My biggest issue with Groupon's IPO is not the stupid gambling that's going on, but the consequence that will have in other tech stocks and investment in tech companies in general.
Groupon shares open up 40%
31–40 of 61 posts
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#321. IPO 50% lower then you guided 6 months ago 2. Float so few shares that you can push the value yourself with cash from previous financing round 3. ?? 4. Profit
I would put it:
1. IPO 50% lower then you guided 6 months ago 2. Float so few shares that you can push the value yourself with cash from previous financing round 3. Profit 4. ???
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#33Earlier quoted context omitted.
One rice university study says that 70% of health spa's , yoga studios and similar businesses see repeat customers. Since it doesn't cost a yoga studio to add a person to a lesson(up to a point), customer cheapness is less an issue and maybe daily deals are a new effective way to better scale certain kind of businesses.
Doesn't it concern you that Groupon works best for services that no one needs ? I would say that in times of austerity, yoga, helicopter rides, health spas, parachuting, etc. are the first to go.
> Doesn't it concern you that Groupon works best for services that no one needs?
Even if that were the case, not in the slightest. Massive businesses are built on items that you or someone do not perceive to be needed.
But Groupon also works in austere times both because people are looking for deals and businesses are looking for inexpensive or free marketing.
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#34I haven't felt this strongly about shorting a stock long-term in a long time. But I don't know how long the short-term irrational exuberance is going to last - will it wipe out my investment before the stock crashes down? I haven't seen one pro-Groupon (or general daily deals) analyses that says anything different than "it gets people in the door and generates buzz" which I think is nothing more than fuzzy PR talk si…
I've been burned by this before, especially by the margin requirements for a short-sale. It doesn't matter how confident you are a stock will crash, because if it keeps going up, eventually you will either need to sell at a big loss or add more money to keep up. And it's very tempting to short even more as it continues to go up, since you'll make even more when it crashes! And then you run out of money and are screwe…
In a couple weeks, options will be available on the stock and you can buy puts. The upside isn't as good but the downside is capped instead of unlimited.
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#35Trading volume went downhill quite quickly..
As must be the case when a stock starts trading for the very first time.
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#36Earlier quoted context omitted.
Doesn't it concern you that Groupon works best for services that no one needs ? I would say that in times of austerity, yoga, helicopter rides, health spas, parachuting, etc. are the first to go.
> Doesn't it concern you that Groupon works best for services that no one needs? Even if that were the case, not in the slightest. Massive businesses are built on items that you or someone do not perceive to be needed. But Groupon also works in austere times both because people are looking for deals and businesses are looking for inexpensive or free marketing.
50% of proceeds is not cheap for businesses. Discounts off MSRP is often not a bargain for consumers.
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#37I haven't felt this strongly about shorting a stock long-term in a long time. But I don't know how long the short-term irrational exuberance is going to last - will it wipe out my investment before the stock crashes down? I haven't seen one pro-Groupon (or general daily deals) analyses that says anything different than "it gets people in the door and generates buzz" which I think is nothing more than fuzzy PR talk si…
E*Trade won't let me short it, at the moment anyway, because they say they can't borrow shares for it.
I haven't felt this strongly about a short in a long time, either.
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#38This is going to be big. I am selling all of my Bit Coins at once to invest. Out of my way suckers.
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#39I've been getting what seem to be Groupon-ish offers from both Amazon and Google. Basically discount deals for things in my area, "pay $10 for $20 worth of foo" kind of things.
I never (that I'm aware of) asked for these offers, and it seems that if both Google and Amazon are actively pushing these out to their user base that Groupon is already borked.
Re: Groupon shares open up 40%
#40"Groupon is only floating a small amount of shares, 35 million – about 5.5% of its 637.3 million shares outstanding." This reminds me of Jason Fried's prank that 37 Signals valuation tops $100B! http://37signals.com/svn/posts/1941-press-release-37signals-...
I guess, but that is how private companies are valued every day. I sell you 5% for $1 million, we are both agreeing that the company is worth $20 million.
That is also how all public companies are valued. Only a fraction of shares are traded on any particular day, and that is what's used to determine the market cap.