Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions • Hacker News Board

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#31

Post by hulderKamp2 » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:14 PM UTC

88840-8855 wrote: post #4

_8j50 wrote: post #3

Covid shut down most LNG production in north america, good opportunity to get back to fracking and ruining the environment in US and Canada for the right price, theh can use tanker ships not just pipes unless they simply can't move that volume with ships.

there is no lng supply possible for Europe. you can frack as much as you want and ship as much as you want. the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US).

Europe is until now unwilling to tap available resources. For instance the Groningen gas field is not running at full capacity [0] (for various reasons) I think Europe is naive and should expect Russia to halt all exports when they need it the most. [0] https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2022/06/groningen-gas-should-b...

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#32

Post by causi » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:14 PM UTC

88840-8855 wrote: post #4

_8j50 wrote: post #3

Covid shut down most LNG production in north america, good opportunity to get back to fracking and ruining the environment in US and Canada for the right price, theh can use tanker ships not just pipes unless they simply can't move that volume with ships.

there is no lng supply possible for Europe. you can frack as much as you want and ship as much as you want. the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US).

the next 4 quarters will decide about the downfall of Europe (and ultimately the US)

The US is not particularly dependent on Europe. Total trade with Europe, both import and export, is just 3% of the US GDP.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#33

Post by olivermarks » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

https://www.rolls-royce.com/innovation/small-modular-reactor...

I'm on the fence about an all electric future- we simply don't have the grid capacity in most parts of the world - but the Germans and French who control the EU should have been developing SMNR years ago. They are now in an energy checkmate situation with a hostile country with an economy the size of Italy. Not clever,

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#34

Post by throwawaysleep » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

jonathan-adly wrote: post #25

There are solutions, just unpopular and require a political class that is not fickle and weak. Solution #1. Capitulate to Putin and treat Russia as a regional power that can gobble and punish its neighbors when they stray too far. Solution #2. Forget about the climate for the next 5 years, turn on all coal, nuclear powerplants. Solution #3. Put the Euro printer in overdrive and pay whatever price needed for the littl…

> Solution #2. Forget about the climate for the next 5 years, turn on all coal, nuclear powerplants.

Nuclear power is perfectly compatible with climate goals.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#35

Post by iso1631 » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

polotics wrote: post #21

oxff wrote: post #9

Glad to let moralistic foreign policy drive the entire trade block down the shitter (it is moralistic FP because EU did not nut up and actually deploy to protect the so-precious-Ukraine, but instead threw its own economy and living standards into chaos just so they wouldn't be mistaken to be pro-Putler). In short, insanity.

moralistic foreign policy as in not paying a country that sent its goons rape children? also putin said, lavrov said: we won't invade...

Yes.

Western countries have dealt with and enriched nasty reigimes one way or another for centuries

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#36

Post by toomuchtodo » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

88840-8855 wrote: post #28

toomuchtodo wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Constraint is a forcing function for ingenuity." Renewables are going to ramp, floating LNG import terminals are already en route (to add capacity to the existing 24 in EU countries), and industrial processes requiring LNG will make due with less or seek alternatives. Europe will place a small number of coal plants on temporary standby, and they will only add 1.3% to EU emissions annually, even in the worst-case sce…

How will renewables help this winter? All the stuff you describe are need at least 2 years. At least. Plus, they are expensive. Energy will come with a huge premium in Europe. This is the time that Putin needs to build the pipelines to other countries. Let us not forget that NOBODY is against the war: not a single South American, not any African country, not China, not India. This is a US/Canada/Europe/South Korea/Ja…

We have different perspectives. Are there challenges? Absolutely. Conversely, the free world ("United States and Co") has strong incentives to not allow Europe (a NATO ally) to fail due to Russia's actions. Direct military action is off the table at the moment (it appears?), but the US has robust economic capacity to assist logistically speaking. India may do nothing except get a deal on Russian energy, but China is in no position to assist considering the economic razor's edge they're currently on (they're even considering accepting imports of Australian coal again due to internal constraints).

