EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted • Hacker News Board

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#31

Post by RosanaAnaDana » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:12 AM UTC

Swizec wrote: post #17

guidedlight wrote: post #8

Given EV’s should have price parity with ICE by 2025-2027, I think its obvious that EV adoption should accelerate. Unless you are purchasing a very cheap sub-$20k car, EV’s should become the only choice by 2030. https://insideevs.com/news/506465/evs-price-parity-europe-20...

Buying a car right now feels like a tough decision. ICEs are on their way out, even illegal pretty soon, but EVs aren’t quite there yet especially if you live in the city and can’t charge at home. Probably best to wait ~5 years then buy an EV, if you can wait.

Eh, EV's are there. The older models like my 2012 leaf arent. But everything new is. The bigger issue is infrastructure. Leaving it to the market to put in charging has been a disaster. I can't relate or understand the 'city' argument (if you live in a city, get a bus pass), but for home charging, so long as you've got a commute or two of range, you can either charge at work parking or at home, mix mox.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#32

Post by hn_throwaway_99 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:12 AM UTC

crooked-v wrote: post #10

I suspect it would be even faster if there was a charging option for the many people in cities with their cars in shared garages, even one as simple as just having a lot of 240V outlets. It feels like something that's rather overlooked at the moment.

Agreed, but I think this is likely going to be a "tipping point" type of change. That is, overall EV share is still relatively low, but very soon not having charging at apartment buildings will be a non-starter. I'd easily bet that in 5 years you'll see new condo/apartment developments where every space has a charging option.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#33

Post by rootusrootus » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:13 AM UTC

AmericanChopper wrote: post #11

guidedlight wrote: post #8

Given EV’s should have price parity with ICE by 2025-2027, I think its obvious that EV adoption should accelerate. Unless you are purchasing a very cheap sub-$20k car, EV’s should become the only choice by 2030. https://insideevs.com/news/506465/evs-price-parity-europe-20...

Give me a decent un-networked EV and I’ll buy it immediately. Until then I’ll keep my ICE vehicle. Which will probably be until they’re eventually banned, because I don’t think a decent un-networked EV is ever going to exist.

Un-networked? My wife's Bolt just has OnStar, which has nothing to do with it being an EV -- all GM vehicles have come with OnStar for years now. Pretty easy to disable it, too.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#34

Post by rocket_surgeron » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:14 AM UTC

throw7 wrote: post #16

"Many of us don’t need detailed analysis to understand this. We can see it on our neighborhood streets" I live in an apartment complex. Zero EVs. I suppose you are correct; I never considered myself as part of the "Many of us" moniker.

In countries and US states taking the fate of humanity seriously they are either preparing to fund or have already funded public/semi-public EV charging infrastructure upgrades.

However, with a little planning it is possible to own an EV even if you live in an apartment where there is no charging infrastructure.

The average American drives 39 (let's call it 40) miles per day. The Hyundai Ioniq 5 has a 303 (let's call it 300) mile range.

That's 7.5 days of driving on a full battery, but most people will get freaked out about having a low battery (despite driving around with their gas light on) so you just have to spend 15-45 minutes every 4 days at a DC fast charger and you'll never have a battery below 50%.

Going out? Go out somewhere with a DC fast charger. There are tens of thousands of them and that number has been increasing by about 25% per year for the last two years.

So EVs in an apartment is a pain in the ass but manageable.

In a couple of years apartments are going encountering friction while attracting renters, destinations will have friction attracting visitors, and offices will have friction attracting employees unless there are accessible charging options so I suspect the public EV charging situation will improve rapidly.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#35

Post by rgmerk » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:14 AM UTC

throw7 wrote: post #16

"Many of us don’t need detailed analysis to understand this. We can see it on our neighborhood streets" I live in an apartment complex. Zero EVs. I suppose you are correct; I never considered myself as part of the "Many of us" moniker.

