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Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

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Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#31

Post by newsclues »

lm28469 wrote: post #23
verisimi wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right - but also wrong. Governments built the roads - other solutions are conceivable. Tax payers paid once for the roads to be built, and are now paying for roads to made unusable for cars (lane restrictions, pedestrianisation, etc). That's a waste. Did you know that electric cars were very popular 100 years ago - but because of the oil industry + government, they were quashed? Government waves through unacce…

> Did you know that electric cars were very popular 100 years ago - but because of the oil industry + government, they were quashed? Er this is extremely simplistic. Electricity wasn't as common as now and battery tech was extremely shitty (requiring maintenance every few days, handling acids, &c.)

ICE vehicles are and were extremely shitty as well.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#32

Post by verisimi »

lm28469 wrote: post #23
verisimi wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right - but also wrong. Governments built the roads - other solutions are conceivable. Tax payers paid once for the roads to be built, and are now paying for roads to made unusable for cars (lane restrictions, pedestrianisation, etc). That's a waste. Did you know that electric cars were very popular 100 years ago - but because of the oil industry + government, they were quashed? Government waves through unacce…

> Did you know that electric cars were very popular 100 years ago - but because of the oil industry + government, they were quashed? Er this is extremely simplistic. Electricity wasn't as common as now and battery tech was extremely shitty (requiring maintenance every few days, handling acids, &c.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_electric_vehicl...

"In 1828, the Hungarian priest and physicist Ányos Jedlik invented an early type of electric motor, and created a small model car powered by his new motor."

1828!!

"Rechargeable batteries that provided a viable means for storing electricity on board a vehicle did not come into being until 1859, with the invention of the lead–acid battery by French physicist Gaston Planté.[17][18] Camille Alphonse Faure, another French scientist, significantly improved the design of the battery in 1881; his improvements greatly increased the capacity of such batteries and led directly to their manufacture on an industrial scale."

"Electric battery-powered taxis became available at the end of the 19th century."

"To overcome the limited operating range of electric vehicles, and the lack of recharging infrastructure, an exchangeable battery service was first proposed as early as 1896.[41] The concept was first put into practice by Hartford Electric Light Company through the GeVeCo battery service and initially available for electric trucks."

It was viable technology!

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#33

Post by newsclues »

lm28469 wrote: post #29
raspberry1337 wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I stopped respecting the UN when they said they criticized Elon Musk for not giving them 6 billion dollars so that they could "solve world hunger". That's about as much as the state of Sweden donates to poverty every single year, and that is just Sweden alone. The total amount of charity donations worldwide is in the trillions of dollars yet there's always just more required. Bureaucrats with humanities degrees at th…

> I stopped respecting the UN when they said they criticized Elon Musk The UN isn't perfect but it sure as hell better than no communication between countries at all. Elon Musk is insignificant compared to that, "I stopped respecting the biggest world forum when they criticised an egomaniac entrepreneur" jeez... > Bureaucrats with humanities degrees at the UN don't solve problems, if they were solved, their jobs woul…

Have you considered solving problems is hard and ends the gravy train, and if you get an opportunity to personally benefit, most people given the chance take the easy personal profits rather than to go down fighting the system?

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#34

Post by cryptica »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #22

> broken perception of risk based on “optimism, underestimation and invincibility" How about artificially low interest rates? An interest rate is exactly the coordination between risk and time, with a low interest rate you're subsidizing stupidity and wastefulness, and with its concommittant inflation you're forcing people into making those investments to stay afloat. Maybe if we weren't goosing the interest rate low…

This hits the nail on the head. Also, all the money-printing creates extreme market distortions, inequality and injustice. It greatly increases the role of luck and social connections in financial success (due to Cantillon effects) and therefore those who end up at the top, blinded by their extreme survivor bias, tend to be overly optimistic about reality and so they are among the worse qualified to be making complex decisions on a global scale which affect the majority (who are non-outliers by definition)... I doubt anyone is qualified to be making those decisions, let alone extreme outliers who don't fully understand the magnitude of the problems.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#35

Post by refurb »

blueflow wrote: post #10
verisimi wrote: post #3

Coming from the UN, we already know what the answer will be. More governance, more/better management of risk by the UN that is then delegated to its administrative regions (the US, EU, etc). This is because as long as we are talking about risk, this plays into the hands of a global governance structure. All risks should be planned for and managed - I mean the covid response was fantastic, right? What was wrong was no…

> let local people decide for themselves what they want to do - use leaded petrol - build fridges using HCFCs - burn trash This stuff had to be forbidden by the government to make it stop. The UN might be some corrupt stuff, but the point of reducing government at all is nonsense. People on their own won't stop doing harmful things if they dont suffer the consequences themself.