Also, I take issue with "Expensive dirty LNG." While a greenhouse gas, fossil gas burns clean. It is a fine short term solution until this conflict reaches resolution, as long as you can shim in import infra at underutilized infrastructure intersections. The LNG shipping capacity is not a challenge (although import logistics are, as mentioned), and the cost premium is the cost of energy demand during a conflict.

> I disagree with the West to 100% and hope that Putin will finish off Ukraine asap so this topic is finally closed.

Speaking only based on factual information, this is unlikely. Putin is in poor health (shaking in public, puffy appearance likely due to heavy steroid use, putting off events without explanation), and the US will remain solvent longer than Russia can continue its military actions while under crippling economic sanctions. To allow Putin to succeed would set a geopolitical precedent that the developed world can't allow to be set. The American-supplied HIMARS are proving very effective in recent combat ops (per The Economist) against Russian assets, which is a positive sign that Ukraine continues to receive military support. In short, Putin will fail eventually because he cannot be allowed to succeed, we're simply haggling over the timeline.

Disclaimer: US citizen, not a warmonger, pragmatic about the application of military force as a necessary evil.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#37

Post by spaceman_2020 » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

nisa wrote: post #18

To get some perspective why this is such a hotly debated topic - just got my heating bill for the last year - just a small 2 person flat in a small town - most flats in Germany are heated by gas one way or another - 700€/year with 5.2ct/kWh for 2021 - current market is more like 15ct/kWh and will probably rise. With the rise in rent prices in the last years this could push quite a bit of poor / lower middle class peo…

Have you seen any impact of the Euro's drop against the dollar in your day to day life? Say, things from American companies getting substantially more expensive, or salaries rising to keep pace with American counterparts?

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#38

Post by inglor_cz » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:15 PM UTC

jonathan-adly wrote: post #25

There are solutions, just unpopular and require a political class that is not fickle and weak. Solution #1. Capitulate to Putin and treat Russia as a regional power that can gobble and punish its neighbors when they stray too far. Solution #2. Forget about the climate for the next 5 years, turn on all coal, nuclear powerplants. Solution #3. Put the Euro printer in overdrive and pay whatever price needed for the littl…

I am a fan of nuclear energy, but German nuclear powerplants have been underinvested for years because of the pending Atomausstieg (nuclear exit). It didn't make economic sense to maintain facilities that were on their way out anyway.

So they are likely not in shape to be turned on again.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#39

Post by oxff » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:16 PM UTC

shafyy wrote: post #22

oxff wrote: post #9

Glad to let moralistic foreign policy drive the entire trade block down the shitter (it is moralistic FP because EU did not nut up and actually deploy to protect the so-precious-Ukraine, but instead threw its own economy and living standards into chaos just so they wouldn't be mistaken to be pro-Putler). In short, insanity.

Well, it's easy to sit on HN simplify super complex international situation to one dimension with the benefit of hindsight, isn't it?

I am not even using hindsight though. Even in Feb 1st you'd have to be ignorant to think the self-sanction regime will do anything.

Re: Looming natural gas shortages has the EU scrambling for solutions

#40

Post by V__ » Fri, Jul 15, 2022, 4:16 PM UTC

oxff wrote: post #9

Glad to let moralistic foreign policy drive the entire trade block down the shitter (it is moralistic FP because EU did not nut up and actually deploy to protect the so-precious-Ukraine, but instead threw its own economy and living standards into chaos just so they wouldn't be mistaken to be pro-Putler). In short, insanity.

I think this argument is very short-term thinking. Letting Russia take Ukraine would have enormous security implications long term.

I mean the lack of sanctions, hasn't stopped Russia after taking Crimea, so it's only fair to assume Ukraine wouldn't be the end to Russia's (Putin's) expansion either. They implied so many times. Their enormous investments in the destabilization of foreign politics, have made it a very real possibility that the U.S. might drop out of NATO, if Trump gets reelected. Orban and Erdogan are also wild cards.

Such a development would put Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, and Poland at risk.

In long, that isn't insanity at all.