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Overthinking (2021)

kerkour.com

31–40 of 70 posts

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#31
This is a very minor nitpick, but saying you need a specific technology is part of the problem, even if it's a really good and appropriately-complicated technology like postgres.

90% of the time, you need whatever technology your company already uses, or your team already knows, that solves the problem.

If your company already uses .NET and SQL Server, you probably don't need node.js and postgres. If your company already uses PHP and sqlite, you still might not need postgres, unless there's an identifiable reason to switch.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#32

Amazon has an internal tool called "Forte", a tool used once a year for employees to provide "anonymous" feedback for one another. One piece of feedback that cropped up multiple times for me, from multiple people, was that I could improve in "bias for action", akin to analysis paralysis mentioned in the article. At first, I got a bit defensive ... and in response, I ended up running an experiment, delivering code & w…

> incomplete, unpolished, not quite at the "bar"

Do you think your coworkers were telling you your bar was too high?

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#33

Living in China it's quite amazing how the business culture differs from many western markets. People seem to throw themselves in to ventures without business plans, market research or specific costings. I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. These days, when I think of anal…

> I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. First, how is the cost of failure reduced? It sounds like fundamental economics: If you reduce the cost of investing, usually by lowering interest rates, then investment increases, following the pattern you described. What is the stat…

There's a social cost & opportunity cost to failure. If a culture stigmatizes failure there's less risk taking. Though I think it often happens at the family level too: One business failure and you're the family screw up, maybe even if you get success later on it's still held over your head.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#34
post #9
post #4

A big part of learning this is not overanalyzing past failures. Check and see if you missed something major, but then don't dwell much on the details; perhaps anything you would have done would have been doomed to failure; it wasn't the time, etc.

PA Yeomans, the 'other' father of permaculture, had a checklist he called the Scale of Permanence. It's a sort of priority list for irreversible decisions, and is helpful for figuring out if you're expending energy on something that's easy to change later, or rashly deciding on something that is going to be difficult or infeasible to change later. In a system that favors watching first and acting at the last responsi…

I'd like to read more on this.

I'd also like something much more difficult to estimate: Scale of Importance.

You have some sloppy but readable code in a unit test vs. sloppy and unreadable code in a tight loop in a production module. Which one is more important?

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#35
Relatedly, this is also a big reason why I personally struggle to work at large tech companies. The velocity just isn't there because you have to be more thoughtful before you act - the environment is less conducive to quick action and less forgiving of mistakes. And you specifically have to be more thoughtful about considerations that are often immaterial to core business value. I realized after a while that certain large company experiences can train you such that you no longer know how to hustle, and that seemed like a considerable invisible cost of the arrangement.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#36
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are not many industry breaking huge china based companies globally in comparison of how many people they have. Perhaps our way might not be that bad after all. And while Chinese currently the EV market discovers it's totally unclear how the car industry will look in 10 years

After 20+ years here (currently, like ~every other foreigner, leaving) I ascribe the failure of China to innovate at a rate matching its size, industrial significance and affluence to the politicization of its education and media systems primarily and secondly to its insistence on isolating young people from foreign internet influence. The dynamism of small business is a counter-weight, not a contributor. Local engin…

> I ascribe the failure of China to innovate at a rate matching its size, industrial significance and affluence to the politicization of its education and media systems primarily and secondly to its insistence on isolating young people from foreign internet influence.

That follows an old pattern: In a leading history of modern China (1644 to the late 20th century) [0] they talked about the Chinese emporer's response to the Enlightenment in the West and the resulting power imbalance, which resulted in Western countries stealing Chinese cities and forcing trade on China (including opium). The following probably has a few details off, but my point is the general pattern:

Before the opium wars in the mid-19th century, the Emporer Qianlong wrote a famous letter in 1793 to the King George III of England in response to an offer of trade and diplomatic relations: "As your Ambassador can see for himself, we possess all things. I set no value on objects strange or ingenious, and have no use for your country's manufactures." [1]

The imperial policy was to severely limit all interactions with the outside: No diplomats, no trade, no tourists, nothing. Some foreigners lived in Peking, but were restricted in their movements and not allowed to leave China (read the cited letter for details). IIRC, foreign traders were restricted to special ports where they were isolated from the country itself.

