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Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

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Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#31

Post by matthewdgreen »

musha68k wrote: post #9
NDizzle wrote: post #2

It's easy to pivot to "the aftermath of war", but plenty, PLENTY of people and organizations pointed out that reliance on imported energy, especially from Russia, was not a great idea.

It’s also that these interdependencies guarantee peace to some extent. The current dynamic is the most dangerous since WWII, much more complex than the Cold War actually.

The cold war was horrifyingly dangerous, with flights of nuclear-armed bombers routinely scrambling. Dr. Strangelove wasn't fiction: even a single rogue or confused crew could easily have started a world war. The current dynamic is also terrible, but both sides seem pretty determined to avoid a nuclear conflict (which is the main existential risk here, since Russia no longer seems likely to invade other European countries.)

Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#32

Post by not-my-account »

tmikaeld wrote: post #23
zppln wrote: post #3

Things are looking pretty brutal in southern Sweden for the coming winter. I have some acquaintances who are on thermal and who usually get pretty steep bills in December and January and they ain't just looking at a 7% increase that's for sure...

I'm in region 4, normally we have around 1600KwH in the worst winter month (small house, 2 air pumps). If prices rise 5x as is expected, we're looking at ~8000€ for a single month. (1€/KwH x 5)

Perhaps a dumb question, but do many houses have chimneys? Would burning wood ameliorate the problem?

Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#33

Post by tenpies »

NDizzle wrote: post #2

It's easy to pivot to "the aftermath of war", but plenty, PLENTY of people and organizations pointed out that reliance on imported energy, especially from Russia, was not a great idea.

I actually went back and looked at US Presidents warning Europe about this.

Trump famously did and the Germans laughed at him for it.

Obama and Biden (both as VP and now as President) did.

Even as far back as George Bush: he warned them, although it was presented more as a trade matter since it would have been beneficial for the energy industry and this was pre-fracking revolution.

It has been a choir of warnings for decades, but the hubris of European technocrats wouldn't let them see reality.

Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#34

Post by jhoechtl »

zasdffaa wrote: post #13
michaelbrooks wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the UK, we had a 57% increase in energy bills from July, and we're now looking at another 80% increase from October which is terrifying for a lot of us.

In the UK we have standing charges on meters. These are fixed charges regardless of how much energy you use. You pay extra on top for your energy. I use very, very little gas. Currently my standing charge is about 4 times the cost of the (tiny amount of) gas I use, at least. To avoid the gas standing charge I'd have to remove the meter, physically. Not my property, can't do it. So I have to pay. Funny system.

I think this system is commonplace. In Austria to say at least.

Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#35

Post by FartyMcFarter »

VoodooJuJu wrote: post #20

Shoulda woulda coulda aside, what does this mean going forward? For people who can't afford fuel - what will happen? Will they just not heat their home? Stock up on some proper animal hair clothing and blankets? What about their plumbing, frozen pipes?

Most governments are providing some sort of monetary help, so, I suspect:

- some people will be mostly unaffected;

- others will not be able to heat their houses as much, e.g. they'll only be able to heat up a couple of rooms to a lower temperature than usual;

- a bunch of people will decide to live together (e.g. parents and kids) to save money;

- some will not be able to pay their bills - energy companies will have to decide how to handle this;

- DIY home insulation will become more popular;

- wearing more clothes in winter will become popular again.

The impact on businesses is much harder to predict - I could see a lot of trouble coming in that area too.

Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#36

Post by jhoechtl »

tenpies wrote: post #33
NDizzle wrote: post #2

It's easy to pivot to "the aftermath of war", but plenty, PLENTY of people and organizations pointed out that reliance on imported energy, especially from Russia, was not a great idea.

I actually went back and looked at US Presidents warning Europe about this. Trump famously did and the Germans laughed at him for it. Obama and Biden (both as VP and now as President) did. Even as far back as George Bush: he warned them, although it was presented more as a trade matter since it would have been beneficial for the energy industry and this was pre-fracking revolution. It has been a choir of warnings for…

So it was actually a shot in the dark? When was the Bush administration in place?

Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#37

Post by jhoechtl »

ocschwar wrote: post #28
MerelyMortal wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've learned that war can disrupt the flow of energy. For renewable energies in the U.S., would the U.S. be considered reliant on places like China for the batteries, wind turbines, solar panels, etc?

Turbine manufacturers are predominantly Danish (Vestas), German, (Siemens), USA (GE) and Spain (Iberdrola.) I don't have much of a problem with being dependent on energy cooperation from countries that happen to be my military allies. Moreover, turbine part transportation is such a logistical challenge that manufacturers are always trying to set up assembly facilities near their customers. All four of those companies…

Renewable energy requires IC controllers and electronics all coming from China.

Parts are assembled where you mentioned which crucial parts sourced.

Re: Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War

#38

Post by selectodude »

tmikaeld wrote: post #23
zppln wrote: post #3

Things are looking pretty brutal in southern Sweden for the coming winter. I have some acquaintances who are on thermal and who usually get pretty steep bills in December and January and they ain't just looking at a 7% increase that's for sure...

I'm in region 4, normally we have around 1600KwH in the worst winter month (small house, 2 air pumps). If prices rise 5x as is expected, we're looking at ~8000€ for a single month. (1€/KwH x 5)

You pay €1600/mo normally?! Holy crap!
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