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The Great Tech War Of 2012

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Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#31

Post by cube13 »

reemrevnivek wrote: post #29

The vertical control of Apple (most notably) as well as Amazon and Google is almost complete. The author noted that they don't have: 1. Billing/banking control - Purchases on all three go through credit cards, where a portion gets siphoned off. 2. Internet access control - Apple has a lot of clout, and can do basically whatever they want, but they're still limited by the ISPs and telecos. I really hope to see these c…

I don't think that any of the three are willing to try to integrate billing directly instead of relying on Paypal, Visa, etc. It's a regulatory minefield between all the world governments, and the % that the payment processors take is probably very much worth the costs that would otherwise be taken from keeping such a system working.

I'm sure Apple and Google have explored it, but in the end, found that the current payment processors provide both a level of service(Visa's payment backend, as far as I can tell, has never suffered non-scheduled downtime) and help avoid all the regulatory pitfalls that it's worth the price.

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#32

Post by Silhouette »

johnyzee wrote: post #30
redthrowaway wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Google has a search engine, an e-mail service, a video sharing service, and a much more successful advertising model built around them. You're forgetting Android. There are some other services I would include in with their top-tier ones (maps being a good example), but the omission of Android is fairly glaring.

GP also failed to mention Amazon's little side business, AWS. More than anything else, AWS makes Amazon one of the most visionary and capable companies in the world to me, before even getting into rolling out Kindle and pretty much creating the e-book market overnight.

I didn't forget to mention Android; which other mobile OS did anyone think I meant?

As for AWS, you hit the nail on the head: I think it's Amazon's little side business. I haven't seen any detailed figures about where their income comes from, but I'm guessing AWS is almost lost in the noise compared to what they make on retail directly and via their marketplace.

Moreover, I think cloud services is a much easier market for others to attack, and obviously some already do. In contrast, there isn't really any other global retail giant on the Web today and the barrier to becoming one is prohibitively high for just about anyone.

Finally, I'm not a great believer in everything-in-the-cloud anyway. Too many people have made grand claims about how security/reliability/whatever is improved if you use cloud services compared to doing things in house, how much money you can save, how much faster you can be up and running, yada yada. And yet, we've seen numerous major outages now from even the big players, and plenty more complaints about pricing, lack of flexibility, etc. on top of those.

Basically, the cloud services emperor might not be naked, but he's close to indecent. My money is on the company that utterly dominates on-line retail, and if its internal services architecture brings in a little on the side as well, great.

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#33

Post by Silhouette »

FilterJoe wrote: post #25
Silhouette wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For all the hype etc, I'm not sure how much any of these companies have really done that is worthy of positive attention for several years now. They obviously have a few big hits, but they all have at least as many failures and/or obvious competitive weaknesses. Apple have no doubt moved or effectively created entire markets and business models over the years. The iPod, iPhone and iPad have changed consumption patter…

I disagree with your assessment that "not one of [Google's] three positions is easily defensible in the face of determined competition, and I suspect it is more by luck (and inertia) than judgement that they have avoided this fate so far." There has been vigorous competition for search, including many billions spent by Microsoft on Bing. Microsoft literally tried to pay people to use their search. Microsoft continues…

Of course, Google also literally try to pay people to use their search, to the tune of many millions in Mozilla's bank account.

Still, I think Google's main risk with search is that they have become victims of their own success: when you dominate the market as heavily as they have done for several years, everyone wants to be high up in your rankings, and people are constantly finding new ways to game the system. Even with all they've done about pseudo-legitimate but probably unwelcome sites like content farms and shopping comparison services, there has definitely been an increase for the past year or two in the frequency with which I try to look something up on Google and give up because what they're giving me back is completely unhelpful.

When you're stagnating like that, keeping up in the race against SEO blackhats but not really pulling away from them, the market is ripe for disruption by someone who does things in a different and (to users) more helpful way, just as Google basically wiped out everyone else with PageRank and the related ideas a few years ago. I'm not disputing that Google are still dominant today and no-one else is really giving them serious competition right now, but as I said before, I think that's more by luck than judgement on Google's part.

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#34

Post by evanjacobs »

I'm really surprised that there was almost no mention about the competition between these companies for hiring engineers. If there is indeed a "tech war" coming (and I believe there is) then the company with the biggest and best army of engineers will win and there is a fierce competition among these companies to build those armies.

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#35

Post by mediaman »

redthrowaway wrote: post #26
exit wrote: post #19

> Zuckerberg is even maturing into a capable presenter. Compared to Bezos, Cook, and Page, he's most adept at mimicking Jobs's singular skills, and comes off as infectiously visionary when unveiling a new product. really?

I had the same reaction, but you have to keep in mind the company he's in. Cook's iPhone presentation struck me as fine but uninspiring, I've never seen Bezos give a presentation, and Larry's... not good in public. I still can't stand Zuck, but at least he hasn't had any more "hoody moments".

I watched Bezos unveil the Fire, and I wasn't really impressed with his presentation skills. Not nearly as good a story teller as Jobs.

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#36

Post by chris_dcosta »

Most of what Facebook and Google do is thanks to advertising revenue, with variations on the theme.

If something comes along to take that away, a start-up with a new business model, then data becomes the thing that has value for them. Here, privacy issues get racked up so both Google and Facebook would start to look shaky if that happened too, and there are signs.

That's where Amazon and Apple are both superior. They've never been based solely based on an advertising business model, if they get revenue with iAds it's a bonus. It's the fact that they control their market places which is important. And they have what people want to buy.

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#37

Post by tsotha »

YetAnotherAlias wrote: post #21

I guess it is not surprising anymore, but I couldn't help wondering about Microsoft being left out of consideration. Would love to here thoughts about how, and if, MS will compete among these companies.

The xbox puts Microsoft in a better position than Apple for control of the television. I don't think you can count them out at all.

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#38

Post by Apocryphon »

revorad wrote: post #4
fleitz wrote: post #2

And while these 4 duke it out a new competitor will emerge and change the game completely.

And that's the reason, reading story after story about the big 4 on HN is getting so boring to me. No doubt they make amazing products, but these are giant corporations now. Siri, G+, Timeline, Kindle Fire are all fascinating products, but they don't excite me nearly as much as a simple app made by a fledgling two person startup.

I'm not even sure if characterizing this is a four horse race is accurate. The article acknowledges the existence of other giants such as Microsoft and HP, but state they are behind the times and struggling to catch up. But are there any other rising powerhouses out there besides the four horsemen? eBay?

Re: The Great Tech War Of 2012

#39

Post by Apocryphon »

YetAnotherAlias wrote: post #21

I guess it is not surprising anymore, but I couldn't help wondering about Microsoft being left out of consideration. Would love to here thoughts about how, and if, MS will compete among these companies.

MS is definitely a competitor, but the article seems to be saying that they lack the energy and freshness of these four.
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