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Tesla AI Day 2022

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Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#31

Post by esskay »

nixarn wrote: post #20
mhoad wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground. Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.

I look at that and I want a self driving car by Tesla. Did you see the rest of the presentation about their self-driving tech? This was amazing by this with the short time it's been in development, and the vision for this project is beyond anything that has been done with humanoid robots. Sure they might fail, but it's an exciting venture to follow.

It's pretty hard to get excited for self driving from Tesla. So many of Musk's claims (i.e almost all of them) have turned out to be complete bullshit. They're seemingly still years away from full autonomy, despite him constantly trying to make people think its coming any day now.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#32

Post by [deleted] »

martindbp wrote: post #28
addicted wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is super smart. He’s also a snake oil salesman. These are not contradictory statements. Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. He could have chosen other options. It looked like that was the direction he was going in. By trying to help people. But it’s clear at some point he realized he can make far more money claiming to do something than by actually doing something and dec…

> Unfortunately he chose his intelligence to enrich himself by fooling others. You make it sound like he's selling ads online or something, not building rockets and electric cars, self-driving software and now robots? Like, if you wanted to make as much money as possible and "fool" people as you say, doing a rocket company and a new car company at the same time, pouring all the $100m you earned from selling your prev…

[deleted]

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#34

Post by esskay »

foobiekr wrote: post #7
mhoad wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it was an embarrassingly janky piece of shit that looked like a slight breeze might send it to the ground. Nobody would first look at that and then want to get into a self driving car built by the same company.

I mean.. checking out twitter, there are just hundreds of people, at least, who were just blown away by this janky nonsense and the "fact" that tesla will "ship millions" of these this year "for $20k." There's some kind of mass delusion going on.

In reality its going to be 10+ years and it'll be more than 20k. Thats assuming they actually release it, they seem to be collecting a pretty large list of vaporware right now. Cybertruck and Semi for example which seem to be stuck in development hell.

They seem to have a real issue actually shipping. Partly because Elon is incapable of understanding realistic timeframes.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#35

Post by Veserv »

martindbp wrote: post #17
m00x wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla FSD isn't making billions. What are you on?

It is. Let's check by two measures: 1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access. 2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amoun…

The product Tesla has sold for money is incomplete with no credible projected date of completion as the general problem of L4/L5 driving has never been solved before. Any profit from pre-selling a solution to a never-before-solved problem which requires an unknown amount of future work to make work as advertised absolutely does not count as “making billions”.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#37

Post by Seanambers »

esskay wrote: post #34
foobiekr wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean.. checking out twitter, there are just hundreds of people, at least, who were just blown away by this janky nonsense and the "fact" that tesla will "ship millions" of these this year "for $20k." There's some kind of mass delusion going on.

In reality its going to be 10+ years and it'll be more than 20k. Thats assuming they actually release it, they seem to be collecting a pretty large list of vaporware right now. Cybertruck and Semi for example which seem to be stuck in development hell. They seem to have a real issue actually shipping. Partly because Elon is incapable of understanding realistic timeframes.

Unrealistic timeframes also has the benefit of getting the most out of people. But Elon is getting quite a bit of flak for the expectations it sets.

It sure will be interesting to see where FSD & Teslabot is in a couple of years. The pace of innovation is extremely high at Tesla and should make you wonder what Boston Dynamics, Waymo and others have been up to for all these years.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#38

Post by tonant »

ilaksh wrote: post #22
Mobius01 wrote: post #3

The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.

In a way. The motion was not spectacular like Boston Dynamics. But any walking robot especially at that height and size is a significant engineering achievement. And they have been working on it for months rather than years. And the system is entirely electric unlike Boston Dynamics. The last demo was a person in a suit. Your expectations were unrealistic if you are not impressed.

Similar robots are built every year in colleges around the globe by jr robotics teams. Walking robots have been around for 25 plus years. There was zero to be impressed about. Walking robots are to robotics as hello world is to programming.

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#39

Post by benj111 »

m00x wrote: post #14
Mobius01 wrote: post #3

The Tesla Robot was underwhelming. I appreciate the engineers on stage highlighting their work, but it all felt a generation behind Boston Dynamic’s efforts.

It was underwhelming, but it's to be expected for 1 year of work. This is also an electric motor robot vs pneumatic actuators from BD.

Why are electric motors better?

Excavators etc use hydrolics, presumably for a reason.

I suppose if you want dexterity? But then you'd lose load carrying?

Re: Tesla AI Day 2022

#40

Post by benj111 »

martindbp wrote: post #17
m00x wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla FSD isn't making billions. What are you on?

It is. Let's check by two measures: 1. 160k people have bought and recieved FSD Beta at somewhere between $5 and $15k (today's price). Let's say an average of $8k, that means $1.28 billion. More have bought it but are waiting to get access. 2. FSD take rate is estimated as of now to be around 7% of vehicles sold world-wide. At the current price of $15k and the estimated 1.4 million vehicles sold this year, that amoun…

technically that's still not billions.

It's still crazy to me that people are paying all this money now for a product that still isn't delivering the promises of 5 years ago though.

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