31–40 of 65 posts
The 2020/2021 bubble is going to look like a big missed opportunity for the crypto industry to get Tether's books right. It might have been their one and only chance to find enough dollars to actually make their backing 1:1. Now that that bubble is in the past and future bubbles are at the mercy of both public sentiment and macroeconomic conditions, Tether just has to hope that a majority of USDT stays "on the sideli…
I feel like Tether wanted to prove, once again, that the entire system is illusory anyway just like how the Bretton Woods system ended in 1971 (no more convertibility of USD into gold). As long as people use USD effectively, who cares whether or not it is backed by actual gold?
Because unlike all crypto coin asserts, its backed with guns.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think that’s probably true for some amount of correction, but presumably there’s some amount where the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze anymore, right? A quick google search says there’s 14b tether in circulation - if that’s true and it falls 50%, who is going to put in multiple billions to try to prop it up?
If tether goes down, so does bitcoin. This post may as well be about bitcxoin going to zero then
Doubt that. I’m sure almost anyone here could wow me with technical reasons why they are correlated…
In the end because this is all illusionary and not backed by anything tangible, it’s faith-based speculation.
When Tether pops, Bitcoin probably goes up. No one will have learned any lessons, just that they picked they wrong one, but this one over here is “safe”. It’s all what people can be made to believe, and I’m pretty sure the average crypto gambler can be made to believe lots of things that aren’t rational. Who hasn’t seen that themselves?
As much as I have always had zero faith in Tether since the beginning I've also been reading about how it's going to blow up for about just as long. Here is an article from 5 years ago https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-t...
That said, my vague understanding of Tether is that since it's completely opaque and basically rigged, rather than collapsing entirely, the controllers of the "currency" can make it gradually harder for just select customers to remove their money and so support its apparent value without it seeming to collapse (I remember an article a while about a guy who couldn't redeem his tether for reasons unspecified by whatever the exchange, etc).
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> “The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” I'm pretty sure if they had damning evidence, a single hedge fund could single-handedly force the market to collapse in a couple weeks. Keep in mind hedge funds can manage billions of dollars, cryptocurrency market caps are manipulated and the true order book depth is much smaller, and many cryptocurrency people are trading 100x leveraged perpetual…
> I'm pretty sure if they had damning evidence, a single hedge fund could single-handedly force the market to collapse in a couple weeks. Exactly, like they did with GME. Oh wait.
As much as I have always had zero faith in Tether since the beginning I've also been reading about how it's going to blow up for about just as long. Here is an article from 5 years ago https://hackernoon.com/what-will-happen-when-the-shit-hits-t...
No issue with the author but I wish I could filter HN to not have crypto related news here. It's really polluting my tech related feeds.
Does anyone else not care about cold takes like this? Even if you know something is going to crash, the important bit is knowing when. Guess what, Google, Facebook, and Netflix aren’t going to be around in a trillion years. Shocking, I know.
Not everyone is just trying to trade and ride waves for profit, a lot of people are just putting their life savings in crypto and holding. They should understand the tether risk before doing so.
The Curve "3crv" pool (which allows large volume low slippage conversion between USDT, USDC, and DAI) has been at >50% USDT for a long time, going up to as high as 80% when people are truly spooked: https://curve.fi/3pool
HN posters have successfully predicted 9 out of the last 0 Tether blow ups. More seriously, it's mostly seething while reposting the same stuff with this article potentially holding the record for being short enough to not even repeat most of the usual let alone add anything compared to the pages and pages of previous posts on the topic[0]. Which doesn't mean it won't blow up, just that those discussions are particul…
People predicting stock market declines have thus far been predicting something which declines and then eventually bounces back.
This will not happen to Tether - when it blows up, like Mt. Gox, or a host of other crypto scams have - it will not be coming back.
As someone else here said, markets can remain irrational longer than you or I can remain solvent. Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme collapsed in 2008 not due to Harry Markopolos talking to the SEC in 2000 (or after) - it collapsed because everyone started withdrawing their money at once, and then the whole house of cards collapsed.
I feel like Tether wanted to prove, once again, that the entire system is illusory anyway just like how the Bretton Woods system ended in 1971 (no more convertibility of USD into gold). As long as people use USD effectively, who cares whether or not it is backed by actual gold?
>As long as people use USD effectively, who cares whether or not it is backed by actual gold? Because unlike all crypto coin asserts, its backed with guns.
It's true that value is set by supply and demand for both crypto and USD, but there's a key difference.
Yes, crypto and USD both have a limited supply (at any given time). But the demand for crypto can fall to zero with the only real-world change being a change in people's feelings. But USD demand is more than just feelings. There is a floor in the demand for USD because anyone who wants to live or do business in the United States are obligated by law (and ultimately, guns) to pay taxes in USD. For this reason, USD demand can't go to zero until the entire US economy collapses (and with the aforementioned guns, US economic interests will likely be protected).
Obviously that floor in demand doesn't represent 100% of the demand for USD, but it's a floor on which a lot of confidence and subsequent demand can be built.