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X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

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Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#31

This is an largely vapid and meaningless prediction by someone who doesn't demonstrate anything but the most superficial knowledge of the microprocessor industry. Perhaps he knows something we don't, but as far as I can tell he's only extrapolating current market trends. Obviously Intel (once led by Andy Grove, author of "Only the Paranoid Survive") is aware of the threat posed by ARM. If someone could explain how In…

One thing that could work against them is their cost structure. Intel is used to throwing a thousand or so engineers on each design. Having so many designers means they can squeeze out every last MHz, but it also means they need big margins and large volumes to recoup their costs. The other big technical issue is the end of Dennard scaling. For most of the last three decades, scaling CMOS processes bought you three t…

One thing that could work against them is their cost structure. Intel is used to throwing a thousand or so engineers on each design.

Exactly. It's also not obvious that the mobile chip market will pay a premium for Intel-calibre fabs. If it won't, then the question becomes whether a TSMC-made Atom is better than a TSMC-made ARM.

It's also fairly common to have custom hardware added to SoCs. Is Intel prepared to open up their processes to that sort of thing?

Unfortunately we can't scale the threshold voltage willy-nilly like in the past because leakage power increases for lower threshold voltages and is now a significant contributor to total power.

This one cuts both ways though. With leakage dominating active power, within a given node, the fabrication process will be relatively more important than microarchitecture, which is a point in Intel's favour.

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#33
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that could work against them is their cost structure. Intel is used to throwing a thousand or so engineers on each design. Having so many designers means they can squeeze out every last MHz, but it also means they need big margins and large volumes to recoup their costs. The other big technical issue is the end of Dennard scaling. For most of the last three decades, scaling CMOS processes bought you three t…

One thing that could work against them is their cost structure. Intel is used to throwing a thousand or so engineers on each design. Exactly. It's also not obvious that the mobile chip market will pay a premium for Intel-calibre fabs. If it won't, then the question becomes whether a TSMC-made Atom is better than a TSMC-made ARM. It's also fairly common to have custom hardware added to SoCs. Is Intel prepared to open…

This one cuts both ways though. With leakage dominating active power, within a given node, the fabrication process will be relatively more important than microarchitecture, which is a point in Intel's favour.

This is kinda nitpicking, but I'm not sure leakage will ever dominate active power. We still have the ability to reduce leakage if we want, we just have to give up frequency for it. In the past we didn't have to play this trade-off but even now I don't think it ever makes sense to run your chip so fast that leakage is more than dynamic power.

I do agree that for any given node, Intel is still going to ahead of the rest. It'll be interesting to see how much this helps them.

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#34

This is an largely vapid and meaningless prediction by someone who doesn't demonstrate anything but the most superficial knowledge of the microprocessor industry. Perhaps he knows something we don't, but as far as I can tell he's only extrapolating current market trends. Obviously Intel (once led by Andy Grove, author of "Only the Paranoid Survive") is aware of the threat posed by ARM. If someone could explain how In…

Hello, I'm the author of this article. I do not have a degree in electrical or computer engineering. I'm merely stating the trends I've seen in the PC industry over the last few years. I am, however, a Software Engineer. I know that most of the perceived lag on a modern desktop is not due to the CPU, but inefficient I/O to the hard disk or network. One must only look at the iPad 2 too see that's very possible to make…

X86 fails miserably at lower power computing

x86 currently doesn't scale down to the level required for smartphones.

However, it is getting close in the tablet space. Estimates for the Tegra 3 are around 3-4W TDP[1], while the Cedar Trail Atoms are around 5.5W TDP. In early 2012 Intel will release their Medfield Atom chips, which will make the competition even more interesting.

[1] http://semiaccurate.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4169

[2] http://www.extremetech.com/computing/94184-early-cedar-trail...

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#35

This reads like a person who has been saying "RISC beats CISC" since the Apple-on-PowerPC days because of ideological opinions about elegance, and is looking for any excuse to re-express that viewpoint. Look, I still think microkernels are better than monolithic kernels, but you don't see me claiming Linux is doomed just because the L4 microkernel is running on 300 million mobile phones worldwide ( http://en.wikipedi…

X86 is not going away, I agree, but Intel can hardly exercise the kind of dominance they've enjoyed for the last several years when they're facing serious threats at both the low and high end. At the low end, ARM simply beats x86 for anything with a battery. Intel has already lost the phone and tablet markets, and laptops are highly likely to follow. At the high end, look at the http://top500.org/ . #1 is based on SP…

> what happens in HPC tends to filter down to servers

Is this conventional wisdom? How does a petaflop race affect app servers and databases? It seems like most traditional server workloads could get by without a single FPU. The only thing they have in common is IO. Are there many data centers using Infiniband? (Maybe there are I don't know.)

