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Hot or Not?

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Re: Hot or Not?

#31

Post by uniqueuid »

jacquesm wrote: post #24

The scientific consensus is more than clear, doing your own "research" isn't going to make a difference except to engage with the people that are already happy to ignore science. If anything you'd have to begin to wonder in what ways airports are going to be different from global averages and I can think of a whole pile of reasons why the two would diverge (such as the presence of a large chunk of asphalt or concrete…

Excellent point, and to add a bit:

Scientific consensus does not mean the average of all opinions (i.e. "scientists on average believe in 2 degrees warming"), nor does it mean the average of all possible values of opinions ("there are people that believe in 2 degrees, and there are people that believe in 0 degrees"). These heuristics are wrong.

It's a summary that needs to include reputation, credibility, trajectory of findings and a lot of structural knowledge of how the field has evolved over time. All of these are not things that an outsider can easily know to even look for.

Re: Hot or Not?

#32

Post by correlator »

I enjoyed this and respect citizens who feel motivated enough to look at underlying data..

This type of discourse ("here is what I did and here is what I saw") leaves room to comment and make progress. People can discuss measurement methods, statistical analysis, and other objective things about a tightly scoped project like this.

This is very clear reading the comments in the substack. A comment exchange that reminded me of my days in grad school:

commenter: "What I think can be taken conclusively from this survey is that temperature is quite regionally variable, and there are a variety of different trends over time in these locations. Do you feel that there is some more significant conclusion that can be drawn from this?"

author: "I am hesitant to draw any conclusions. I am more in a state of examining the data itself and asking questions."

Re: Hot or Not?

#33

Post by jacquesm »

correlator wrote: post #32

I enjoyed this and respect citizens who feel motivated enough to look at underlying data.. This type of discourse ("here is what I did and here is what I saw") leaves room to comment and make progress. People can discuss measurement methods, statistical analysis, and other objective things about a tightly scoped project like this. This is very clear reading the comments in the substack. A comment exchange that remind…

You can't really draw climate change conclusions from the input data though, that's the fallacy that breaks this whole article at the foundation.

Let me rephrase that to make it even more clear: if climate change to date would be such that it would show up in datasets like these then we would not have needed any climate research to begin with. We're talking about 1 degree average change over a 60 year period across the globe. So that includes the oceans, the poles and a ton of other places where you won't find airports (or thermometers, for that matter).

Re: Hot or Not?

#34

Post by misslibby »

xyzzy123 wrote: post #23
truculent wrote: post #5

This is just a bunch of plots with no effort to engage with the existing literature and study. Frankly, it is a waste of time trying to draw conclusions about global warming from this.

I don't think the author adequately considers changes to the local environment of the thermometer, changes in the equipment itself (eg replacement, movement) possible changes in recording methodology and so on. There was no real effort to understand the possible sources of noise or error in the measurements.

But local changes of environment would have been expected to increase temperature readings? More asphalt, more buildings...

Re: Hot or Not?

#35

Post by jacquesm »

moonchrome wrote: post #30
googlryas wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You don't notice the vertical differences, you notice the horizontal distances (land that is covered which was not previously covered).

I'm a little bit younger than OP (~10 years) - I grew up on an island in Croatia and I noticed no difference in beaches that I visited when I was a kid. The shallow rock peers are all in the same place, beaches are the same size. Only difference I see is a slew of tourists packing every cm2 where there were far fewer while I was growing up, a lot of them getting off on how they are participating in "sustainable touri…

If the beach gradient is extremely shallow it will show up, if it steep you won't see any change at all for a really long time.

Re: Hot or Not?

#37

Post by cleandreams »

FranchuFranchu wrote: post #29

I think that this has good intentions, at least. Science should be easily reproducible. But using the median for this is very very silly, and I don't think the results from this are very meaningful.

The claim that science should be easily reproducible is wrong. Take collider experiments, or huge data set analysis problems.

Re: Hot or Not?

#38

Post by jacquesm »

misslibby wrote: post #34
xyzzy123 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think the author adequately considers changes to the local environment of the thermometer, changes in the equipment itself (eg replacement, movement) possible changes in recording methodology and so on. There was no real effort to understand the possible sources of noise or error in the measurements.

But local changes of environment would have been expected to increase temperature readings? More asphalt, more buildings...

Not necessarily, it could just as easily go the other way (thermal sink dropping the average).

Re: Hot or Not?

#39

Post by PaulDavisThe1st »

autokad wrote: post #12
lakomen wrote: post #6

All I can say as a 47 year old who lived most of his life in Germany is that the summers when I was a teen, so 30 years ago were considered hot when they were over 25°C. This year in May we had 32°C. Deny or criticize all you want cherries blossoming on Christmas in Berlin is NOT normal. And neither is the absence of snow in winter and mild temperatures. Those graphs don't impress me at all, because I remember what i…

I do think the global temperature is rising, but you can't say things like 'what I considered hot as a kid is different than what I now consider hot' and be taking seriously scientifically. Its an interesting anecdotal point but that's about it. I'm sure the data for where you grew up as a kid is available for the last 50 years, so get the data and give a real numbers to numbers comparison. I have actually done this…

> Its an interesting anecdotal point but that's about it

I hate quoting Bezos about this, but it's catchy and thought provoking: when the anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right.

Re: Hot or Not?

#40

Post by option_key »

outside1234 wrote: post #19
blangk wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What if existing literature and study is somewhat biased by 'green' funding?

Quoted post unavailable.

>and if necessary, turn off Fox News

Quips like this aren't very productive if you want to convince others of your viewpoint.

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