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Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

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Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#31

Post by jelliclesfarm »

mullingitover wrote: post #17
kurthr wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry I just broke out into laughter... you have to fight the FARMERS for it. The people in those cities (with their green lawns, golf courses, cemetaries, and fountains) just get what's left. Maybe they get 10-20% of the Colorado flows?

Plus, for all the noise farmers make, in California agriculture's contribution to the state GDP is fairly trivial, in the low single digits. At the scale this lithium mining operation could work, I imagine they would massively outbid the farmers for the water. Indeed, if we gave up on farming in the area, we could cut an aqueduct from the Sea of Cortez and restore the Salton Sea to a thriving inland riviera. The real…

Upwards of 350 billion as an industry(including education, food industry, transportation, logistics, ag inputs jobs that rely on California ag) isn’t trivial.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#33

Post by ggm »

usrn wrote: post #29
ggm wrote: post #20

The last 5 to 10 years has had a succession of doom-sayers riding the Paul Ehrlich line to "we will run out" -And as Julian Simons bet [0] showed, it may be true but it's based on a false premise of supply chain logistics, mining and planning. In absolute terms yes, there is a finite amount of lithium in the crust. Transmutation aside, What we see in real life is unequal distribution and then bad modelling on assumpt…

>replace all ICE with EV I'm honestly not convinced this will happen. I think the ratio will get a lot more even but I highly doubt ICE will be replaced. Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases. Already it's much easier to grow microalgae than it was during the first government experiments in the 60s. As these technologies improv…

I think you're right. ICE will remain, however niche most consumers think it is. Offroad, towing, agriculture, specialist/collector vehicles.

And thats after a 20+ year transition, based on the average vs maximum realistic lifetime of vehicles either on the road, or soon to be.

But for liquid energy transport, I think LNG with H2 injection, and Ammonia will fit the energy density niche. I don't see deep well petrochemicals as a sustaining model of energy shipment, if we move the economy away from them for transport.

All this is very much "after my lifetime" -Much as my parents lived through the transition of horse power to gas engines, and I was on the cusp of steam trains to diesel and electric, some things happen in timescales beyond my lifetime

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#34

Post by ggm »

AtlasBarfed wrote: post #27
ggm wrote: post #20

The last 5 to 10 years has had a succession of doom-sayers riding the Paul Ehrlich line to "we will run out" -And as Julian Simons bet [0] showed, it may be true but it's based on a false premise of supply chain logistics, mining and planning. In absolute terms yes, there is a finite amount of lithium in the crust. Transmutation aside, What we see in real life is unequal distribution and then bad modelling on assumpt…

Sodium Ion batteries are approaching somewhere in the 120-160 wh/kg in production, per CATL. I believe 200 wh/kg is on the industry "roadmap" in 3-5 years. I believe Sodium Ion is like LFP in its safety with thermal runaway, so it, like LFP, doesn't require as much cooling and equipment overhead so its Cell-to-Module, or even better, Cell-to-Pack is bettery than cobalt/nickel li-ion chemistries. A sodium ion battery…

I managed my lifestyle to need The strongest case they have, is that all of us want the freedom of not being constrained by range, however rarely we use it. Somehow the 45min recharge ruins the experience. I personally think battery swap was a model which got us there but Musk drove the (current) industry to another place, and nobody in the west is seriously offering it, outside of special needs like buses and trucks. It's alive and well in the e-scooter space in much of Asia.

If your life involves driving the birdsville track every day, you are not the target of energy transition to batteries.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#35

Post by JumpCrisscross »

usrn wrote: post #29
ggm wrote: post #20

The last 5 to 10 years has had a succession of doom-sayers riding the Paul Ehrlich line to "we will run out" -And as Julian Simons bet [0] showed, it may be true but it's based on a false premise of supply chain logistics, mining and planning. In absolute terms yes, there is a finite amount of lithium in the crust. Transmutation aside, What we see in real life is unequal distribution and then bad modelling on assumpt…

>replace all ICE with EV I'm honestly not convinced this will happen. I think the ratio will get a lot more even but I highly doubt ICE will be replaced. Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases. Already it's much easier to grow microalgae than it was during the first government experiments in the 60s. As these technologies improv…

> highly doubt ICE will be replaced

I think it will. For cars and trucks, at least.

There is a massive recurring cost to maintaining the refining and distribution infrastructure for gasoline, to say nothing of developing, building and selling a new vehicle. All of these systems have been built for scale. When demand dips below the level to maintain them, they become obsolete. At that point, one must build new infrastructure at the smaller scale, which, why?

There will still be ICE cars for enthusiasts. But you’ll have to special order the fuel at expense, have replacement parts custom built, all of which makes it infeasible for general use. (I’m expecting within ten years to see gas stations closures stranding isolated communities, with the phenomenon becoming commonplace by 2040.)

