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Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

thedefensepost.com

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Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#31

Post by FooBarWidget »

throw10920 wrote: post #26
FooBarWidget wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China. Agreements in international politics are made for a purpose. Perhaps to keep peace, or to protect some interest, etc. If the situation changes such that that purpose can no longer be served — especially if that purpose is an extremely important core interest — then any country will seek to deviate from agreed upon behavior. For example, the US clearly agreed…

> Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China. Yes, but merely looking at the agreement that China broke recently with the invasion of Hong Kong, a reasonable person would assume that there's a much higher risk of them breaking more agreements than another arbitrary country that hasn't been invading other countries recently. Said another way, most people currently will trust France to honor a pact more…

Invading Hong Kong? Are you equating Hong Kong to Ukraine? How does that equation exactly work, given that Hong Kong was Chinese territory in the 19th century and was taken away by the British by force for refusing to buy opium?

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#32

Post by ethbr0 »

yellow_lead wrote: post #3

In Taiwan right now, I was surprised how close some Taiwan-controlled islands are to the mainland. Kinmen is just 10km away[1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinmen

Wikipedia has a great map [0] and 1960s context [1] on Quemoy and Matsu.

Broadly speaking, the ROC controlled them, the CCP attempted to seize them [2] in the 1950s, and the US threatened involvement (including nuclear). Then everyone settled down to just lobbing artillery at each other.

In modern times, they're more of a symbol than an asset, in that if the CCP made moves to seize them, the US would assume an invasion of Taiwan was imminent, and bad things would ensure for everyone.

Consequently, the CCP has no real reason to care about them until they're also willing to invade the main island of Taiwan.

[0] https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6f/Na...

[1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matsu_Islands#Republic_of_Ch...

[2] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Taiwan_Strait_Crisis

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#34

Post by kmonsen »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #25
aaaaaaaaata wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Anything Russia does to other states has got absolutely nothing to do with it. Your comment was excellent, and helpful to me. Thanks. I do disagree that China isn't watching US reaction through a million lenses to see how they can best increase their odds rolling over Taiwan with minimal damage. My strongest evidence? Political changes in Hong Kong.

China is definitely watching the US, but I don't think it's for the reason you imagine. China prefers peaceful reunification. They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. At the same time, peaceful reunification is a core interest of China. Which means that they will go to war, but only if they believe peaceful reunification is no longer possible. So yes they do watch the US to make calculations. But even if…

Peaceful reunification is not possible after China showed that one country two systems will not be tolerated anymore.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#35

Post by rocqua »

melling wrote: post #17
mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

Russia has too much artillery to be humiliated. They are shelling everything and rolling over the dust. “Russia isn't fighting a campaign of attrition, it's waging a war of oblivion.” https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61634050.amp

If you plan a quick win and instead manage to claim 2 provinces after you flattened them, that is humiliating.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#36

Post by thesausageking »

FooBarWidget wrote: post #5
mensetmanusman wrote: post #2

Unfortunately, China will likely attack Taiwan unless Russia is humiliated.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

TSMC also guarantees China won't attack Taiwan in the near term. They're about 30% of the semiconductor industry and their most advanced foundries are only in Taiwan and no one else has been able to replicate them elsewhere. An invasion would cripple tech in China and the West, so the US would get involved and it would lead to a full scale war which no one wants.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#37

Post by indymike »

throw10920 wrote: post #26
FooBarWidget wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China. Agreements in international politics are made for a purpose. Perhaps to keep peace, or to protect some interest, etc. If the situation changes such that that purpose can no longer be served — especially if that purpose is an extremely important core interest — then any country will seek to deviate from agreed upon behavior. For example, the US clearly agreed…

> Deviations in agreements is not a thing exclusive to China. Yes, but merely looking at the agreement that China broke recently with the invasion of Hong Kong, a reasonable person would assume that there's a much higher risk of them breaking more agreements than another arbitrary country that hasn't been invading other countries recently. Said another way, most people currently will trust France to honor a pact more…

The travesty in Hong Kong is that the people of Hong Kong had zero say in any of it.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#38

Post by jazzyjackson »

antux wrote: post #19

China is always overstepping their bounds and needs to be checked by the superpowers of the world. Without checks and balances, they will continue to bully the neighboring countries by force and deception.

what does "checked" mean? does it involve aircraft carriers? I don't mind if we keep playing the midgame part of chess for a while longer...

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#39

Post by FooBarWidget »

indymike wrote: post #30
FooBarWidget wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The height of military tensions were in the late 50s, when China and Taiwan were shelling each other. In later deca…

> That is a fundamental misreading of China's relationship with Taiwan and China's intentions. China is likely to never attack Taiwan as long as the status quo is maintained, and as long as they believe that eventual peaceful reunification is possible. China's policy on Taiwan has not changed for decades. The problem is that the status quo may not be acceptable to the people of Taiwan and reunification is not accepta…

You know, the early 2000s looked pretty promising, with China and Taiwan having normalized relations for a while and with cross-strait business blooming. Back then a large portion of Taiwanese identified as Chinese. Today's tensions haven't always been there. As little as 10 years ago, Taiwanese supported reunification (though on their terms, e.g. the ROC government takes over the mainland)

Ironically, Taiwan is very pro-Japan nowadays even though Japan was a colonizer in the early 20th century. Given this, it's not at all set in stone that relations will stay bad if peace endures.

Re: Taiwan to Deploy ‘Bee Eye’ Radars Near Chinese Mainland

#40

Post by Uehreka »

Gentil wrote: post #16
fartcannon wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about what they did in Hong Kong? They changed the rules once, what stops them from doing it again? History clearly means nothing.

Because TSMC still contributes to the manufacturing 90%+ of the semi conductors FOR the whole world. AFAIK, Samsung which is one of their competitor too uses TSMC. So touching Taiwan is an automatic trigger for the entire world. You saw what the pandemic did to the semi conductor industry. Now imagine if a war was happening there. The world could just stop. Literally. Like firesale in Die hard 4. But in universal sca…

The M1 chips are made entirely by TSMC, they reinforce the status quo, they don’t change it. RISC-V is still years from matching ARM performance or cost, and by the time it does, a lot of it will likely be getting manufactured by TSMC. TSMC is really good at making chips, and really good at learning how to make new kinds of chips, so any change will have to come from other fabs getting equally good.
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