The Cell architecture is an evolutionary dead end. SPARC is no more of a threat to X86 now than before. GPUs may be the next big thing for HPC but its got a long way to go to get out of its niche in the server market. (That niche being... face detection for photo sharing sites? Black-Scholes? Help me out here.)

I mean, I agree with your overall point, but I think it's more likely that ARM will steal all the data center work before anything from the HPC world does. They are too focused on LINPACK.

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#36

I think in a lot of ways this is related to the relative overpowering of desktop computers for daily use. It's been true for years now that computers are highly overpowered for what they are typically used for. Quad core machine with a million gigs of ram for email and a web browser? Sure there are LOTS of good reasons for having legitimate CPU power, but a lot of times any random Ghz level processor is going to prov…

I disagree. A few years ago, what we had for high-end computers was practically equivalent what we currently hold in our pockets. It wasn't long ago I got my first dual core desktop but dual core CPUs in smartphones and tablets is now standard along with powerful GPUs and lots of RAM. And it's not enough. Every year, each device needs to be significantly more powerful than the last. The idea that we've reached some plateau of mobile computing power doesn't hold up to even recent history.

And that's the real problem for Intel. Mobile computing power is improving an incredible rate -- probably faster than anyone could have predicted -- and soon enough they'll reach a level where ARM and Intel are actually competing at the same level. We're not there yet but it's close. At that point we'll see if Intel has what it takes to stay in the game.

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#37
post #23

This is an largely vapid and meaningless prediction by someone who doesn't demonstrate anything but the most superficial knowledge of the microprocessor industry. Perhaps he knows something we don't, but as far as I can tell he's only extrapolating current market trends. Obviously Intel (once led by Andy Grove, author of "Only the Paranoid Survive") is aware of the threat posed by ARM. If someone could explain how In…

Also the beginning of "good enough" performance? In recent years client side software has not generated any new breakthroughs that require vast amount of computing power. Most opengl v2 + games look more or less the same, raytracing hasnt taken off inspite of intels best efforts and there are multiple solutions to do video decode in hardware. I think intel sorely needs something to come along that causes regular user…

The only thing I run with any regularity, that feels like it could use more raw horsepower is the Clang/LLVM static-analyzer.

Adding an SSD seemed to make no difference, but with luck, the software will get some love and speed up.

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#38

This is an largely vapid and meaningless prediction by someone who doesn't demonstrate anything but the most superficial knowledge of the microprocessor industry. Perhaps he knows something we don't, but as far as I can tell he's only extrapolating current market trends. Obviously Intel (once led by Andy Grove, author of "Only the Paranoid Survive") is aware of the threat posed by ARM. If someone could explain how In…

Hello, I'm the author of this article. I do not have a degree in electrical or computer engineering. I'm merely stating the trends I've seen in the PC industry over the last few years. I am, however, a Software Engineer. I know that most of the perceived lag on a modern desktop is not due to the CPU, but inefficient I/O to the hard disk or network. One must only look at the iPad 2 too see that's very possible to make…

I know that most of the perceived lag on a modern desktop is not due to the CPU, but inefficient I/O to the hard disk or network

Most perceived lag on a modern desktop comes from excessive abstraction which results in poor coding practices. You could certainly argue that IO bottlenecks or a lack of system resources will certainly have an impact but that impact wont be realized until the environment is somewhat saturated. A simple solution to the hard drive bottleneck is to throw a SATA3 SSD in there instead, or to give a system more RAM to boost disk caching, problem solved. On the other hand, no amount of system resources will alleviate a performance hit caused by shoddy coding. This is the reason that I refuse to use Google docs, the performance is about as good as Wordperfect on Windows 95 because of all the abstraction insanity.

One must only look at the iPad 2 too see that's very possible to make a fast computer with beautiful 60 FPS animations and snappy applications using only an 800 MHZ dual core ARM CPU.

The iPad 2 is about as powerful as my Pentium 4 was back in the early 2000s. Shrinking it down to that level is certainly an accomplishment but it's not worth the shock and awe that you present it to be. It's nice to have a device such as the iPad 2 to fill the time when you wish you had a computer but it is in no way a full desktop substitute.

Ironically, my iPad feels way faster than my Macbook Pro most of the time.

Your MacBook is a fundamentally different device than your iPad. They may feel similar but this is purely superficial, the underlying operations are vastly different. If your MacBook is that sluggish, it's either because you're using an Apple product or you've got a PEBKAC error.

