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One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

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Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#31

Post by andybak »

eimrine wrote: post #17
n4r9 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not talking about the hash function being hacked, I'm talking about websites like Coinbase that provide wallet and exchange services being hacked. Banks of course are also vulnerable to social engineering etc but there is more regulation and consumer protection for when that happens. And by "scammed" I mean someone providing a fraudulent or faulty service or product. In the UK we have "Section 75" which protects…

> I'm not talking about the hash function being hacked, I'm talking about websites like Coinbase that provide wallet and exchange services being hacked. What part of Bitcoin whitepaper tells you have to rely on third-parties? I'm not a trader, I'm a hodler, I even do not have a Coinbase account. Of course if third-parties get lost you lose everything you have believed they will guard for you. upd after reading respon…

When I held crypto, I used a 3rd party.

Why?

Because they are more trustworthy than my own ability to not screw up. I lose/break things all the time. I didn't want a fragile token or backup costing me 5 figures.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#32

Post by thraxil »

eimrine wrote: post #17
n4r9 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not talking about the hash function being hacked, I'm talking about websites like Coinbase that provide wallet and exchange services being hacked. Banks of course are also vulnerable to social engineering etc but there is more regulation and consumer protection for when that happens. And by "scammed" I mean someone providing a fraudulent or faulty service or product. In the UK we have "Section 75" which protects…

> I'm not talking about the hash function being hacked, I'm talking about websites like Coinbase that provide wallet and exchange services being hacked. What part of Bitcoin whitepaper tells you have to rely on third-parties? I'm not a trader, I'm a hodler, I even do not have a Coinbase account. Of course if third-parties get lost you lose everything you have believed they will guard for you. upd after reading respon…

Remember that the comment started with "My best guess at why the average person is hesitant to use bitcoin".

The "average person" needs something roughly equivalent to a current bank or credit card in terms of simplicity. Currently, that basically means using third-parties like Coinbase, not reading the Bitcoin whitepaper, managing their own hardware wallets and encryption keys, thinking through backups and disaster recovery scenarios, and being dilligent about maintaining opsec.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#33

Post by spreeker »

FIAT has proven time and time again to fail. Dollar world trade is unfair and benefits the USA unfairly.

I would prefer a neutral crypto currency to be the new world reserve instead of a competing currency like the YUAN. Government should not have the power to print money out of thin air.

The technology of blockchains is improving, for the example lightning network should make it very well possible. Just like with the invention of 'real' money there is a lot of failure in the crypto space.

The subject of money and currencies is a much more complex issue. A government giving its "printing power" or in the case of Elsalvador, no longer wanting to be the victim of the printing power of the USA, is a very good thing.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#34

Post by jollybean »

Kathula wrote: post #19
croon wrote: post #11

It's not a failure because Bitcoin tanked (relatively), it's a failure because Bitcoin tanking was and will always be a significant risk. People who got rich from Bitcoin weren't savvy, they won the lottery. It's not a sound investment decision based on outcome. Investments are sound based on probability and risk beforehand. El Salvador gambled which is stupid. Whether they won or lost at the lottery is inconsequenti…

It isn't lucky to hold through multiple multi-year 80% drawdowns, it's called doing research and having a conviction. I didn't sell at 60k, I'm not selling now, because I have a strong conviction. You call this lucky, but it isn't. If you have a conviction and a span longer than four years you could get "lucky" too.

Your 'convictions' will not help you predict where a herd of cows will move or stampede. And that's all BTC is. Whatever a crew of people believe it will be worth. Other currencies are integrated into the economy, which gives them a baseline value from which valuation isn't going to go to far away from.

Moreover, the entire philosophy of holding BTC as some store of value destroys the notion of BTC as a viable currency.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#35

Post by ceejayoz »

donatj wrote: post #27
croon wrote: post #11

It's not a failure because Bitcoin tanked (relatively), it's a failure because Bitcoin tanking was and will always be a significant risk. People who got rich from Bitcoin weren't savvy, they won the lottery. It's not a sound investment decision based on outcome. Investments are sound based on probability and risk beforehand. El Salvador gambled which is stupid. Whether they won or lost at the lottery is inconsequenti…

Have you seen the dollar’s buying power recently? I went from living very comfortably to living paycheck-to-paycheck in about 6 months. Holding my value in USD has become a significant risk.

Now imagine you had half as much USD for your groceries, because you decided to put it in BTC a year ago instead.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#36

Post by simple-thoughts »

Prediction: El Salvador will look genius in the next Bitcoin cycle. Other emerging market central banks will proceed to copy their model creating the next cycle’s peak. Once they stop buying, the market will crash again creating either a global depression or a bailout of the btc economy by USG, causing a repeat of the bank bailout that spawned btc in the first place.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#37

Post by asah »

dilap wrote: post #18

Bram Cohen had an interesting twitter thread on this https://twitter.com/bramcohen/status/1567173122289442824

tl;dr: you can have big positive impact but 'fail' financially.

The inverse is also true: you can have little impact but attain big wealth/success.

Moreover, due to competitive pressures this lack of correlation happens is quite common. If impact requires a mix of skill+luck+timing and success requires skill+luck+timing, then impact+success is (mathematically speaking) exponentially harder.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#38

Post by asah »

spreeker wrote: post #33

FIAT has proven time and time again to fail. Dollar world trade is unfair and benefits the USA unfairly. I would prefer a neutral crypto currency to be the new world reserve instead of a competing currency like the YUAN. Government should not have the power to print money out of thin air. The technology of blockchains is improving, for the example lightning network should make it very well possible. Just like with th…

Plus, fiat is too new to tell - it's only been 5,000 years! /s

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#39

Post by warinukraine »

Kathula wrote: post #19
croon wrote: post #11

It's not a failure because Bitcoin tanked (relatively), it's a failure because Bitcoin tanking was and will always be a significant risk. People who got rich from Bitcoin weren't savvy, they won the lottery. It's not a sound investment decision based on outcome. Investments are sound based on probability and risk beforehand. El Salvador gambled which is stupid. Whether they won or lost at the lottery is inconsequenti…

It isn't lucky to hold through multiple multi-year 80% drawdowns, it's called doing research and having a conviction. I didn't sell at 60k, I'm not selling now, because I have a strong conviction. You call this lucky, but it isn't. If you have a conviction and a span longer than four years you could get "lucky" too.

No post body was provided.

Re: One year on, El Salvador’s Bitcoin experiment has proven a failure

#40

Post by smcl »

simple-thoughts wrote: post #36

Prediction: El Salvador will look genius in the next Bitcoin cycle. Other emerging market central banks will proceed to copy their model creating the next cycle’s peak. Once they stop buying, the market will crash again creating either a global depression or a bailout of the btc economy by USG, causing a repeat of the bank bailout that spawned btc in the first place.

I admire your optimism, but I can't get on board. It would be naive to deny the growth of cryptocurrencies over the last few years, but it seems like the people who were meant to make money have since cashed out, that everything's peaked and turned a corner and the general public have turned against it (due in no small part to a few many shitcoins, rugpulls, scams, BAYC, and a couple of defunct exchanges). I'm sure crypto will live on in some form, but it won't explode again like it did before. I don't know who is left to fuel the next bubble.
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