So if let's say, Myanmar doesn't stop using CFCs. What's your solution? Send in some Blue Helmets to enforce global law? And what if they start shooting back? You want to send your son or daughter there?

And not to mention the politics of rich countries sending soldiers into poor countries to enforce rules. Colonialism 2.0. "It's the developed world's obligations to drag the uncivilized nations into the the 21st century"?

Sounds familiar.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#36

Post by TheSpiceIsLife »

newsclues wrote: post #28
temp8964 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also do remember WHO played political game on the side of China at the beginning of the pandemic. That’s one of the reasons we got in this new SARS.

And remember that western leaders and elites went along with Chinese leaders!

Not all of them.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#37

Post by jolux »

throwawaymaths wrote: post #22

> broken perception of risk based on “optimism, underestimation and invincibility" How about artificially low interest rates? An interest rate is exactly the coordination between risk and time, with a low interest rate you're subsidizing stupidity and wastefulness, and with its concommittant inflation you're forcing people into making those investments to stay afloat. Maybe if we weren't goosing the interest rate low…

The problem is that economic growth is extremely important to developing economies as well. It’s one thing to say we should limit growth, or deprioritize it, or whatever, but in practice this means forcing poor countries to accept lower standards of living. That’s the real trade-off here.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#38

Post by blueflow »

refurb wrote: post #35
blueflow wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> let local people decide for themselves what they want to do - use leaded petrol - build fridges using HCFCs - burn trash This stuff had to be forbidden by the government to make it stop. The UN might be some corrupt stuff, but the point of reducing government at all is nonsense. People on their own won't stop doing harmful things if they dont suffer the consequences themself.

So if let's say, Myanmar doesn't stop using CFCs. What's your solution? Send in some Blue Helmets to enforce global law? And what if they start shooting back? You want to send your son or daughter there? And not to mention the politics of rich countries sending soldiers into poor countries to enforce rules. Colonialism 2.0. "It's the developed world's obligations to drag the uncivilized nations into the the 21st cent…

A country emitting enough HCFCs to wipe the ozone layer within a decade is a threat to the security of every other nation on earth (due to increasing ionizing radiation). So yes. Economic sanctions and military intervention.

I don't have kids, but i am in military age ("Wehrfähiges Alter") myself.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#39

Post by phkahler »

jolux wrote: post #37
throwawaymaths wrote: post #22

> broken perception of risk based on “optimism, underestimation and invincibility" How about artificially low interest rates? An interest rate is exactly the coordination between risk and time, with a low interest rate you're subsidizing stupidity and wastefulness, and with its concommittant inflation you're forcing people into making those investments to stay afloat. Maybe if we weren't goosing the interest rate low…

The problem is that economic growth is extremely important to developing economies as well. It’s one thing to say we should limit growth, or deprioritize it, or whatever, but in practice this means forcing poor countries to accept lower standards of living. That’s the real trade-off here.

Growth can't continue indefinitely. In fact a lot of growth today is actually fudging the numbers to make them look good.

Re: Humanity’s broken risk perception is reversing global progress

#40

Post by nonrandomstring »

heavenlyblue wrote: post #26
verisimi wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You say remove - I say rollback. The sentiment should be that we have less government - we should empower individuals, not monolithic state apparatus. It would ideally be rolled back slowly, keeping a steady focus where governmental power is continuously eroded. However, I also think that things are so wildly out of kilter now, that it is far more likely that things could become even more tumultuous. I even think the…

> we should empower individuals Does that mean that I now have to spend my time in the evening doing the "monolithic state apparatus'" job instead of going for a meal with my partner?

> Does that mean that I now have to spend my time in the evening doing the "monolithic state apparatus'" job instead of going for a meal with my partner?

Yes. Because we are all responsible. But guess what, you'd be sharing the job with 7 billion other people, so the total workload would be like 5 minutes on a Thursday morning every other month. Could you spare that?

Please read a book called "Leviathan" [1] by Thomas Hobbes and maybe a little of Jean Jacques Rousseau's "The Social Contract" [2] to balance it up.

The state is not your enemy, but also it is not your nanny, there to wipe your bottom and hold your feeding bottle because you "pay taxes".

There's plenty of time for dining out and being a responsible, participating citizen.

[1] https://www.gutenberg.org/files/3207/3207-h/3207-h.htm

[2] https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/46333

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