You don't need to be an expert in the microprocessor industry to know that the CPU performance race is over

Yes you do. The CPU performance race has been over for the past 5 years but not for the reason you think it is. The CPU performance race is over because AMD choked and threw in the towel. In 2007 AMD's flagship Phenom processor was bested by Intel's then worst in class Core2Quad Q6600 in almost benchmark (if not every benchmark). In 2011 AMD's flagship octal core Bulldozer processor was beaten by a Intel's worst in class quad core i7 920 from 2 years ago which also had an added handicap of only having 2 of its 3 memory channels loaded with DIMMs. Don't blame AMD's failures on the market, or Intel, blame them on AMD.

The fact that the CPU performance race is over doesn't mean that Intel has won, it merely means that Intel is the only competitor since AMD is effectively now a non-contender. It also doesn't mean that there is room in the desktop market for ARM CPUs, or that desktop hardware manufacturers are suddenly going to start writing drivers for two completely different architectures.

While it is certainly true that ARM is gaining on Intel in the performance space, it is still a long long way behind and that gap is only going to get harder and harder to close as time goes on. This is going to be doubly difficult when ARM manufacturers try to catch up to Intel in the general purpose execution department. It's easy enough to say that ARM has a lead in performance per watt if you ignore all of the special hardware capabilities that Intel CPUs have which are mostly absent on ARM or if you forget that power consumption scales logarithmically with voltage and that voltage is necessary to maintain a higher frequency.

It's all about power consumption now, and X86 fails miserably at lower power computing. Unless you know something I don't.

I do know something you don't. Architectures aren't designed to scale infinitely in both directions on the power scale yet Intel still manages to operate dual core full featured processors in the 17 watt range that will still destroy any dual or quad core ARM processor that gets put up against it. Also, I'm not sure how you can justify your statement "it's all about power consumption" because for 95% of the desktop market heat is a non issue whereas a lack of performance certainly is. If you live in a datacenter the constant whine of fans and AC units can certainly get annoying but as I mentioned above, there are already low power solutions that can be had without reinventing the wheel.

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#39
post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One thing that could work against them is their cost structure. Intel is used to throwing a thousand or so engineers on each design. Exactly. It's also not obvious that the mobile chip market will pay a premium for Intel-calibre fabs. If it won't, then the question becomes whether a TSMC-made Atom is better than a TSMC-made ARM. It's also fairly common to have custom hardware added to SoCs. Is Intel prepared to open…

This one cuts both ways though. With leakage dominating active power, within a given node, the fabrication process will be relatively more important than microarchitecture, which is a point in Intel's favour. This is kinda nitpicking, but I'm not sure leakage will ever dominate active power. We still have the ability to reduce leakage if we want, we just have to give up frequency for it. In the past we didn't have to…

Leakage power is actually very significant part of the total power usage [1] and one of the bigger reasons why Intel developed the tri-gate technology [2].

Active power is the one that's related to the frequency (P ~= CV^2f). Leakage power will "leak" even if the transistor is not switching.

1. http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4215605/Leakage-powe... 2. http://realworldtech.com/page.cfm?ArticleID=RWT050511195446

Re: X86's Days as a Consumer Microarchitecture are Numbered

#40
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

X86 is not going away, I agree, but Intel can hardly exercise the kind of dominance they've enjoyed for the last several years when they're facing serious threats at both the low and high end. At the low end, ARM simply beats x86 for anything with a battery. Intel has already lost the phone and tablet markets, and laptops are highly likely to follow. At the high end, look at the http://top500.org/ . #1 is based on SP…

> what happens in HPC tends to filter down to servers Is this conventional wisdom? How does a petaflop race affect app servers and databases? It seems like most traditional server workloads could get by without a single FPU. The only thing they have in common is IO. Are there many data centers using Infiniband? (Maybe there are I don't know.) The Cell architecture is an evolutionary dead end. SPARC is no more of a th…

Are there many data centers using IB? Yes. SMP was common in HPC before it came down-market, likewise NUMA. Commodity processors have many features - vector instructions, specilative execution, SMT - first found in HPC. Power and cooling design at places liks Google and Facebook is heavily HPC-influenced as well. Certainly some things go the other way - e.g. Linux - but usually today's server design looks like last year's HPC design.

I'm not quite sure it's valid to write off SPARC as an architectural dead end when the current fastest computer in the world uses it, and the next crop of US competitors for that crown are all based on the Cell/BlueGene lineage. GPUs are also more broadly applicable than you might think. Besides video and audio processing, they can be used for many crypto-related tasks (witness their popularity for Bitcoin mining), various kinds of math relevant to data storage (e.g erasure codes or hashes for dedup), and so on. Many of their architectural features are also being copied by more general-purpose processors as core counts increase, as well.

Yes, high-end HPC is too obsessed with LINPACK. Nonetheless, it remains a good place to look when trying to predict the future of commodity servers. Even if ARM does displace x86 instead, many features besides the ISA are likely to come from HPC. Perhaps more relevantly, either outcome is still very bad for Intel.

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