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#36

Post by AtlasBarfed »

ggm wrote: post #34
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sodium Ion batteries are approaching somewhere in the 120-160 wh/kg in production, per CATL. I believe 200 wh/kg is on the industry "roadmap" in 3-5 years. I believe Sodium Ion is like LFP in its safety with thermal runaway, so it, like LFP, doesn't require as much cooling and equipment overhead so its Cell-to-Module, or even better, Cell-to-Pack is bettery than cobalt/nickel li-ion chemistries. A sodium ion battery…

I managed my lifestyle to need The strongest case they have, is that all of us want the freedom of not being constrained by range, however rarely we use it. Somehow the 45min recharge ruins the experience. I personally think battery swap was a model which got us there but Musk drove the (current) industry to another place, and nobody in the west is seriously offering it, outside of special needs like buses and trucks…

The long haul people should be served by the 100 mile PHEV.

the 230 WH/kg should enable the 100 mile PHEV I think, although I haven't done the math on that.

I'm in the midwest, and while superchargers will probably take care of my needs (I don't tow), but PHEVs should serve all those people.

A 400 mile LFP should be doable for the pickup truck when we hit 260 wh/kg, maybe 500 mile. And if Li-Sulfer or SSB hits, then those people will be served all-electric.

The infrastructure will come around. And recharge times are something that when viewed from a total systems level with home charging is actually less than gassing up, and when chargers are available basically in every parking lot.

The fact that the fringe cases are hyped up is just astroturfing, and it is a symptom of a dying campaign. The economics are behind alternative energy and BEVs, there's nothing big oil can do anymore. From here the vehicles fall under price points that ICEs will never compete with, and even the "middle used market" may get chased out by cheaper chinese entrants.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#37

Post by Retric »

ggm wrote: post #33
usrn wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>replace all ICE with EV I'm honestly not convinced this will happen. I think the ratio will get a lot more even but I highly doubt ICE will be replaced. Especially as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases the economic viability of reducing it back into hydrocarbons increases. Already it's much easier to grow microalgae than it was during the first government experiments in the 60s. As these technologies improv…

I think you're right. ICE will remain, however niche most consumers think it is. Offroad, towing, agriculture, specialist/collector vehicles. And thats after a 20+ year transition, based on the average vs maximum realistic lifetime of vehicles either on the road, or soon to be. But for liquid energy transport, I think LNG with H2 injection, and Ammonia will fit the energy density niche. I don't see deep well petroche…

Niche ICE run into a refueling logistical issues. It’s possible to get gas cheaply in large part because there is a vast amount of infrastructure devoted to extracting, refining, and distributing it. Gas prices in 1913 where the equivalent of $9.29/gallon without any special taxes and it gets worse the further back you go.

EV’s got to skip that growing pain because they could piggyback on electrical infrastructure.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#38

Post by themitigating »

Retric wrote: post #37
ggm wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're right. ICE will remain, however niche most consumers think it is. Offroad, towing, agriculture, specialist/collector vehicles. And thats after a 20+ year transition, based on the average vs maximum realistic lifetime of vehicles either on the road, or soon to be. But for liquid energy transport, I think LNG with H2 injection, and Ammonia will fit the energy density niche. I don't see deep well petroche…

Niche ICE run into a refueling logistical issues. It’s possible to get gas cheaply in large part because there is a vast amount of infrastructure devoted to extracting, refining, and distributing it. Gas prices in 1913 where the equivalent of $9.29/gallon without any special taxes and it gets worse the further back you go. EV’s got to skip that growing pain because they could piggyback on electrical infrastructure.

The existing infrastructure of electricity, excluding building charging stations and the possibility of transmission upgrades, is why I believe in EVs instead of Hydrogen.

Wouldn't the cost of building a new Hydrogen setup equivalent to gasoline be insane? You can't retrofit gas stations that easily since the tanks weren't meant to hold a gas. I suppose they could add Hydrogen storage to existing gas stations but you still need central distributions and another set of trucks to bring it out.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#39

Post by themitigating »

ggm wrote: post #34
AtlasBarfed wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sodium Ion batteries are approaching somewhere in the 120-160 wh/kg in production, per CATL. I believe 200 wh/kg is on the industry "roadmap" in 3-5 years. I believe Sodium Ion is like LFP in its safety with thermal runaway, so it, like LFP, doesn't require as much cooling and equipment overhead so its Cell-to-Module, or even better, Cell-to-Pack is bettery than cobalt/nickel li-ion chemistries. A sodium ion battery…

I managed my lifestyle to need The strongest case they have, is that all of us want the freedom of not being constrained by range, however rarely we use it. Somehow the 45min recharge ruins the experience. I personally think battery swap was a model which got us there but Musk drove the (current) industry to another place, and nobody in the west is seriously offering it, outside of special needs like buses and trucks…

You still have that freedom you just have to wait a little longer. I do however see your point, it's probably the reason in my area pickup trucks are so popular though rarely used. People want the ability to haul drywall, just in case, it makes you feel like you are independent and can contribute even if it's rarely used.

Re: Lithium drilling advances at the Salton Sea

#40

Post by themitigating »

All this talk about Lithium feels like it's describing a new destructive force in the environment but won't this replace/reduce oil extraction?

The Exxon Valdez, Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and I'm sure many other smaller disasters happened due to oil. I would even add in both gulf wars which costs massive amounts of money, resources, and lives wouldn't have happened if the US didn't have a vested interest in oil.

As long as Lithium doesn't cause the same issues isn't that an improvement?

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