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Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

scholars-stage.org

31–40 of 88 posts

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#31
> The most important technology of the First World War was not the machine gun but the railroad

I disagree. First, the railroad already existed. You can argue its use in war was new. The Germans notably built railroads to the front at huge scale. But this presupposes a relatively static front, which was the reality of WWI. Probably the most important technological development was neither of these things: it was artillery.

I cannot recommend enough Dan Carlin's Hardcore History podcast. There is a 6 part series called A Blueprint for Armageddon [1] that is well worth the 30+ hours it'll take to listen to.

Additionally, the full power of railroads (in terms of logistics) wasn't unleashed until the 1920s. Why? The invention of the humble pallet. I highly recommend reading this [2].

> Today the closest analogue to the logic of the strategic bomber lies in the world of economics. I speak of sanctions.

I 100% agree: economic sanctions are violence and not that far removed from strategic bombing. It's honestly a little surprising to hear an American saying this.

Sanctions ultimately are a form of collective punishment and in many such circumstances we consider that a war crime for good reason. In the 1990s, then US Ambassador to the UN later Us Secretary of STate Madeleine Albright was quoted as saying [3]:

> "We have heard that half a million [Iraqi] children have died. I mean, that is more children than died in Hiroshima," Stahl said. "And, you know, is the price worth it?"

> "I think that is a very hard choice," Albright answered, "but the price, we think, the price is worth it."

The author then goes on to argue (which again is surprising) that sanctions are largely ineffective and will continue to be so in the case of Russia. 100% agree, which is why that even though Putin was and is the bad guy for an unjustifiable invasion of Ukraine, US policy towards Ukraine was completely reckless because we have no effective way to counter an opponent with a nuclear arsenal in armed conflict.

All of this was warned about in 2015 [4].

[1]: https://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-50-55-blu...

[2]: https://www.cabinetmagazine.org/issues/52/hodes.php

[3]: https://www.newsweek.com/watch-madeleine-albright-saying-ira...

[4]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#32
post #26
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how much can we even talk about collateral damage when almost all the enemy civilians support an aggressive war. I get that they're non-combatants, but they're not innocents. Especially when the "collateral damage" is in this case is "I can no longer buy iphone".

Imagine dropping a bomb on a shipping container of iPhones. What's the point? What objective does it serve? How does it contribute to the war effort? Considering the cost of the bomb, I think the expected value is rather likely to be negative.

In videogame lingo, sanctions are a debuff. You won't see it working directly, but it very much contributes.

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#33
post #2

So what's wrong with sanctions as an instrument of attrition?

The answer depends on whether or not you are on the receiving end (perhaps as part of an unfortunate "collateral" line in someone's XLS spreadsheet).

The crime and punishment issues are mostly solved for individuals and small groups. There is a good reason why in most societies the victim is not the one who decides the fate of the attacker — it is the job of the law. Sadly, this doesn't work at international scale. That is when large scale punitive operations take place. And then the other side responds with more violence.

In the end of this feedback loop we reach the point where 99% of the ones who suffer are collateral damage — from all sides. Is it inevitable? It seems so. No matter what happens next, someone has to pay, right?

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#34
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are punishing people for rolling poorly on the parental lottery. Some kid starving to death because of sanctions doesn't understand what's happening. Their parents will be too poor and hungry to meaningfully fight back against their leaders. It's only going to hurt the vulnerable people in a country - militaries and oligarchs will not be impacted unless you target them specifically and narrowly . Imagine if China…

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Where do you think the Chinese get food from?

Where do you think the Russians get food from?

The belief in sanctions is the belief that the dollar is the one world currency - the silver coin. It’s fixed exchange rate thinking long after that went away

All that needs to happen for people to be fed is for there to be a circular economy in agriculture that produces a vast surplus.

Both China and Russia can do that internally now and certainly between themselves.

China and Russia has no need to sell anything outside of China and Russia. A simple Yuan-Rouble floating exchange rate will work just fine.

The people that lose out are those that can no longer access Chinese and Russian output in return for mere electronic promises. That’s the net importers of the West.

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#35
I have two issues with this reasoning.

First, as a German (!), I always have a hard time with articles that claim bombing Germany in WW2 somehow wasn’t justified. What would have been the alternative? Leave the regime in power? Concede half or more of Europe? Shrug your shoulders and accept the industrial scale genocide? Note that almost the entire population was part of this murderous machine in some capacity, and to some extent willingly so. To have any hope of democratizing Germany at all, the defeat had to be total. I haven’t seen very credible evidence that this could have been accomplished with milder measures.