Subsequently, the Western countries, with their advanced technology, siezed control of Chinese port cities and forced trade on China. The Chinese state could no longer deny the value of these manufactures, and China's need for them.

(Perhaps think of this from the perspective of an isolated country that lacked all IT and was trying to acquire it for their military, but without any exposure of their people to the people who make it and without any changes in their own society:) They tried to simply acquire the technology, but of course had trouble operating and maintaining it. Then they allowed certain military officers to receive training in operating it, but still couldn't supply their own parts, maintenance, etc. Then they learned some of the manufacturing, but didn't have the military doctrine or education to apply it. They tried learning the doctrine, but lacking Western educations, couldn't really utilize it or understand it broadly throughout their miltary. ... They tried expanding step by step, but in the end, lacking widespread Western education, they lacked people who could understand the technology and find ways to apply it. You would be surprised how much of Western values is embedded in that technology. (Again, some details may be off, but that was the pattern over decades.)

Today, thankfully, many people in China can access a better education and foreign governments no longer control parts of China. But it seems like the Chinese Communist government is trying to have capitalism and free markets without freedom and free-thinking - arguably another step in the same process. (And to be clear, I'd love for the people of China to have freedom and self-determination to control their own fates - I am sure they would thrive, as the people of Taiwan and Hong Kong have shown.)

In many ways, IMHO, the current Chinese Communists are similar to the imperial dynasties that preceded them.

[0] Either Emmanual Hsu or Jonathan Spence, I don't recall which one.

[1] https://china.usc.edu/emperor-qianlong-letter-george-iii-179...

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. First, how is the cost of failure reduced? It sounds like fundamental economics: If you reduce the cost of investing, usually by lowering interest rates, then investment increases, following the pattern you described. What is the stat…

There's a social cost & opportunity cost to failure. If a culture stigmatizes failure there's less risk taking. Though I think it often happens at the family level too: One business failure and you're the family screw up, maybe even if you get success later on it's still held over your head.

I understand that, but the comment seemed to say there was less cost to failure in China, not more.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#38
post #13

Living in China it's quite amazing how the business culture differs from many western markets. People seem to throw themselves in to ventures without business plans, market research or specific costings. I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. These days, when I think of anal…

There are not many industry breaking huge china based companies globally in comparison of how many people they have. Perhaps our way might not be that bad after all. And while Chinese currently the EV market discovers it's totally unclear how the car industry will look in 10 years

> Perhaps our way might not be that bad after all.

I think it's a fundamental error to call anything 'our way' or 'their way'. It prevents you - and them - from learning and integrating ideas. My way is to avidly learn and use the best ideas I can find, regardless of their source.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

After 20+ years here (currently, like ~every other foreigner, leaving) I ascribe the failure of China to innovate at a rate matching its size, industrial significance and affluence to the politicization of its education and media systems primarily and secondly to its insistence on isolating young people from foreign internet influence. The dynamism of small business is a counter-weight, not a contributor. Local engin…

> I ascribe the failure of China to innovate at a rate matching its size, industrial significance and affluence to the politicization of its education and media systems primarily and secondly to its insistence on isolating young people from foreign internet influence. That follows an old pattern: In a leading history of modern China (1644 to the late 20th century) [0] they talked about the Chinese emporer's response…

Yes, history repeats itself. Perhaps human nature will never change, but we have the technology to meaningfully change our political systems, education, media, supply chains and social fabric and those together should be powerful enough to adjust our aggregate behavior. It is perhaps the greatest tragedy of modern China that it has come upon the most realistic such opportunity ever presented to mankind and so far squandered it on imitation and autocracy.

Re: Overthinking (2021)

#40

Living in China it's quite amazing how the business culture differs from many western markets. People seem to throw themselves in to ventures without business plans, market research or specific costings. I suppose that when the cost of failure is reduced, dynamism results, because reaction times to opportunities are reduced and people are able to take the risk of following a new path. These days, when I think of anal…

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