Earlier quoted context omitted.
Compromises are 99% of those I see (similar setup) - the last 1% is acquired companies that have pivoted/do something else. It's not quite spam, it's not quite illegitimate, but it's not what I signed up for.
I've seen a shift. Between 2005-2010, I used [company]@[mydomain.com], and I noticed that I would get spam in the form of [gibberish]@[mydomain.com], presumably from spammers who were just targeting email addresses with a catch-call filter. In fact, around that time, my hosting provider, Dreamhost, started restricting email catch-alls to deal with this problem. But then from around 2010 onward, that type of spam beca…
And that may have dropped off because there was a concerted effort to make it harder to do that around then. In particular, that's kind of what killed qmail as an in-vogue MTA, because it wasn't being updated and you had to use awkward patches to stop backscatter.