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The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

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Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#31

Post by Animats »

But the guy who wrote the article is sure ad spend on crypto is coming back.

Maybe not. Most of crypto works like a Ponzi scheme. Gains to early investors come from later investors. Eventually, you run out of suckers. We're there.

Last 24 hours:

- Someone pulled another $160 million out of USDT. Look at their market cap graph for the last 3 months. Every few days, somebody pulls out another $100 million+ amount. Pretty soon you're talking about real money.[1]

- Vauld went bust.[2]

- The Celsius collapse is affecting Aave and MakerDAO.[3]

All those "staking" schemes are based entirely on a "line goes up" assumption. All they are doing is feeding funds into some speculation.

[1] https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/tether/

[2] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31974146

[3] https://cointelegraph.com/news/maker-cuts-off-aave-s-dai-sup...

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#32

Post by huijzer »

hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

"And nothing of value was lost." This was one of the top voted posts in the Austin subreddit recently: https://old.reddit.com/r/Austin/comments/vmtmul/finally_some... Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession. I don't…

> Seriously, during other crashes, I remember thinking of the real negative externalities that happened during the crash, e.g. many economists have drawn lines to the current housing supply crunch due to underinvestment after the Great Recession.

Don’t underestimate what can come still. Based on the high price to equity ratios in the stock market, it is likely that the "correction" will correct more. This is also in line with the recent rounds of layoffs. Crypto going down first makes sense due to the amount of speculation. I‘m really curious whether we‘ll get a Lehman Brothers moment in 2022.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#33

Post by alkonaut »

When I first saw things like “crypto.com” on a big football team’s jersey, a stadium name or in F1, I knew it was only a matter of time until it all came crashing down.

I can’t believe I’m longing back to the days when it was gambling and petroligarchs instead.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#34

Post by mdm12 »

pavlov wrote: post #29
Retric wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s interesting about this crash is prices are still so high. Bitcoin is close to 20,000$ right now. So there are still huge paper losses, but I doubt that many bought in at just 20+k. It’s odd to look prices dropping to 1/3 and think thing things could get a lot worse or it could turn into just another blip on a larger upwards trajectory.

A ton of people bought Bitcoin at >$20k. It reached that milestone even before Elon Musk started promoting it about 18 months ago, and that's when the hype really started. I suspect that most retail Bitcoin holders bought it last year and are down 30-70%. The people who post on HN are very much outliers, having known about Bitcoin for a decade. The real retail volume in 2021 came from relatively uninformed people buy…

Apparently, the average investor's position for BTC in Coinbase is around 21k, per some Mizuho survey: https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/survey-show.... So, many folks are underwater on their so-called 'investment'.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#35

Post by yieldcrv »

cynusx wrote: post #22
paulpauper wrote: post #9

>from $3 trillion to roughly $900 billion, and analysts predict the meltdown will continue. It's even worse than that. The $900 billion is about 20% stable coins.

Of which one stablecoin that everybody knows is very unreliable is still alive and well. That's very likely to collapse too soon imo.

Rumors are swirling about USDC via Silvergate bank as well, which would be tragic and take down DAI too

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#36

Post by jquery »

Victerius wrote: post #18
Retric wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s interesting about this crash is prices are still so high. Bitcoin is close to 20,000$ right now. So there are still huge paper losses, but I doubt that many bought in at just 20+k. It’s odd to look prices dropping to 1/3 and think thing things could get a lot worse or it could turn into just another blip on a larger upwards trajectory.

One bitcoin could be worth $20 or $200 000 in one year. Which is just one of the reasons why it's a bad store of value or medium of exchange.

To be fair, that property made it great for people selling get-rich-quick scams and the people falling for them. A few people did get rich, pay no attention to the vast majority who lost money.

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#37

Post by jquery »

Animats wrote: post #31

But the guy who wrote the article is sure ad spend on crypto is coming back. Maybe not. Most of crypto works like a Ponzi scheme. Gains to early investors come from later investors. Eventually, you run out of suckers. We're there. Last 24 hours: - Someone pulled another $160 million out of USDT. Look at their market cap graph for the last 3 months. Every few days, somebody pulls out another $100 million+ amount. Pret…

I wonder what the remaining USDT holders are waiting for? Is it just the market isn't liquid enough to pull out more than $100M/day?

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#38

Post by labrador »

> Don’t expect to see many crypto ads for a minute

"I haven't seen him for a minute"

"I haven't been home for a minute"

If you're wondering like me why everyone started saying "for a minute" and where it came from, I recently watched The Wire and that's the earliest use I know about.

When I was growing up in America, people said they "had to stand in line" but now they say "had to stand on line"

I believe "stand on" instead of "stand in" comes from Britain

Re: The crypto crisis has created an advertising vacuum

#40

Post by ALittleLight »

cehrlich wrote: post #6
xwdv wrote: post #5

Bitcoin has been dropping about 10k per month the last few months. The next big 10k drop should come around the middle of July, and in August I predict the price will be in the low thousands.

I'm also bearish on crypto, but by that logic it will be at -10k three months from now.

That's when I plan to buy as much as possible.
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