If you’re living in an outer burb, maybe. In wealthier neighbourhoods and closer to city centres Teslas and to a lesser extent other EVs are everywhere.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#36

Post by DennisP » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:14 AM UTC

oaththrowaway wrote: post #18

I love the idea of an EV, but I hate how unfriendly they are towards self-repair and I don't want my car connected to the internet. Also an EV has more battery capacity than my house so it'd be pretty hard to charge a car in the winter when I can barely keep my house batteries running my house.

If you don't mind a super-aerodynamic lightweight three-wheeler, Aptera has a strong commitment to right-to-repair. They're making parts and manuals available to anyone.

https://aptera.us/right-to-repair-commitment-feat-rich-rebui...

https://cleantechnica.com/2021/11/19/a-recent-aptera-video-g...

They also get significantly more miles/kWh than most electrics, so the charging problem's easier.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#37

Post by zdragnar » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:14 AM UTC

throwaway5959 wrote: post #12

guidedlight wrote: post #8

Given EV’s should have price parity with ICE by 2025-2027, I think its obvious that EV adoption should accelerate. Unless you are purchasing a very cheap sub-$20k car, EV’s should become the only choice by 2030. https://insideevs.com/news/506465/evs-price-parity-europe-20...

The only logical choice. Some people particularly in the Midwest and South won’t switch until they absolutely have to, TCO be damned.

There's little public charging infrastructure here in the upper Midwest as of yet, which is a significant barrier for many.

What worries me if what happens when manufacturers abandon battery platforms. There have been a few stories lately of older cars- the Chevy volt comes to mind- where the batteries aren't made anymore, and replacing one is in the $20-30k, several times over what the car actually sells for.

Instead, it'd be nice if the battery packs were built in a modularized way, so that if one section dies, it can be replaced rather than the entire pack.

Otherwise, buying a used EV is a massive gamble for lower class folk who typically only buy used cars.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#38

Post by bilsbie » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:15 AM UTC

I definitely prefer to have an ice vehicle for range and privacy reasons. But I have this irrational hatred of oil changes. For me that seems like the biggest bonus of an EV.

Edit: I guess I don’t like the idea that ordinary procrastination can, in this case destroy a 50k investment.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#39

Post by rootusrootus » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:15 AM UTC

Swizec wrote: post #17

guidedlight wrote: post #8

Given EV’s should have price parity with ICE by 2025-2027, I think its obvious that EV adoption should accelerate. Unless you are purchasing a very cheap sub-$20k car, EV’s should become the only choice by 2030. https://insideevs.com/news/506465/evs-price-parity-europe-20...

Buying a car right now feels like a tough decision. ICEs are on their way out, even illegal pretty soon, but EVs aren’t quite there yet especially if you live in the city and can’t charge at home. Probably best to wait ~5 years then buy an EV, if you can wait.

Owning my own house, I will say that I'd happily never buy another ICE car. Charging at home is so much better than waiting in line at the gas station every week. The performance is excellent. In basically all ways that don't involve absurdly long road trips, the EV is the better choice.

But price. That's the killer right now. They're popular, batteries are expensive. I may actually go back to a PHEV for my next car even after I swore I'd never own a non-EV again because I'm hooked. Because the price difference is 20 grand, and the EV will never save me 20 grand over its life compared to a good PHEV. I'm a bit miffed about the whole thing, to be honest. Prices are insane for everything. I need a raise, clearly.

Re: EV adoption in US is happening faster than predicted

#40

Post by hn_throwaway_99 » Mon, Sep 05, 2022, 1:18 AM UTC

oaththrowaway wrote: post #18

I love the idea of an EV, but I hate how unfriendly they are towards self-repair and I don't want my car connected to the internet. Also an EV has more battery capacity than my house so it'd be pretty hard to charge a car in the winter when I can barely keep my house batteries running my house.

> Also an EV has more battery capacity than my house so it'd be pretty hard to charge a car in the winter when I can barely keep my house batteries running my house.

Not sure if you're just talking about something specific to your house, or making a broader point.

Once EVs are widespread, they can add a huge amount of storage capacity to the grid. Not hard to imagine utility and government incentives that encourage car owners to make some of their battery power available at peak load times.