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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#31

Post by otherme123 »

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

Maybe Zelenskyy doesn't like thousand of Ukraines dying for some inflated ego, potentially millions. That solution, and specially if acompanied with guarantees of no further agressions if Ukraine doesn't enter NATO or EU, is a win for the country, and a pyrric victory for Putin: his credibility is gone forever, and all he got is a small piece of terrain. Enough to sell internally as a win, but hardly anywhere else.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#32

Post by tablespoon »

CodeGlitch wrote: post #18

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

> Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity.

I doubt Ukraine will surrender as long as it can supply its forces with food, drinking water, and ammo.

> As it stands the West can do nothing.

The West can do a lot of things that it chooses not to do out of fear. IMHO one of the biggest mistakes it has made has been to be very, very clear about what it won't do, while letting the Russians be very, very unclear about what it won't do. The result has been the Russian leadership is not afraid, and has taken advantage of the freedom that affords to bomb the shit out of Ukraine.

If NATO had massed soldiers in Poland in January and been deliberately ambiguous about its intentions, it's quite possible that Russia might not have invaded Ukraine at all (and then mocked the NATO by saying "LOL guys, we were really just doing exercises").

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#33

Post by polishdude20 »

ncr100 wrote: post #9
disambiguation wrote: post #2

* Community prediction.. This is basically a survey.

Not so basic. Survey with the predictors (humans) being ranked in their impact on the conclusion based on their historical prediction success.

Ah so the better you do in previous surveys, the more weight it puts into your prediction?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#34

Post by babyshake »

rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

Prediction markets for real money that relate to violent outcomes are a very dangerous territory ethically. You could bet the Kyiv will fall and then provide support or resources to the Russian forces, for example. A more practical example would be something like an assassination prediction.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#35

Post by ryeights »

rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

Does PredictIt make markets on the outcomes of military conflicts? That would pose some interesting ethical dilemmas...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#36

Post by InTheArena »

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons.

It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain - see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4wRdoWpw0w for a good obvious breakdown. But they also dramatically underestimated the morale of Ukrainians and also badly miscalculated NATO's response. NATO is flooding UKR now with drones, anti-tank misles and surface to air missles.

They also have failed to have clear armor and air supremacy. They have fed some of their most "elite" VDV units into a meat grinder by sending them directly into Kyiv without any support, under the thesis that the Ukrainians would leave them uncontested, or where not able to maintain a reasonable response.

Nevermind that Ukraine is mobilizing quickly (pre-war calculations where 30 days to build a effective force), while 75% of Russia's strike forces are in theater, and 95% are committed to battle.

Because of all this - Russia is in a no-win scenario. To hit their goals will result in sanctions staying in place - and eventually destroying the Russian economy or alternatively leaving them as a vassal state of China. If they retreat, they may save their army, avoid a vietnam scenario, but Putin will loose face, and Demcoratic forces will be revitalized inside of Russia.

Or they just stay where they are at. Inching ever close to Kyiv, but never winning any strategic victory.

Forces are pushing towards stasis right now.

I'd never bet on it - it's disrespectful to the dead and those fighting for their futures, and there are armies in the south that are a big problem - but I don't see a path for Russia to get what it wants. The question is how long will the sunk cost fallacy rule?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#37

Post by gremlinsinc »

deutschew wrote: post #6
amriksohata wrote: post #3

The Taliban took 2 weeks to take over Afghanistan with little resistance in comparison. Both Ukraine and Afghanistan have similar land in sqm and population sizes. Why does anyone expect Ukraine to be taken over in a few weeks when there is bound to be more resistance? You would think atleast double or treble that time.

lack of natural barriers, the Ukraine, Belarus lands are flat which means very little places to hide for the insurgency. in Afghanistan the Taliban could hide out in network of caves and there is just no flatten mountains, the Vietcongs could utilize underground networks and dense forests to operate. One hope for Ukraine is urban warfare, Putin launched two miserable wars against Chechnya and they were decimated from…

Ukraine is tundra. Right now it's entering the muddy season.

Russia could only possibly even attack using airforce now, because anything on the ground is going to sink.

Ironically, Xi telling Putin to wait till the Olympics were over probably cost Putin the war, because of all the abandoned vehicles stuck in the mud.

There's a convoy with who knows how many vehicles but it stretches 40 miles and it's never digging out of the mud, most likely it'll be added to Ukraine's assets when things dry out.

Russia is leveling cities, but this is a WIN for urban warfar. In previous wars some people would level their own cities so they had better places to hide and setup snipers at.

Here's a good video outlying why Putin has already lost: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQ4hvLqNfqo

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#38

Post by jquery »

soperj wrote: post #21
yladiz wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling. Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they su…

>Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. How long did it take for the US to take Afghanistan?

Iraq was on the other side of the world from us, not next door, and we took that over in a matter of days.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#39

Post by nxm »

tablespoon wrote: post #32
CodeGlitch wrote: post #18

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

> Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. I doubt Ukraine will surrender as long as it can supply its forces with food, drinking water, and ammo. > As it stands the West can do nothing. The West can do a lot of things that it chooses not to do out of fear .…

Please elaborate on what else the West can do? No fly-zone is a non-starter

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#40

Post by pstuart »

soperj wrote: post #21
yladiz wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling. Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they su…

>Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them. How long did it take for the US to take Afghanistan?

Never.
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