Second, there’s an important ethical difference between sanctions and strategic bombing. The attacker chooses what to bomb. With sanctions, the target nation can choose which sectors of their economy their limited resources keep going into. Yes, autocracies will reliably loot and starve their population for the benefit of the military and their political friends. But that’s still their choice, not ours, and I think that’s an important distinction in terms of the moral implications.

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#36
post #35

I have two issues with this reasoning. First, as a German (!), I always have a hard time with articles that claim bombing Germany in WW2 somehow wasn’t justified. What would have been the alternative? Leave the regime in power? Concede half or more of Europe? Shrug your shoulders and accept the industrial scale genocide? Note that almost the entire population was part of this murderous machine in some capacity, and t…

> I always have a hard time with articles that claim bombing Germany in WW2 somehow wasn’t justified. What would have bern the alternative?

There's a distinction between military action and indiscriminate bombing of civilian population centers (eg Dresden, Tokyo). "Strategic bombing" here specifically refers to a policy of total destruction that intentionally leads to massive civilian death. It's the same policy that led to the atomic bombs being dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

This isn't an argument against any form of bombing.

> With sanctions, the target nation can choose which sectors of their economy their limited resources keep going into

In some ways that's worse. Put it this way: who do you think is bearing the brunt of sanctions in Russia? Is it Putin and the oligarchs or the poor?

Not that I'm defending strategic bombing (I'm really not) but at least there's a chance you may take out noteworthy targets. With sanctions you definitely won't.

The whole idea idea of sanctions is twofold:

1. Starve the war machine of resources; and

2. Prompt the populace to take actions against their leadership.

The second has shown to be incredibly ineffective. The premise is a dangerous one too. Why? Because it's the same argument used to support terrorism.

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#37
post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are punishing people for rolling poorly on the parental lottery. Some kid starving to death because of sanctions doesn't understand what's happening. Their parents will be too poor and hungry to meaningfully fight back against their leaders. It's only going to hurt the vulnerable people in a country - militaries and oligarchs will not be impacted unless you target them specifically and narrowly . Imagine if China…

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Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#38
post #6
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the point of the article is that sanctions as an instrument of attrition have the same problems as strategic bombing as an instrument of attrition: it works, but causes a lot of collateral damage that doesn't contribute much to attrition, so if you hope to achieve quick results by turning the enemy's civilians against their military, you'll be disappointed.

I wonder how much can we even talk about collateral damage when almost all the enemy civilians support an aggressive war. I get that they're non-combatants, but they're not innocents. Especially when the "collateral damage" is in this case is "I can no longer buy iphone".

Civilians should not be dragged into it. Soldiers killing soldiers is one thing but civilians must not be dragged into it.

"but they're not innocents." ===> I'm wondering if those crazy bombers think the same as you do when killing/bombing "Civilians" instead or armed forces.

You logic was prevalent in feudal times. If someone attacked you, you'd wipe they whole city/area and their entire family tree just to make sure theree's nobody left to take revenge.

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#39
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder how much can we even talk about collateral damage when almost all the enemy civilians support an aggressive war. I get that they're non-combatants, but they're not innocents. Especially when the "collateral damage" is in this case is "I can no longer buy iphone".

Civilians should not be dragged into it. Soldiers killing soldiers is one thing but civilians must not be dragged into it. "but they're not innocents." ===> I'm wondering if those crazy bombers think the same as you do when killing/bombing "Civilians" instead or armed forces. You logic was prevalent in feudal times. If someone attacked you, you'd wipe they whole city/area and their entire family tree just to make sur…

No post body was provided.

Re: Sanctions and Strategic Bombing

#40
post #7

So what's the plan when China takes Taiwan?

The plan is we suck it up because there's absolutely nothing we can do about it. Why? Because China is a nuclear power. And unlike Russia, we are absolutely dependent on Chinese exports to a degree it would cripple us completely to place sweeping sanctions on China.

Yes we have a law saying we will defend Taiwan. No we actually won't. Because we can't.

It is worth noting that it isn't that easy to invade Taiwan. At its closest point, 21 miles separates England from France. On a clear day you can see the white cliffs of Dover from France. Yet that 21 mile gap has meant that the last time England was successfully invaded was almost 1000 years ago (in 1066 to be precise). For almost 5 years the Germans had uncontested control of Western Europe and there was absolutely nothing they could do about it.

From the other side, the D-Day invasion took 2+ years of planning and massive resources to cross the English Channel with sufficient force not to get immediately wiped out.

Chinca could probably do it but the cost would be incredibly high. Airlifting would take a lot and be vulnerable to air defenses. Sea is a much more practical option but vulnerable to many defenses too.

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