Everything seems to be underperforming. Most tech stocks are at their 2020 levels or headed towards it. Almost all tech IPOs in the last year are down. With everything being down, how is Bitcoin's performance an outlier?
Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
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Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#32Earlier quoted context omitted.
(Pure speculation) Maybe not war in Ukraine itself but fall in Russia’s imports ("to levels not seen since the early 2000s" [1]), and therefore lack of foreign currency? So some billionaires there could decide to get out of crypto? [1] https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/25/russias-imports-fa...
Russia has huge surplus of foreign cash right now. If anything, I would expect billionaries to get into crypto, since what would you hodl instead: Russian Rouble and risk its volatility? USD in bank and risk its freezing? Physical printed USD? Not available in sufficient quantities.
How a Russian billionaire can get in crypto now? All he can is to suck all bitcoins on local markets, I can not see any possible connection between US miners and Russian buyers with dollars.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#33Wake me up when it's sub 2$. Where it will eventually end up. Or maybe dollar collapse first, both good options.
Eventually, but maybe not this cycle. I think it’ll get to 3-5k and remain there for 2 years and then go up again for the next hype and get-rich-quick-everything-must-be-blockchain cycle. Even when Tether collapses, I see still too much hype and believers for it to reach under 1000$. Or course there is always a chance the US/EU ban cryptocurrencies (they already regulated the hell out of fiat/crypto conversions for ML purposes) and then it’s gone.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#34Earlier quoted context omitted.
You sort of made no point. Bitcoin falling below a certain price threshold is implicative and interesting to a lot of people. You aren't the target for this article maybe.
I may not be. Then, since I don’t see it then I genuinely wonder: what do you find interesting about it? The most interesting thing to me is how correlated it is to the S&P 500. It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. Suddenly, we don’t see the opposite message so much (that it isn’t an inflation hedge). This shows a positivity bias and points to a certain informati…
> It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t.
It's still a strictly speculative instrument which target (say, in 50 years) value is still unknown - may be anything, for example $1k, $100k, $0. As such, it's currently a terrible inflation hedge. Precious metals are much better for that.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#35Everything seems to be underperforming. Most tech stocks are at their 2020 levels or headed towards it. Almost all tech IPOs in the last year are down. With everything being down, how is Bitcoin's performance an outlier?
Not IMO. Simply more volatile.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#36and it will probably continue to fall long term relative to better assets, unless the protocol or tech changes drastically - or if PoS somehow proves to be untenable.
but contrary to a lot of HN commenters in these threads, this is not nearly the death of crypto currencies that they think it is.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#37I am a long-term cryptocurrency bull. I love the ideals of cryptocurrencies. To be fair, I am also very cynical about the current price of bitcoin. With that said, given the glut of cryptocurrency articles on HN that have a very similar nature, I wish I could downvote this submission back to 1 point. Lower than 20k? Alright, that’s not interesting from a technical perspective. It’s also not interesting from an econom…
This particular level ($20K) is actually very interesting. Because it's the top from the previous bull run. And cryptobro TAs everywhere were parroting incessantly the mantra "Bitcoin never falls below the top from the previous bullrun". Well, oops.
Ah, so a dig at TA then? Please do elaborate :)
The chart is not enough context for me.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#38Earlier quoted context omitted.
And I hope it continues this way until crypto evolves beyond the ponzi model. People can lose real money on these alpha-stage experiments.
I hope it continues to evolve too! But c’mon, lower than 20k? Not newsworthy IMO, not with an attempt at a strong analysis behind (e.g. some on-chain analysis of outflows/inflows)
While I get what you're saying, it is important that it has dipped a significant amount because I think it questions the value of BTC as a store of value and it allows a lot of discussions on the level of volatility, and likely invokes a lot of emotions in people who do believe in the goals of BTC as an alternative store of money.
One of my colleagues is from north Africa and worked in Europe to send money to his family and friends, investing in BTC as it was easier to handle the international transfers. This was a great use for BTC in my opinion and it helped him raise his close ones out of poverty on paper :)
But with the dip, and people believing in the staying power of BTC, a lot of those funds are compromised now. They're not ruined and people are still better off than others, but there's a real concern on if it will be worth it to continue with BTC; the buy-in price is now higher than the current price by far and the total investment has devalued greatly and continuesto devalue without a lot of insight as to why or what can even be done.
So I think the personal stories like this emphasize the importance of the drop, especially since 20k was a fairly signofjcakt growth point for BTC as I remember it.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#39Earlier quoted context omitted.
I may not be. Then, since I don’t see it then I genuinely wonder: what do you find interesting about it? The most interesting thing to me is how correlated it is to the S&P 500. It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. Suddenly, we don’t see the opposite message so much (that it isn’t an inflation hedge). This shows a positivity bias and points to a certain informati…
> It’s interesting in the sense that people used to say it’s an inflation hedge but it isn’t. It's still a strictly speculative instrument which target (say, in 50 years) value is still unknown - may be anything, for example $1k, $100k, $0. As such, it's currently a terrible inflation hedge. Precious metals are much better for that.
Checkout Patrick Boyle and the Plain Bagel. One of them gave convincing arguments that precious metals are not great inflation hedges. They tend to be academic yet practical about explaining financial markets.
Re: Bitcoin Falls Below $20k
#40I am a long-term cryptocurrency bull. I love the ideals of cryptocurrencies. To be fair, I am also very cynical about the current price of bitcoin. With that said, given the glut of cryptocurrency articles on HN that have a very similar nature, I wish I could downvote this submission back to 1 point. Lower than 20k? Alright, that’s not interesting from a technical perspective. It’s also not interesting from an econom…
it's funny that this message is downvoted here. because there are hundreds of users who agree with this message. lol
While there might be an upvote/downvote symmetry, the way I look at it is:
1 upvote: 50 people agree
1 downvote: 50 people disagree
I have no data for this simple model. If I had, then it would be updated already ;-)
According to my simple model, I’d venture to guess that more people disagree than agree.