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Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

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Re: Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

#31
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

obviously they wouldn't refuse if they want to keep their job... return to office will be a very convenient way of laying off people without saying you're laying off people. remember an economic slowdown is underway for 2 quarters and will last for quite a bit more.

From people I've talked to the job market in parts of the tech industry still seems to be red hot. Everyone is having trouble hiring.

The tech sector still seems red hot, but the pivot from revenue growth at any cost to margin-focused growth is what's squeezing a lot of B2C companies. I think if you're a startup or late stage private company in B2B, you're probably doing alright if you were cautious and conservative in growing your costs.

If you look at a lot of the recent layoffs, most are in tech companies doing B2C rather than B2B.

Re: Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

#32

> Empty offices in city centers may be replaced by apartment buildings. “The end result is more balanced communities,” Mr. Florida said. “But—and it is a big but—the adjustment will be painful.” The institutional owners of property may end up taking a haircut. This ultimately means pension funds in large part. Alongside deglobalisation, renewables (with stranded assets) and creeping automation, I wonder what options…

>The institutional owners of property may end up taking a haircut.

This is exactly why Mayor Adams wants people to come back to the office in NYC. NYC derives a big chunk of change from taxing corporate offices, and if the value goes down then NYC loses out on a lot of money.

Re: Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

#33

That's one reason for sure, but even if my house was a 10 minute walk from the office, I'd still rather only go in for meetings. At home I have my own private office with a nice view. I have a nice set of speakers and can play any music I like. If I want to go for a walk, I'm in a quiet suburban neighborhood with hiking trails nearby. The kitchen is always stocked with snacks I like plus freshly prepared healthy lunc…

The magic of open space is the same for me... but without the "perks" (food is pretty horrible from the comment I have, and it's 1 hour of traffic jam to get there). All that to do Teams meeting at my desk, with the noise of my other colleagues also in call. That's, to put it simply, hell. And then you have to be under constant surveillance, "why do you leave so early?" (I've been there for 8 hours already, so, fuck…

There aren't any meeting rooms at your office? I think every place I've been, even the startups had some kind of conference call mic setup on the table, although I don't think every place had a cam. It's possible for the "room" to join the call and those who must join over video.

Re: Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

#34
post #29

In one of the meetings this week, we were talking about changing how a program works, to allow the user better access to the diagnostics information in the event of a hardware failure. When the program was first designed, the idea was that the program would exit, and the system would either take corrective action or restart. Easy, simple. Now, if the program continues to run in the event of hardware failures, we need…

> But nowadays, you basically just need power and Internet, which is widely available to most workers at home anyway.

The power and Internet part is easy - a quiet room can be a challenge for some though. At one point in the pandemic, a friend tried coming over and working in my basement because her family was so distracting at home (2 parents + 3 kids in a 3-bedroom house with virtual work and school and a baby crying, etc). I'm told homebuyers are emphasizing having enough space for home offices these days, but that's easier to attain for some than others, especially with the run-up in housing prices over the past couple of years.

So yeah, for some people it's easy ... for others, not so much.

Re: Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

#36

That's one reason for sure, but even if my house was a 10 minute walk from the office, I'd still rather only go in for meetings. At home I have my own private office with a nice view. I have a nice set of speakers and can play any music I like. If I want to go for a walk, I'm in a quiet suburban neighborhood with hiking trails nearby. The kitchen is always stocked with snacks I like plus freshly prepared healthy lunc…

> My commute is less than 30 minutes (one-way) and is a pretty pleasant drive.... it takes an hour out of my day, but it's not the primary reason I don't want to go to the office.

Focusing on "reasons why I don't like the office" is missing the point, IMO. A lot of folks are betting on the long-term results of a short-term dislocation, but ignoring why things were as they were before the dislocation. It's sort of like the commentariat who come up with hot-takes in the aftermath of a natural disaster, and conclude "life will never be the same"...but within a few years life is, almost always, pretty much the same.

Yes, there are obvious upsides to working from home, but there are also fundamental reasons that we used to go into the office, and dismissing them all as "the old way of doing it" is facile. I think, in the "long" run (i.e. the next few years), the same forces that led humans to form cities throughout all of human existence will prevail.

Said differently: offices sucked before the pandemic too. The technology existed for remote work before the pandemic, too. Yet even in the most remote-friendly work environments, we went out of our way to make time for in-person communication. There was no sudden shift in technology or quality here. We did some short-term things to deal with a short-term circumstance, and now we're seeing the hangover of those choices. But the forces at play are largely unchanged.

If I had to wager, I'd bet that being in the office will be how you get noticed and advance in your career. Making on-site visits will be how you get the sale. Having in-person communication will offer productivity gains over video chat. The incentives to in-person communication will therefore accumulate over time, until we're back to where we started.

Re: Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

#38
post #8

With high cost buildings in NYC it would seem companies would be happy to sell their billion dollar building and make like 2 small satellite offices closer to where the people live -- one say in eastern New Jersey and one in Brooklyn when you need to meet with clients or have big meetings or for the people who need to have a workspace away from home and save a ton of money having a large percentage of the company wor…

The cost difference in Brooklyn is quickly evaporating, especially anywhere a very large company might be looking for office space (downtown).

The NYC subway system doesn't go to Jersey, it's often subway => commuter train, you're lucky if it doesn't involve a bus at some point.

Re: Dreaded commute to the city is keeping offices mostly empty

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From people I've talked to the job market in parts of the tech industry still seems to be red hot. Everyone is having trouble hiring.

The tech sector still seems red hot, but the pivot from revenue growth at any cost to margin-focused growth is what's squeezing a lot of B2C companies. I think if you're a startup or late stage private company in B2B, you're probably doing alright if you were cautious and conservative in growing your costs. If you look at a lot of the recent layoffs, most are in tech companies doing B2C rather than B2B.

B2C reducing expenses means B2B reducing expenses, just on a lag. duration of that lag is anybody's guess; mine is 3+-1 quarter depending on purchasing cycles and license renewals.
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