to do? Please support and develop public information within the spirit of the Law. California and the US has 'default to public' government data for hundreds of relevant layers. Please do not support "my keys, my data" portal gatekeeping by spatial information handlers for public data. Be explicit about the difference between 'public by default' layers and commercial value added layers. Please do not encourage "onboard AI for drones" without checks and balances for the content and filtering. Please build clear bounds between civilian matters and uniformed services matters -- "we are the Army Corps and we have this handled; please move along" is not an acceptable stance in 2022.
The tragic and catastrophic fires in the Western USA and elsewhere in the past five years are a very large challenge. Let's combine forces and synergize, defeat gatekeeping that is so common in government contracting, and 'secret by default' information handling (e.g. 30x30) so common in the armed forces.
Together we are stronger.
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#33I think the article (unintentionally) makes a better argument that these companies are trying to create megafires? It presents a bunch of startups, most about detecting forest fires earlier, coordinating faster fire department responses, preventing ignition sources, etc. Then it goes on to explain how Megafires are largely caused by a buildup of fuel because we extinguish every small fire and prevented people from do…
Most experts agree that 3 things are required to end megafires: Landscape management, community resilience and fast & aggressive suppression. It's a layered approach - similar to infosec models. No one layer is an effective solution. Some of the examples in the article are focused on suppression (since that is a bit easier to grasp) - but there are some really exciting examples that exist outside of that. BurnBot, fo…
What about prescriptive burns? Or is that part of landscape management?
Seems like figuring out how to do it right would be the best answer, as what happened recently in New Mexico for when it goes wrong: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-mexico-wildfire-prescribed-...
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#34I'm curious, with such giant swathes of forest being burnt off annually, and large contiguous chunks being burnt up, leaving only smaller contiguous areas; 1) given the average size of a megafire, how many more megafires can happen (assuming regrowth to current fuel levels takes 50 years) 2) what is the largest megafire that could still happen, given the forested area unburnt for at least 50 years The chronicle has a…
I think it's a false assumption that when something burns in a high severity fire, it returns to a healthy state afterwards. Historically, natural fire was low severity because it was high frequency, burning through once a decade (or even more frequently). This left large trees and soil intact, and so dense regrowth was limited, since there was still shade. With high severity fire, two things can happen. Trees can be…
I was in the Colorado Springs area following a very bad fire about a decade ago, a fire hot enough to scorch the soil and cause issues with regrowth later.
This was followed by a very wet fall, causing massive amounts of runoff, erosion, and mudslides, blocking culverts and drainages, flooding roads, etc. It started with a fire, but the damage and follow on effects continued long after it was extinguished.
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#35Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most experts agree that 3 things are required to end megafires: Landscape management, community resilience and fast & aggressive suppression. It's a layered approach - similar to infosec models. No one layer is an effective solution. Some of the examples in the article are focused on suppression (since that is a bit easier to grasp) - but there are some really exciting examples that exist outside of that. BurnBot, fo…
What about prescriptive burns? Or is that part of landscape management? Seems like figuring out how to do it right would be the best answer, as what happened recently in New Mexico for when it goes wrong: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-mexico-wildfire-prescribed-...
important tool for landscape management
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#36Such a beautiful article and really covers the root of the issue. I know we skim a lot of articles but this one really deserves to be read in full. The issue being that natural fires have been suppressed for so long that when they do burn there is so much fuel available that they get way hotter than is natural and end up sterilizing the soil so nothing grows for years. Prescribed burns and thinning are the answer to…
The problem is that we don't allow stuff to burn naturally, so the answer is we should mess with nature even more . Amazing how humans just can't let anything alone. In 100 years the whole planet will just be one giant bonsai.
We often can't, without displacing humans and damaging property.
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#37Such a beautiful article and really covers the root of the issue. I know we skim a lot of articles but this one really deserves to be read in full. The issue being that natural fires have been suppressed for so long that when they do burn there is so much fuel available that they get way hotter than is natural and end up sterilizing the soil so nothing grows for years. Prescribed burns and thinning are the answer to…
The problem is that we don't allow stuff to burn naturally, so the answer is we should mess with nature even more . Amazing how humans just can't let anything alone. In 100 years the whole planet will just be one giant bonsai.
If in 100 years the earth is a giant bonsai... wow, that sounds like a pretty amazing outcome given the other very likely alternatives. Honestly, it seems pretty unlikely that given the enormous human population and our incredible appetite to consume, that the earth will survive in any state we'd be happy with, without some pretty aggressive management.
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
I remember when we had the huge wildfires in the Santa Cruz mountains in the 80s, and they said if they did the same practices afterwards as they had prior, there would be similar fires in 40 years. I don't live there anymore, but what are the fire prospects in the Santa Cruz mountains? It's about exactly the time those forestry guys said fires would become a thing again as I am pretty sure nothing was changed, and t…
There was an enormous & destructive lightning fire in the Santa Cruz mountains in 2020 called the CZU complex: https://www.mercurynews.com/2022/08/16/two-years-later-czu-f...
I was looking at the California Wildfire History Map (https://projects.capradio.org/california-fire-history/#9.62/...) a while back and remember noting that the CZU fire was the first recorded burn for most of the affected area.
I am not sure how complete the map is, but I suspect that the GP means the fires (such as the 1985 Lexington fire) further east mapped in red? Of those, I think I only see two meaningfully overlapped by newer fires (2009 and 2016 Loma fires overlapping 1985 Lexington, 2020 Park within the footprint of the 1985 Finley fire).
Edit: looks like the Finley/Park fires are technically just east of the mountain range, at least per http://www.scmbc.org/map-of-bioregion.
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#39Such a beautiful article and really covers the root of the issue. I know we skim a lot of articles but this one really deserves to be read in full. The issue being that natural fires have been suppressed for so long that when they do burn there is so much fuel available that they get way hotter than is natural and end up sterilizing the soil so nothing grows for years. Prescribed burns and thinning are the answer to…
The problem is that we don't allow stuff to burn naturally, so the answer is we should mess with nature even more . Amazing how humans just can't let anything alone. In 100 years the whole planet will just be one giant bonsai.
Are you suggesting we depopulate the westen US then?
Re: Can we end megafires? These companies are trying to
#40Earlier quoted context omitted.
The problem is that we don't allow stuff to burn naturally, so the answer is we should mess with nature even more . Amazing how humans just can't let anything alone. In 100 years the whole planet will just be one giant bonsai.
If in 100 years the earth is a giant bonsai... wow, that sounds like a pretty amazing outcome given the other very likely alternatives. Honestly, it seems pretty unlikely that given the enormous human population and our incredible appetite to consume, that the earth will survive in any state we'd be happy with, without some pretty aggressive management.
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