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VCs are scared when they should be greedy

blog.aaronkharris.com

31–40 of 255 posts

Re: VCs are scared when they should be greedy

#31

Rather than complain about how VCs arent good investors, people should rail on the system that selects VCs. Which is mostly admittance to prestigious MBA programs/colleges. So please write a post about how those schools arent selecting for good investors, because these diatribes about a "flawed" industry are very surface level compared to the underpinning power structures in america

Central planners 2.0, welcome to the soviet union.

Re: VCs are scared when they should be greedy

#32
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In a recession some people suddenly are eager for any job, no matter how bad, driving down Uber's "cost of goods sold" i.e. driver fees.. But in general economic downturns are tricky, as they affect different groups differently - are the people who would suffer in a recession the same people who are currently using Uber?

Driver fees are already so low that between depreciation, gas, and your time, you're barely making ends meet driving. They can't squeeze the drivers any further, unless they only want people to be driving 15-year-old beaters.

Boy, this is an evergreen narrative on HN, but I don't really think it's true. The total all-in cost of a Prius (depreciation, maintenance, gasoline, etc...) is about 30 cents per mile. Uber drivers make about $1-$2 per mile which is a pretty big margin.

Uber has been around for over 10 years now. Sure, not everyone is an accountant, but if Uber drained every driver's wallet, they'd have noticed by now. Interesting that it's usually only people who have never driven for Uber that claim it's completely unprofitable.

Re: VCs are scared when they should be greedy

#33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think tech investors are unable to see their bias for just how awful most tech companies today are I agree. Ecomm broke first in other markets, and I am seeing profitable ecomm companies still having to raise capital. Uber is one of the worst ones (they took a business that is very profitable, and lost absolutely staggering amounts of money, they probably need to cut 50% of the workforce to start with, and then k…

I agree, crypto and fintech will be the first dominos to fall - they’re in free fall already. There’s a lot of copycat B2B startups that extremely dependent on crypto and fintech for their revenue. They will be the next domino to fall. After that, it would be infrastructure, security, and analytics vendors that will face a revenue crunch and will be unable to raise another round of funding. And then, all the startups…

> the final domino would be currently well funded private companies such as Airtable, Notion, Loom, and possibly even Figma

How can you make such claims? These are great products

Re: VCs are scared when they should be greedy

#34
post #4
post #2

while I agree with the general premise (majority of VCs are not good investors) it's important to remember the money they raised isn't sitting in a bank account. It's likely still in the LPs stock portfolio, doing a capital call when everyone is down a lot can be tricky. You need to sell the investment more even though they agreed to give you the money when you asked

Yeah I was super confused by this. VCs generally don’t have all the money ready to invest. They may have raised a $300 mil fund but they don’t get that money until they call it in. If the LP says “no deals for 6 months” that’s how it is.

If the LPs don’t meet the capital calls, they’re in breach of their investor agreement, and the penalties are generally quite harsh, including potentially forfeiting a lot of the value they currently have in the fund.

Re: VCs are scared when they should be greedy

#35

> In contrast with the scenario in 2000, most of today’s tech companies are real businesses. How many of today's startups are just servicing each other with VC money? This isn't meant to be flippant - I'm genuinely curious (and while I bet it's a lot, I am skeptical it is overwhelming). I mean if we really look at some of the business models for these companies, they're clearly unsustainable. Uber is a prime example…

> I think tech investors are unable to see their bias for just how awful most tech companies today are.

I think investors are more greedy than stupid. When money was essentially free, weirder and weirder investments make sense. If the world was crazy and throwing money around, why not fund a bunch of ridiculous companies with the knowledge that you can very likely unload that risk on the public when the company ipos.

And we're seeing that that logic is correct. Just look at the record numbers of IPOs that were happening right before the market started to collapse [0].

Investors know they are playing musical chairs, but they're playing with the public and the know they song quite well and can tell when the music is winding down.

Now IPO'd companies that don't know how to make a profit are the public shareholders problem, not private VCs.

0. https://stockanalysis.com/ipos/statistics/

Re: VCs are scared when they should be greedy

#36
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Driver fees are already so low that between depreciation, gas, and your time, you're barely making ends meet driving. They can't squeeze the drivers any further, unless they only want people to be driving 15-year-old beaters.

Boy, this is an evergreen narrative on HN, but I don't really think it's true. The total all-in cost of a Prius (depreciation, maintenance, gasoline, etc...) is about 30 cents per mile. Uber drivers make about $1-$2 per mile which is a pretty big margin. Uber has been around for over 10 years now. Sure, not everyone is an accountant, but if Uber drained every driver's wallet, they'd have noticed by now. Interesting t…

How many uber drivers are in Priuses? I haven't ridden in a single one...

How many people do you personally know that make their living as an Uber driver? I don't mean pensioners making beer money, or people doing it as a side job, here.

I know one. He's been doing it for a year and half, or so. He doesn't own his car. he has to lease it on a weekly basis, and he's paying through the nose for the privilege. He's doing it because his credit is shit, and he has no savings to buy a car outright.

He's getting ahead, but if driver rates get cut, he'll be going right back to being a line cook.

Re: VCs are scared when they should be greedy

#37
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Boy, this is an evergreen narrative on HN, but I don't really think it's true. The total all-in cost of a Prius (depreciation, maintenance, gasoline, etc...) is about 30 cents per mile. Uber drivers make about $1-$2 per mile which is a pretty big margin. Uber has been around for over 10 years now. Sure, not everyone is an accountant, but if Uber drained every driver's wallet, they'd have noticed by now. Interesting t…

How many uber drivers are in Priuses? I haven't ridden in a single one... How many people do you personally know that make their living as an Uber driver? I don't mean pensioners making beer money, or people doing it as a side job, here. I know one. He's been doing it for a year and half, or so. He doesn't own his car. he has to lease it on a weekly basis, and he's paying through the nose for the privilege. He's doin…

Almost every Uber I've ever taken has been a Prius, save for the few occasions I've been in an Uber black.

Still, the math isn't much different for a Corolla or Civic. And the more you drive, the cheaper the cost per mile is.

Personally, I don't know anyone driving full time, but still know several driving 10 or so hours per week and they make about $300 for it.

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